Global Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[jimarilo] 03/5/2020 18:49

The early bird....;--)

[jimarilo] 03/5/2020 15:05

There seems to be a few websites of Namibia players in need of up dating, including the MME licence map. Could be with new potential partnerships and operators ahead there is not point updating until deals are concluded......thats what I would like to think ;-)

[yasrub] 03/5/2020 13:54

I just looked at Eco's map for licences and they have an error listing 2011A as Repsol/Tower/Arcadia not major but it's GBP's! Does look like there could be some activity in the next few months.

[jimarilo] 02/5/2020 09:40

Here is the link from late 2018, where Azinam farmed down their 42.5% interest in PEL44 to Exxon and leaving Azinam with 12.5%



Looking at the Azinam presentation again, slide 10 shows Exxon & Galp (who partner in the adjacent PEL82)financed a 3D acquisition in PEL44. "Galp acquired 986km² 3D seismic courtesy data over PEL 44 in 2018, this data is being given to the PEL 44 partnership at no cost."Since then Exxon have dropped out of that deal and walked away from PEL44. As confirmed to me by Mapstand



GBP offers twice the acreage and over double the potential at over 4.5Bln barrels as apposed to a potential still significant 2Bln barrels in PEL44. GBP acreage is also in the same fairway as Exxon Galp PEL82

There is obviously a joint interest here for GBP and Azinam to steer Exxon and Galp into PEL29 & 94

[jimarilo] 01/5/2020 14:53

I agree with both comments, looking at the current market cap, GBP would be a snip for a mid cap oiler let alone a major

Even with the BoD holding over 40%, wouldn't the company have to ask shareholders if an offer was acceptable ?

If an offer of 8p-12p was offered, I bet everyone would take it

The Peters, including Peter Hill have been involved in huge deals in the past and will want the maximum return

Azinam are backed by Seacrest and already have an alliance with Maersk, Halliburton and Petrofac, through the Seacrest backed Seapulse



If Azinam reversed into GBP, they have their route to market and satisfy the micro cap partner issue for the potential major involved

A solution that the Peters may see extracting additional value for shareholders, Azinam don't need an IPO, the major gets their acreage and the MME and Namcor are moving forward to first oil

Edit: I see Maersk announced today the Viking drillship has just completed it's contract in Myanmar. No word yet where the next contract is

[yasrub] 01/5/2020 14:08

Fair point on the Peters but I take the view if a significant major wants this acreage then having a junior partner just brings more problems down the line.

[squibno1] 01/5/2020 13:51

Not sure the Peters would want a complete take out.
They have been here too long not to want to see the results of drilling, I would think.

[yasrub] 01/5/2020 11:17

It simply IMO comes down whether you believe GBP's acreage will attract interest. My preference is a clean takeout of the company but equally possible a farm out with a % free carry. The company has never struck me as rampy and the current market cap most would acknowledge has hardly runaway! Any volume either way results in large movements as the free stock is fairly limited.

[swanvesta] 01/5/2020 10:56

ee, that's much more like it. All I was niggling at was that the valuation of £2m for 7% carried interest could be used to value GBP's *working* interest. But obviously if the 3D significantly improves prospectivity then that valuation would be obsolete anyway.

I'm just an autistic stick in the mud I guess.

[jimarilo] 01/5/2020 10:32

Agreed and Exxon & Galp are firm favorites for a farm in

After looking at an IPO late 2018, Azinam still need a route to market to finance an eight well campaign, a position in GBP, would be a cheaper solution

MM's look to be paying above the bid currently.........small free float playing apart again

[emptyend] 01/5/2020 09:18

??I'd expect to see GBP looking for c.15% carried interest and a two well carry....so a farminee would have 70% (which they would likely split down with ANother, so that the operator would have about 40%)

[swanvesta] 01/5/2020 08:13

BTW I appreciate your research - it must take some effort. If you're right you deserve a medal!

[swanvesta] 01/5/2020 07:58

Jim, I'm not 'deliberately' doing anything. And I've given you the opportunity to put me right, so what's the problem?

The questions coincide with a flurry of activity on the board, which may or may not accompany an uptick. And the dream has been there since before 25p, which was around the time I took a position and forgot about it. So please forgive the scepticism - it's had a long time to set in.

[jimarilo] 01/5/2020 06:11

You have deliberately taken that out of context...The mere fact we are talking about first oil, is like a dream for a micro cap like GBP and now we find ourselves on a list of wells to watch. Who would have thunk it...;--)

Namcor get a 7% equity free carry to first oil in exchange for 3D data. GBP hold 78% in licence PEL94 and 85% in licence PEL29, in which they will farm down in order to get a free carry

Regarding Azinam you can scroll back to see discussions on that subject, otherwise your the one getting a free carry

You and your incessant questions seem to always coincide with an up tick in the share price ....

Edit:Namibia due to come out of partial lock down 4th May

[swanvesta] 01/5/2020 01:12

"Extending the carry to first oil, seems like a dream for a micro cap"

The above seems to be my issue. It's Namcor that gets the benefit of the carry, not GBP!? What am I missing?

[swanvesta] 01/5/2020 00:54

I like to think I'm not too dim - pretty good with numbers, but not particularly knowledgeable on the intricacies of explo financing. Hence what might seem daft questions :-) It seemed to me GBP would not want to give away the amounts of carried interest that your valuation implied (assuming it costs rather more than an explo drill to get to first oil) but I could be completely wrong.

That's a pretty intriguing connection in the Azinam presentation. I take it Azinam could provide access to the funding required to drill Welwitschia?

[jimarilo] 30/4/2020 23:23

Someone elsewhere said the NVentures link showed Char with a well listed and said they have no plans to drill and pours cold water on Global's two wells

Here is the now famous Azinam presentation



If you take a look at slide 7 you will see eight wells that Azinam intend participating in. "Prospect W" is one of the wells listed as Azinam are partners with Char. So that keeps us straight

Slide 4 is where they mention targets 5&6 are in negotiation 5 has already been negotiated since then, with AEC and is also shown in the NVentures link. The well is Gazania-1 block 2B S/Africa.

Target 6 looks very similar in amount of barrels and cos as Welwitschia Deep.......conclusion of negotiations must be very close. Fingers crossed WD is target 6

[jimarilo] 30/4/2020 23:13

Swan I know your not as dim as your making out, I read your posts on PHAR, you know very well how a farm out works

GBP are looking to be fully funded for a 3D shoot and a well on both blocks, you would imagine some cash would be involved

Success or even on the run up to drilling if further funding is required there could be a raise at a much higher price than now

However the company may well be called Azinam, before we get that far imo

[swanvesta] 30/4/2020 21:38

OK, I get you. So GBP gives away 85-90% carried interest and ends up with 10-15% working interest and the cash to drill a couple of explo wells. But they're still on the hook for all further costs up to first oil?

[jimarilo] 30/4/2020 18:04

Swan, the 7% interest allows an approximate simple conservative valuation for GBP's current interest

PEL94

The Namcor 7% free carry to first oil was in exchange for the 3D data, which has a value at least £2 million of the shelf and probably cost $6-$7m if on a contract

GBP has 78% left to farm down for a free carry

78 divided by 7 = 11 x £2million = £22m

PEL29

GBP 85% interest divided by 7 = 12 x £2million = £24m

Currently the cost of a well in Namibia is around $15-$20m per well

It will be a significant position for micro cap GBP to hold on to 10-15% interest in two wells, initially targeting 800 million barrels in Welwitschia Deep PEL94 and initially targeting 1.75Bln barrels in Gemsbok PEL29

There is plenty of running room in these two blocks of over 4.5 Bln barrels mid case of prospective resources

[swanvesta] 30/4/2020 16:23

"The 3D data/7% must be worth minimum £2m"

You're forgetting the 7% has a free carry? GBP's 78% doesn't.