Glencore Share Discussion Threads

[a2584728] 22/9/2017 08:02

Just added some more

[cdub1] 20/9/2017 16:43

Sky rockets in flight, afternoon delight!

[berber1] 19/9/2017 16:28

Zho, merci beaucoup pour la correction. I seem to be losing the bit of French I know. It must be my English influence.

[zho] 19/9/2017 11:40

Berber - try "qui ne risque rien n'a rien"

[berber1] 19/9/2017 11:32

Ken.. nobody is forcing you to read my opinion, it may be daft, but I do not go calling people daft when I do not even know Them. People have been talking about the end of the bull market for the past 3.5 years at least, yet it still has not happened. All I am trying to say is that trading techniques and methods have changed drastically and all this globalisation and the emerging new economic powers such as China, India , Russia ... have added new parameters and another dimension that is affecting the way we invest and has affected traditional markets. There will be bull And bear markets but not in the time scale we are used too. May be some people should try to think outside the Box and try to use their little grey cells, instead of following the herd.

[kenmitch] 18/9/2017 21:49

Berber.

Strange reaction to very interesting and genuine research posted by Losses. There have been bear markets, bull markets and market corrections throughout history, and there always will be. Unlike with the info posted by losses there will not be any evidence to back up your daft opinion! Another example of the rubbish posts too common on too many ADVFN bbs these days.

[berber1] 18/9/2017 20:31

Bear and bull market and market corrections are things of the past and even if they happen, they are usually shortish. These days markets move very fast with supercomputers and use of Algorithms, any move upwards or downwards is counteracted upon.
Hedge funds/ market makers use all the tricks in the books including influencing media to create volatility and create a market for trade. The only fear these days are the crashes in the scale of 2008. Even then Investors and hedge funds use it as an opportunity. So it better to be in the market if you are in the investment business as they say, who, who dares wins and "qui me risk risen n'a riven". These are my opinions do not take my word for it.

[losses] 18/9/2017 16:39

There seems to be a lot of discussion at the moment about the triggers for the next bear market – understandable given we have now seen 102 months of bull market in the US; the longest occurred from 1990 and lasted 115 months.Peter Oppenheimer has looked at 40 variables going back almost 200 years (starting with the Panic of 1837) to ascertain i) which are the best forward indicators of a bear market and ii) where we stand now.We use US data as it goes back the furthest, and a US bear market almost always results in a European bear market.Couple of things stood out to me:1) There are 3 different sorts of bear-market:Cyclical bear markets. The most common, typically driven by a rate cycle. Typically see price declines of 30% and last 2 years.Event-driven bear market. driven by an exogenous shock, eg war or oil spike. Typically see price declines of 30% and last for a brief period, avg 6 months.Structural. Driven by rapid unwinding of structural imbalances such as banking crises or financial bubbles. These are the worst – they typically see price declines of 50-60% & last 3-4 years.[cid:[e-mail]2961D0]2) Indicators are patchy at best, but (very low) unemployment is the most accurate.- There are a number of false positives, with "technical" factors the worst at forecasting a bear market (eg %-age at 52 week high, market breadth, S&P Vol).- In contrast, low unemployment has an accuracy of 83%, as does high Shiller P/E.- Combining 5 indicators (unemployment, inflation, yield curve, ISM and valuation) gives the most accurate picture: we are in the 67th %-ile on that basis, or a 62% chance of bear market over 12m.[cid:[e-mail]2961D0]3) Although we are close to the "red zone" we do not expect an imminent pull-back, just very low returns.- Low rates, and the market expectations of low rate in the future, mean that they are not likely to spike sufficient to generate a recession in the next 12 months

[losses] 18/9/2017 14:12

What's holding this back?

[kenmitch] 16/9/2017 15:43

MM conspiracy with big FTSE 100 share?? Exactly the sort of twaddle that is common on too many ADVFN bbs these days. Whole mining sector was down, and it is a volatile sector.

[cdub1] 16/9/2017 07:59

Yeah, a lot of the slide this week has to do with the surging pound as well. I don't see the pound holding it's strength, and believe we could easily see a reversal of the pound's gains next few weeks. Could be an excellent time to make a quick and easy 5% on foreign-income shares if reality returns to GBP.

Copper seems to be stabilizing at the 2.950 mark, I will see if this is the case Mon morn and will see how the pounds doing and may jump back in Mon.

[russell250] 15/9/2017 14:51

glencore earnings are in dollars so benefits with weaker pound
basic materials have struggled when n korea - fires missiles
china could face temporary isolation due to no action v NKorea

Glencore is great long term buy - I also see retraction back further - great new that Davis Herro added to over 5% for harris

I used to contribute so much more to this board but just full of twaddle like £5 before xmas or even £10 imminent that is pure ramping

I hold this stock with confidence

look forward to Glasenburg doing a deal shortly

[buoycat] 15/9/2017 12:59

Sounds like another MM conspiracy theory to me.

[joeall] 15/9/2017 08:13

Do you not think the rise in the £ has anything to do with it?

[cdub1] 15/9/2017 06:48

Copper struggling for support again this morning. Shorted GLEN yesterday but wanting to jump in at any moment, trouble is this share price seems to just follow what Mr Copper's doing.

If Mr Copper keeps tumbling then we will be in the 320's and 310's in no time, I will buy there no matter what and just forget about my shares and come back next year. In the meantime I'm just keeping an eye on copper prices and getting ready to pounce.

Remind me after this to never buy commodity shares again, you are at the will of the commodities gods and prices are either roaring or collapsing in this sector! It's too bad GLEN caught my eye.

[itr7] 14/9/2017 13:08

Hi cdub1 - Oil income not that high for GLEN compared to copper - but the good news is they don't have to sell all their copper at today's price so we have a classic over-reaction - I'm keeping my shares.

[a2584728] 14/9/2017 08:22

I have added 10k this morning.

[cdub1] 14/9/2017 07:21

All base metals taking a pounding in the markets but oil starting to make a comeback, anyone any idea on the proportion of oil-derived income in Glencore's revenue makeup? Might be enough to offset, or at least cushion against the copper price fall.

[karam] 13/9/2017 15:28

Really bad day

[a2584728] 13/9/2017 14:19

This will race to 400p on any news may do it over the next couple of week anyway

[cdub1] 13/9/2017 08:50

What is it with this share either sliding or soaring in "cornflake" time? Was going to do an "at best" last night but just squeezed in at market closing. I think the push for 3.80 needs a bit more good news, share wants to sit in the mid-late 3.60s. Price probably reserved because metals have dropped a bit.

[berber1] 12/9/2017 14:19

Exactly Gx so what is holding the share price down. It can only be convertible bond holders may. E shorting the share price to their advantage.

[gxgxx] 12/9/2017 13:07

IPO price does not mean a lot -
Original IPO price 530p with a market cap of about $58 billion
Todays's market cap is already at about $66 billion
So when (not if) Glencore achieves 530p share price against the market cap will be well above that of the original IPO valuation.
I still want £10 a share now. There is a lot more to this company than there was in 2011 that is a fact!

[bigbigdave] 12/9/2017 11:45

Agreed B&L, sometime next year hopefully.