Gsk Share Discussion Threads

[montyhedge] 18/1/2019 13:24

Should be over 1600p for fair value. Just my view undervalued around 1500p.

[dr biotech] 17/1/2019 15:33

I can’t really much that’s not in the public domain. They were working in some extra data last time I was there(Oct). As you can I imagine they don’t share a lot with third parties such as myself who aren’t directly involved. They have made a lot of people redundant though I think that’s just part of their normal business. Their top management are probably the most overpaid in the pharma industry - there are also pictures of the CEO everywhere, bit of a cult of personality that I haven’t seen at other places.

[wbecki] 17/1/2019 14:53

It's going to be interesting to see how GSK plays out.

Suspect selling out not a good call myself either..but time will tell.

[tradermichael] 17/1/2019 14:10

Yes, monty, I also read that Seeking alpha report - the guy made the best case for buying in my opinion!

[zicopele] 17/1/2019 14:08

GSK reckon they bought Tesero on the cheap.

[montyhedge] 17/1/2019 13:57

WBecki
What a idiot that guy selling, Walmsley about to put GSK on a great growth path.
Dividend cheque on the doormat every 13 weeks, thats all you need to know, now with growth coming as well.

[wbecki] 17/1/2019 13:53

Why I've Sold Glaxo Despite Its Attractive 5% Dividend Yield

[essentialinvestor] 17/1/2019 12:39

For anyone interested, detailed article by John Kingham on Seeking Alpha -
Why I sold GSK. Published today.

[essentialinvestor] 17/1/2019 12:24

There has been little in the cast of pipeline advances of late?,
fair comment ...

[alphorn] 17/1/2019 10:23

DrB - do you know the issues with the Mylan product? Which version are they targeting?

[dr biotech] 16/1/2019 17:30

Vaccines don’t really have generic copies in the way that other medicines do either, so the patent cliffs aren’t so crucial. Just google generic vaccines for some decent articles. They are lower margin though.

Surprised Mylan haven’t updated the market on their generic advair yet. That’s a few months later than planned already. I know the people working on that in the uk..

[essentialinvestor] 16/1/2019 17:25

The estimated peak revenue may be in £ rather than USD, we are already
near £700-750 million.

[alphorn] 16/1/2019 17:12

Monty - that was not the point. A generic drug is (bio) equivalent to a brand-name product in dosage, strength, route of administration, quality, performance, and intended use etc.

The market penetration of generic launches (once the main drug goes off patent) can be extremely rapid and is a huge market (around USD 200bn in 2015 and growing at a CAGR of around 10.8 % from 2016).

[zicopele] 16/1/2019 17:03

They are really hyping it in USA. Its shortage is being blamed by democratic senator for NY on shutdown.

[montyhedge] 16/1/2019 16:54

GSK vac 95% effective I thought I read, good luck any company trying to compete with GSK product.

[alphorn] 16/1/2019 16:33

Tm - thx for your replies.

I had read that a re-vaccination after 3yrs (?) may be recommended. Think still under consideration and separate from the initial doses. Will google when I have time.

I have some knowledge on Pharma IP and the layers of IP protection that are applied to the entities, process etc. Do you know when there could be the first date for generic competition for Shingrix?

[zicopele] 16/1/2019 16:28

That sounds reasonable based on proposed increase in production

[montyhedge] 16/1/2019 16:16

We know Shingles vac already blockbuster 750m pounds, 1 billion dollars thats classed as blockbuster status, this will be a double blockbuster 2 billion dollars coming years easily. 1 in 3 will get shingles.

[zicopele] 16/1/2019 16:10

Currently in Belgiuom but French facility being upgraded.

[montyhedge] 16/1/2019 16:07

Shingles vac a blockbuster as we know, I paid 130 pounds for private shingles jab.

[tradermichael] 16/1/2019 15:47

erm, isn't it made in Belgium?

[zicopele] 16/1/2019 15:14

Upgrading French facility for this aim

[zicopele] 16/1/2019 15:10

Significantly more than 1bn if they intend to produce vaccines in high teens of millions for USA market.

[tradermichael] 16/1/2019 13:57

Alphorn:
The situation wrt IP on vaccines is often complex, and I suggest that for Shingrix there may exist multiple elements of patent cover.

Just as there are many forms of vaccines and components to vaccines-particular compositions, delivery systems, components, and distribution networks-there are a variety of intellectual property (IP) protections applicable for vaccines. IP rights such as patent, copyright, trademarks, plant breeders' rights, and trade secrets may all be applicable to vaccines. Thus, discussion of IP rights and vaccines should not begin and end with the application of one IP right to a vaccine. The discussion should engage considerations of multiple IP rights applicable to a vaccine and how these can be utilized in an integrated manner in a strategy aimed at supporting the development and distribution of the vaccine. Such an approach to IP rights to vaccines allows for the integrated rights to be considered in light of the justifications for protecting vaccines with IP rights, as well as the issues relating to specific IP rights for vaccines, such as compulsory license regimes, available humanitarian purpose IP credits, etc. To view vaccines as the subject of multiple IP protections involves a refocusing, but the outcome can provide significant benefits for vaccine development and distribution.

[essentialinvestor] 16/1/2019 13:34

It's estimated at around $1 billion in revenue a year, Adavair it ain't!,
Helpful though.