Gli Finance Share Discussion Threads

[future financier] 25/11/2016 14:22

It is an answer to post 491 - "what is NAV if you write off the investments in platforms?" - which is a fair question - but you then need to consider carefully the meaning of the answer!

[orinocor] 25/11/2016 11:02

can you clarify? Are you saying worst case, if the company goes bust, there will be a NAV of 24p left for shareholders?

[james188] 24/11/2016 19:41

You get to that about that figure if you write down the Pillar 2 Gross Asset Value to zero, without retiring any debt; see page 14 of the interim report as since tweaked by the 17th November RNS. I don't look at it that way, but it is one fairly crude downside analysis. After that, you could also reduce the Pillar 1 figure if you felt really negative and did not believe in those figures either.

This is really an analysis of what the net assets might be worth, more or less worst case, if the company goes bust. There are other ways to look at what is going on and what the company is worth, but it rather depends upon whether you think that the bad news is now all out.

[orinocor] 24/11/2016 18:55

LOL. Where does this NAV of 24p come from. Here's a reminder of the NAV. Clue its actually 36.82p,



17/11/2016 7:01am
UK Regulatory (RNS & others)

RNS Number : 3948P

GLI Finance Limited

17 November 2016

GLI Finance Limited

Publication of Net Asset Value

17(th) November 2016

The Company announces its unaudited NAV per share as at 30 September 2016 was 36.82p, a decrease of 0.68% from the NAV per share of 37.07p as at 30 June 2016.

[future financier] 24/11/2016 08:33

I agree james - SMEF should be the safe choice, P2P has been shown to have feet of clay, and GLIF ........ well who knows! I have a very small investment here because I know the stupid valuations that could apply to a successful platform. And if they are backing just one of these then we would see the share price go through the roof.

Otherwise the NAV of 24p could well be the cap on the valuation unless new management really are successful in creating something out of Pillars 1 and 3. Again an unproven hypothesis.

So GLIF is just a punt with petty cash that you can afford to lose!

I am annoyed that I didn't get out when the old management started gambling with my money as I had bought in to the old T2O (???? name?) model of investing in high yield corporate loans. But I was stupid enough to believe that old management knew what they were doing - and the baying masses convinced me to ignore my doubts about the wisdom of their strategy (???). Eventually I was convinced to go along for the ride as management assured us they would be able to maintain dividend whilst opening up the possibility of having a share in a successful platform. S much for that!

[james188] 23/11/2016 22:39

That would be P2P, which would not be my choice, although I appreciate the plus points that it enjoys. As per my previous post, I am concerned about some of the other aspects of that investment. All three investments actually have very different characteristics and risk profiles.

Of the three (and there are other comparables)I think that GLIF has the most potential upside by some distance, but if you think that management is not telling the truth or close to it, then that obviously rules it out immediately. SMEF is actually performing rather well. GLIF has been a very bumpy ride.

[danieldruff2] 23/11/2016 22:19

The one with the largest market cap of course. More institutional support and more wriggle room to get out of any difficulty.

[orinocor] 23/11/2016 18:53

GLIF
SMEF
P2P

If someone gave you 10 grand with the proviso you had to buy and hold shares in one of the above stocks, which stock would you choose?

[future financier] 23/11/2016 17:20

It is unfair to describe the presentation as misleading - for once the company is doing its best to present the situation fairly. Believe it or not Kenny, but I do research my investments - which is why 90% of them (including GLI) are showing me a profit. But you asked a straightforward question and I gave you the answer - what evidence do you have for the figure NOT being 24p.

[raiseworks] 23/11/2016 17:05

lol Kenny-welcome to GLI! The kicker is that they actual WROTE UP several investment platforms this year. I've wanted to short since 65 but the float is too small.

[kenny] 23/11/2016 16:44

So you do not do any detailed research before making an investment? How lazy is that. Hope not too many people are following your lead.

A NAV of 24p is clearly incorrect - anyone else completed a detailed analysis that does not rely on the company's misleading presentation?

[future financier] 23/11/2016 16:15

Its all clearly set out in the report (as you say - on page 14 not 16) and I cannot improve on their presentation! If you want to write down other assets to Nil you will obviously get a lower answer - but the answer to your original question was 24p.

[kenny] 23/11/2016 15:35

I think you mean page 14 of the interim report. Don't agree with your figure as that includes all sort of assets which may not be of any value. Also where do your allocate the £50.99m of liabilities which includes the preference shares which rank above the ordinary. Those liabilities alone materially reduce the Pillar One assets.

Unlike me, you are not lazy so perhaps you wish to try again and post your full figures?

[future financier] 23/11/2016 14:55

Its all on page 16 of interim report - 13p of 37p NAV @ 30 June if you are too lazy to look it up yourself!

hXXps://www.glifinance.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/GLI-Interim-Report-2016.pdf

[kenny] 23/11/2016 12:53

Thanks you raiseworks.

Please can someone post figures for what is the value of GLIF if the value of the equity interests in platforms is written down to nil?

Surely some investors have worked this out before investing in GLIF?

[raiseworks] 23/11/2016 12:32

Kenny-Finally someone asks the right questiom!!!

[orinocor] 23/11/2016 10:03

Just 18.89p to buy now.

No-one likes this stock.

[orinocor] 22/11/2016 18:08

hxxp://citywire.co.uk/money/the-growing-pains-of-high-yielding-p2p-trusts/a955188

[kenny] 18/11/2016 16:59

What is the value of GLIF if the value of the equity interests in platforms is written down to nil?

[james188] 18/11/2016 08:34

P2P, RDL and VSL are all investment trusts listed on the LSM who rely on a manager to invest in volume loans - all of them are currently much bigger than SMEF or GLIF. I think that the direct comparable is SMEF rather than GLIF, but there are significant differences. Whilst it is now rather out of date, it is worth looking at a sponsored research article - GLI Alternative Finance - Off and Running - available on the QuotedData.com. website and specifically the section headed Peer Group, which highlights some key differences. The analysis essentially still holds true, although there have clearly been significant events and changes in the market over the last 12 months.

For me, the avoidance of consumer loans by GLIF (and SMEF, for that matter) is a key differentiator. Although very popular, the litigation risk and evolving regulation in this area concern me. Specifically on GLIF, it is now a trading company with its own in house management rather than (as with the others) relying on an external manager - and expensive fee structure - and GLIF takes much more significant equity positions in platforms and now lends to them and not to borrowers sourced by those platforms on a P2P basis or (in the case of RDL) on a direct lending basis. So, horses for courses.

[gbill11] 17/11/2016 23:33

SMEF is 5% discount and 7.5% yield for comparison. I'm not familiar with the others but I'll check when I've time.

[cerrito] 17/11/2016 19:34

Brwo349
Other listed companies are VPC Speciality Lending(VSL);Ranger Direct lending(RDL);P2P Global Investments(P2P)
I have always meant to but never got round to doing work on these companies and this continues to be on my to do list.
Am very interested in any comments on how they compare with GLIF

[brwo349] 17/11/2016 18:28

that is a chart and a half

[brwo349] 17/11/2016 18:24

Are there any listed stocks that are in a similar business to this one? Comparing to the peer group is one way of valuing a company.

[gbill11] 17/11/2016 12:58

If they raised £7.1M at 31p on 11 August why are the shares now at 19p? I cannot see any reason for this. I checked the SMERSH (aka SMEF) share price to see if it had also collapsed but in fact its up 3% over the same time period.

Hard to fathom this stock but I've bought some today. An initial holding only. I'll need to get a better feel for the company before accumulating a sizeable holding.