Glencar Share Discussion Threads

[bongo bwana] 23/8/2011 11:35

Thanks for that 1W.

With every GF report GEX's decision to bale out is increasingly perplexing.

[1waving] 13/8/2011 12:22

From Gold Fields quarterlies, 11th July:--

From CEO opening statement, p1.
At the Yanfolila project in Mali the resource definition drilling
programme continued apace with four drill rigs turning. We expect to
complete a scoping study on this project in the third quarter of this
year.

From general report, p11.
Yanfolila
At the Yanfolila project in southern Mali (Gold Fields 85 per cent),
resource delineation drilling continued with four rigs on the Komana
East, Komana West and Kabaya South deposits, in parallel with other
elements of a scoping study which is on schedule for completion during
the September 2011 quarter. Target definition work and initial drilling
also continued on several other promising targets which are located
within a 20 kilometre radius of Komana East.
---------------

Yanfolila is now classed as project/resource development stage rather than exploration. No reserve/resource numbers
-- but they have given absolute minimum info on Yanfolila compared to other projects.
Has their interest gone down ? 85% ?

Not exactly informative.

Presentation PDF, p22, shows a little detail at Komana East with some excellent grades/widths there -- KRCD0243 – 13m @ 23.51g/t, KRCD0218 – 26m @ 11.69g/t

[share_shark] 20/6/2011 12:11

Dear Minesite subscriber,

Weekly Review

My old friend David Hargreaves, the gemstone specialist, also writes a weekly comment on the mining sector which is well worth reading. It will now get a wider circulation since brokers XCap Securities decided no actual recommendations on shares to buy or sell are included, like the weekly note from Ocean Equities. Common sense is now starting to pervade the world of compliance and private investors will welcome additional background information. Last week David wrote about political risk and as it would be difficult to cover this subject better, I got his permission to quote it extensively as political risk should be at the forefront of the minds of all investors.

As David points out, not too many nations are close to the top of the investor-friendly league nowadays as most of the competition seems to focus on the bottom slot. A year or three ago, no one would have questioned the credentials of Australia, Canada, USA, Chile, Peru, Bolivia, Namibia or Botswana just for starters. Good kindergarten reports were also pouring out for Tanzania, Mozambique, Colombia, whilst the '-stans' of central Europe were still having their nappies changed.

In detention, and rightly so, were Angola, DRC, Venezuela and much of West Africa. So, could an investor-explorer-developer pick and choose? To an extent, yes. You knew the risk and hoped to be rewarded accordingly if you got it right. But, now? Canada is still set fair but the rate at which First Nation braves pop their heads through the tundra is impressive and scary. Few could argue with the fiscal regime in the USA, but the environmental lobby is awesome. They won't let you knock the top off a mountain to mine coal inWest Virginia. Now Australia, without whose coking coal and iron ore India and China cannot do, is at war with itself as well as the miners. A 'super profits' tax is still mooted and the State of Western Australia thinks it should have the lion's share, since it mines most of the stuff.

South Africa is on the ropes. Its black empowerment policy is in tatters and there is a growing threat of nationalisation. Despite acute, long term power shortages, the call is for smelting at source.
This is capital intensive and creates only a modicum of jobs. Peru, huge in copper, silver and zinc has just elected a left wing ex-soldier as President, Mr Humala. The local stock exchange dropped 12.5 per cent with incumbent foreign miners leading the landslide. Word is he might nationalise or at least tighten the screws. Venezuela, Angola, DRC can be taken as read.

So who remain as safe havens? Namibia shot itself in the big toe by launching an unfunded State company to hold all essential mineral licences, whilst there are reports of Botswana doing similarly. Tanzania was being smiled upon until rumours of a super-tax began to circulate. It was enough to drop the shares of its major miner, African Barrick Gold by 7.8 per cent at the time and, though there have been denials since, the atmosphere has been poisoned.

Then there is the good news, at least for now. That emerging Indian Ocean-bound developer Mozambique has made no nasty noises. Zambia has stated unequivocally it will not move the goal posts and Chile is far too busy expanding other than to tinker around the edges. So investors are hardly spoilt for choice are they? Then for how long will those few choices remain sound? Until the next change of government or until the budget deficit becomes untenable probably. Pity the poor miner, who stares at a ten-year time gap from exploration to production, knowing he cannot pick-up his shaft and take it home.

Good stuff, David. Could not have put it better myself. But a little light creeps round the corner in the shape of the report by Adam Cooke , published today on Minesite, about a visit to Guinea and Mali where small explorers have done a bit of historical research. They know that mining companies in the past exploited countries in which they operated to the limit, while offering little in return. Now the realization has dawned that education by funding schools will help underwrite careers for the younger generation at the relevant mine or elsewhere in the world. So much more constructive that paying off local politicians in cash, which is then put to dubious use, as it also helps to promote more friendly attitudes towards the companies themselves. The world moves on and the crucial initiative, as so often , comes from the juniors.

[bongo bwana] 19/5/2011 10:52

Komana ALONE is 750,000 ounces.

[1waving] 19/5/2011 10:42

Gold Fields quarterlies this morning:--

Advanced drilling projects
At the Yanfolila project in southern Mali (Gold Fields 85 per cent),
resource delineation drilling continued on the Komana East and
Komana West deposits, while initial drilling was carried out on several
targets within a 20 kilometre radius of Komana East. Results continue
to be encouraging.

The fully audited and SAMREC 2007 compliant Inferred Mineral
Resource (100 per cent), based on the exploration drilling up to
December 2010, is summarised as follows:
Deposit Tonnes(Mt)Grade(g/t Au)Metal(koz Au)
Komana East 5.1 2.5 410
Komana West 4.0 2.6 330
Total 9.1 2.5 740

Note: Inferred Mineral Resources are reported in accordance with the South
African Code for the Reporting of Exploration Results, Mineral Resources
and Mineral Reserves, 2007 edition (SAMREC Code); reported without
dilution or ore loss within an optimised pit shell at a cut-off grade of 0.41
grams per tonne. Gold Fields commodity price of US$1,100 per ounce was
used in optimisation. Some figures may not add due to rounding.

The resource delineation drilling programme is continuing through the
June 2011 quarter in parallel with other elements of a scoping study to
be completed in the September 2011 quarter.
----------------------

[share_shark] 14/5/2011 17:56

The precious metals correction is here. Gold and silver are down 4% and 30% respectively. Gold and silver stocks, as should be expected, are down even more.

But here's the thing, precious metals stocks have been hit much harder than they should have been.

Right now is the best time to buy gold stocks in more than two years as a result. And they're poised to make another run of 30% in the next few months. Here's why.

The Time to Buy Gold Stocks

At the risk of stating the obvious, the relationship between gold and gold stocks has always been a strong one. Only during liquidity crunches or the height of speculative booms has the relationship reached extreme divergences.

Since the market bottomed in March 2009, however, gold and gold stocks have run very closely together. In the last 26 months gold is up 60% and gold stocks, as tracked by the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:GDX), are up a mere 67%.

That's pretty poor performance considering the leverage gold stocks have historically had to the price of gold. But it's also creating the best opportunity to buy gold stocks in two years.

The chart below shows what I mean:




The chart shows the relative performance of GDX to gold prices.

When gold prices rise and gold stocks don't immediately follow, the ratio rises. When gold prices fall or stay flat and gold stocks have "caught up," the ratio falls.

Right now, the ratio is at its highest point since April 2009. That means it's time to buy gold stocks.

Gold vs. Gold Stocks: The Tale of the Tape

Gold stocks have been walking up stairs over the past two years. They move up suddenly, flatten out or correct, then jump again, and over and over again. It's typical action for any bull market.

Because of this activity, the most of the money made in gold stocks came during a few brief periods in the last two years.

The table below shows that the majority of the upswing in gold stocks came at a time when the Gold/GDX ratio was at an extreme high like it is now:




The table shows the biggest moves in gold stocks over the past two years relative to gold prices.

These moves accounted for all of the gains in gold stocks in the past year.

Most importantly, each one of those moves came in the months immediately following the point at which the Gold/GDX ratio reached the same level it right now.

Buying Gold Stocks is the Contrarian Move Once Again

That's why right now is the best time to buy gold stocks in the past two years.

Warren Buffett said, "In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run it is a weighing machine."

Right now the market is voting against gold.

Gold stock valuations are indicative of the market's declining confidence in gold. The growing fear in the markets is sending "hot money" out of gold. And the thousands of newly-minted gold bugs are running for the exits right along with them.

Despite the downswing, the current correction and any further correction will only strengthen the fundamentals for gold.

The long-run outlook for the dollar isn't any stronger. The Fed has signaled it's not going to raise interest rates anytime soon. And if the markets turn sour, the Fed has laid the public relations groundwork to launch QE3 (although it will surely have a new name by that time).

Finally, the recent "safe haven" rush into treasury bonds has pushed interest rates and down and real interest rates even further into negative territory.

Although there's no way to tell exactly when the current correction will bottom out, if history is a reasonable guide, it will show once again that the window to buy gold stocks is open right now

[share_shark] 06/5/2011 10:27

Just for old times sake too. Have you seen this?.

The Glencore float is huge

As Alex Brummer notes in the Daily Express, "everything about the Glencore float is whopping". The prospectus, he says, "weighing in at 1,637 pages, is so big that it even dwarfs the stack of budget documents issued when Gordon Brown was Chancellor".

Of course, the investment bankers who are selling the shares probably want to be seen to be providing some good value for money. They are, after all, trousering a colossal £264m in fees.

The Glencore IPO (initial public offering) is aiming to raise almost £7bn. Right now we don't know exactly what the firm's starting market cap will be. But taking the mid-point of the indicated 480-580p per share price range, the overall value will come out at around £36.5bn.

That means a certain entry ticket into the FTSE 100 index. The company has already lined up enough 'professional' buyers to take up all the IPO stock. As many UK pension, tracker and exchange-traded funds will have to buy automatically afterwards, those investment bankers have more than enough firepower to ensure this is a successful float.

Should you buy in?

What really fascinates investors about Glencore is that it doesn't just trade commodities. It also owns a near-35% stake in Xstrata, the world's fourth-largest copper miner and fifth-biggest nickel producer.

With China's economic growth in particular going gangbusters, commodity producers have been one of the hottest parts of the market in the last two years. Since its December 2008 lows, the FT Mining index is up by more than 200%.

But here's where we come to the major jitter about the Glencore IPO. The firm makes more than half its profits from its mining activities. That means its earnings are highly geared to the level of demand for raw materials – particularly from the likes of China.

And the Chinese authorities are becoming ever more worried. The country's inflation rate, at over 5% and rising, is getting out of control. So they're slamming on the monetary brakes by both cutting back the amounts that banks can lend and also by raising interest rates.

The eventual effect on the economy could be nasty – a sharp slowdown could be on the way. Jeremy Grantham of GMO – who predicted both the 'Great Recession' and the rebound – reckons there's a high chance that "at least one wheel" will fall off China's economy over the next year, "and then commodity prices will decline a lot".

Nor is China the only worry. Other emerging economies such as Brazil and India are also in rising interest rate mode. If this works in slowing their economies too, demand for raw materials would be hit even harder.

Clearly this would all add up to bad news for Glencore, both for the firm's revenues and also its stock market rating. Further, lower metal prices would be likely to hit trading profits a bit too, although the company is a bit cagey about giving too many details on this score.

What does this all mean? Right now, Glencore is privately owned. It has 485 partners who'll all do very well indeed from the IPO. It could increase boss Ivan Glasenberg's worth to as much as £6bn.

And there's no doubt that the firm "is certainly plugged into far better information than virtually any other commodity investor", notes Devon Shire on Seeking Alpha. "They wouldn't be selling a portion of the company if they thought it'd be worth twice as much a year from now. So if it's trying to cash in before [the boom] breaks, investors would be silly not to pay attention".

It looks like Glencore may have marked a top in commodities

In other words, as John Stepek pointed out in Money Morning last month, it would be no surprise if the Glencore IPO marked the near-term top of the commodities boom. And in fact, it looks as though the IPO announcement may have marked it to the day – yesterday commodities suffered their biggest plunge in two years.

Sure, in the long run, as Grantham argues, resource prices look likely to climb even higher than their recent peaks as supplies run lower while the world's population climbs. And Glencore could prove to be a great way of playing this.

But for me, Damien Hackett at Canaccord Genuity summed it up best. The IPO may be "spectacularly successful", he says, but "not too many people have made money out of dealing with Glasenberg". Yet now "the market is going to do a deal with him".

In summary: if you have a stomach for it, you could make short-term money by buying in when the shares start trading and there's a rush to get into London's hottest new company. But don't fall in love with your profits – take them off the table while they're still there.

[share_shark] 06/5/2011 10:19

Hello Haydock !. Great to hear from you. Thank you for information. Do you have the epic code for Chips gold site please?.

[haydock] 06/5/2011 10:17

Just for old times sake:
They did sell out, just as the gold price was rising, which was very poor judgement.
However Goldfields really stitched them up, fought a very dubious battle.

I have moved my interests to S.America: S.Cruz Patagonia.
Handfull of Aim listed shares developing one of the worlds great new gold / mineral regions.
Still well off most peoples radar.

Make sure you visit Chipperfrd's small gold shares site,if you don't know it, for great technicals.
Regards Hay.

[share_shark] 06/5/2011 10:09

Thank you 1waving. You can bet your bottom dollar that the GEX, CEO and other directors are sitting pretty working for..???.

[1waving] 03/5/2011 11:36

Gold Fields -- Mali advanced exploration to 31st Dec 2010, slides 7 & 8.

Adds detail plus an interesting survey map.

"At Solona, an 8 by 3 kilometres gold-in-soil anomaly is being tested
by aircore drilling with encouraging early results."

[bongo bwana] 13/4/2011 11:25

Will check it out 1W and thanks again.

[bongo bwana] 13/4/2011 09:47

Many thanks for this update 1W.

I always look forward to these even if they leave me grinding my teeth and ready for a doctors prescription LOL. Its enough to drive a man to drink and then some.

What possessed GEX to surrender their position so cheaply!!!!!!
I wonder are Hugh Mc and Kieran H working for GF now ?????

[1waving] 06/4/2011 11:21

Gold fields Exploration presentation, Mali/Yanfolila from slide 13 onwards :--



An emerging camp in elephant country

• Significant land position (180 x 60km)
• Property consolidation ongoing
• Extensive mineralisation across entire property
• Drill intensive project - 80,000 m in 2011
• Main focus on Komana Camp on South of property
• Targeting a 200koz p.a. starter project from 1.5 - 2.0moz initial reserve
• Scoping study Q3 2011

Targeting 2 moz within 20 km radius ( of Komana )

Komana East -- High grade open pit opportunity
• Improved geological understanding
• Several parallel structures
• High grade mineralisation at surface
• KRC0150: 30m @ 5 g/t and 4m @ 9.09g/t
• Drilling on new targets delivering positive results (Guirin West and Gonka)
• Gonka – potential for high grade in basalt
• Phase 1 and 2 drilling complete
• Revised interpretation being completed

[share_shark] 22/3/2011 18:43

Thanks cert.

Yes have changed email addy.


.

[bongo bwana] 18/3/2011 16:05

Thanks SS.

[share_shark] 18/3/2011 16:03

BB.In answer to your question elsewhere.


;-). News in weekend press?.

[share_shark] 11/3/2011 13:26

No matter.
It will keep, no doubt.

[share_shark] 11/3/2011 12:19

Well I am sure you will make the right move .


Very good luck to you both

[bongo bwana] 11/3/2011 09:07

No but the remaining staff will have to carry the load and there seems to be a new layer of responsibilities added every month. So I will be doing my calculations.