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GIP Gippsland

2.125
0.00 (0.00%)
28 Mar 2024 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Gippsland LSE:GIP London Ordinary Share AU000000GIP1 ORD SHS NPV
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.00% 2.125 - 0.00 00:00:00
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
0 0 N/A 0

Gippsland Share Discussion Threads

Showing 4601 to 4625 of 4725 messages
Chat Pages: 189  188  187  186  185  184  183  182  181  180  179  178  Older
DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
16/8/2011
07:58
result of placing ...
marksnsparkle
11/8/2011
16:21
I was intending to take up my allotment but found myself short of A$ and distinctly shaken by the market. I should imagine that Mr. Gandel will find, for better or worse, that he ends up with most of the new shares.
varies
11/8/2011
09:45
next Tuesday we get an update on the placement ... i.e. notification to ASX on shortfall of shares

I am assuming that despite the stock market turmoil the placing has gone ahead

marksnsparkle
03/8/2011
13:58
Very much so MS. You can be sure this cr--k Gandel has not changed for the better.
joan of arc
03/8/2011
12:46
Good news timed for the day after the rights issue has closed ... a bit sneaky
marksnsparkle
03/8/2011
07:36
shame its on a bad day to bury good news (-;
hiijinx
03/8/2011
06:44
Finally - some actual mining is in motion!!
chipperfrd
01/8/2011
13:55
JoA,

Generally, these sorts of NPVs are relatively conservative estimates of actual forward value. It more often than not becomes a case of how big the premium to NPV is applied to a stock/project.

Basically, the Sn price would need to halve to get back to the current share price

The IRR is insensitive to shares issued. It is purely based on the project cash flows after costs compared to the CAPEX required to finance the project.

Where the equity comes in would be at the rolling EPS level - which looks pretty good on my LoM model.

Frankly, the Heemskirk project might well attract a buy-out anyway as it is at pretty good grades and offers substantial potential for expansion. I am quite tempted to grab a holding in Stellar itself given the fundamentals for tin.

On the downside, costs in Oz are rising with their A$ and inflation. As Tin is marketed in US$ we have to be careful of the narrowing margins that will occur because of those rising costs in A$. However, in terms of GP£ we will benefit from rising Oz equity prices - so it is a bit of a trade-off!

If it gets to a feasibility study then there may well be an offtake agreement with funding linked to a tin pricing agreement (sort of forward sales/hedging set up). This might well be an issue if A$ costs rise against fixed production revenues - but this is all some way off.
Chip

chipperfrd
01/8/2011
13:40
Thanks for the trouble chip. What NPV would take you back to the current share price and how sensitive is your IRR to a much larger Equity %?
joan of arc
01/8/2011
11:16
JoA,

Re Heemskirk:

Using figures from scoping study, ie
- Mine life ~ 7.6 years
- Mining dilution ~ 15%
- ROM grade ~ 0.93%
- Treatment rate ~ 600ktpa
- Recovery ~ 70%
- Concentrate grade ~ 50%
- Tin in concentrate ~ 3,906tpa
- Tin price US$29,000/t (less 10% for smelting)
- FOREX £/$ ~ 1.6
- OP cash costs ~ US$12,780/t tin
- CAPEX ~ US$108m

I have done a NPV based on (10%) discounted cash flows over LoM using the above figures for production estimates.

With tin price flat over LoM the NPV(10) is c. US$79.5m @ 30% IRR for the entire project.

Assuming GIP's attributable drops to 30% under the Stellar execution of their option, then GIP's share of the NPV is US$23.8m. This is equivalent to 2.95p (A$ 4.43c) after tax.

The pretax NPV of the project is c. US$155m.

Applying a 5% CAGR to the tin price over the LoM the GIP share rises to c. 7.47p using the total shares after current rights issue.

Both Stellar and GIP are small cap stocks so raising the US$108m CAPEX will need to be pre-dominantly via bank debt or with an alliance with a tin off-taker. Although there will almost certainly be an equity raising as well.

If this were to be a 70:30 debt/equity split then GIP's share would be US$9.7m.

To check my NPV estimates I have also tried a different approach by working a series of discounts on the current in-situ tin resource (I have ignored the silver, etc).

ie.
Gross in-situ value ~ US$1,408m
GIP's attrib @ 30% ~ US$422m
After mining dilution of 15% ~ US$359m
After process recovery of 70% ~ US$251m
Potential profit @ 20% of revenue ~ US$50m
This works out at c. 3.9p/share after rights issue.

Stellar are likely to increase the overall resource as they have yet to drill at lower levels. However, at c. 30% IRR the project already looks pretty good.

GIP have a 40% free carry up until a feasibility study and must also arrange financing for 50% of GIP's share of development costs once a FS stage is reached. So GIP has no current ongoing commitment and can focus it's meagre resources on Abu Dabab Ta and alluvial tin.

Clearly a risk given recent BoD shenanigans - but there would appear to be real underlying value (to me) even without the potentially much much larger Ta project.

Gandel is under-writing the rights issue so will almost certainly have a larger stake once the dust has settled. However, to move either of the projects forward he will need substantial backing from banks and the market so I consider the risk of the company being taken private is limited. With the amount of 'skin' he will have in this stock his interests will be aligned with shareholders whether he likes it or not.

Given all of the above I have decided to take up rights (be it on my own head!).

Regards
Chip

chipperfrd
01/8/2011
09:49
Chipper, show us your figures, please. Do they allow sufficient for funding or certain further dilution?
joan of arc
30/7/2011
10:58
My broker has emailed to inform me that the option to take part in the rights issue is open until 12:00 Tuesday.

I have done some numbers on the Heemskirk project and estimate it should be worth at least twice the current mkt cap of GIP on it's own.

I understand the risks in this share and have no confidence in the BoD but I am minded to take up my rights just to deny Gandel my particular share of the rights. Probably biting of my nose to spite my face - but whatever!!
Chip

chipperfrd
27/7/2011
12:19
Here is the link to the latest announcement.
chipperfrd
27/7/2011
08:57
I sold out some time ago but received an email from there site with drilling results today. Worth signing up for if you are still interested in these.
yangou
27/7/2011
08:00
I don't know whether to sell my holding or keep.

What are you guys doing? They've lost 40% in value this year...and I'm losing faith in management.

Why should investors keep hold of them?

pallys
22/7/2011
11:19
Minor point on page 61. If Gandel gains effective control of the company he states that his current intentions are not to redeploy any of "the fixed assets of the company". That's okay then - he can only help himself to all the cash and any other current assets, like before!! Oh, and it is only his "current" intention, so in a year's time, say, all bets are off again. I mean he is not committing to Jack sh-t.
joan of arc
22/7/2011
10:37
Supplementary prospectus ...
marksnsparkle
15/7/2011
13:22
Rights Issue Timetable Corrections ...
marksnsparkle
15/7/2011
10:47
Well done Gandel. Now you've got the price down to 2.7c you can mop all the rights that no one wants. Next step will be to take the company private and make the shares totally worthless - the final coup de grace!!
joan of arc
12/7/2011
13:01
$5 Million fund-raising to be done at 2.7 cents, offer is open to all shareholders and will be underwritten by Gandel ...

Announcement ...


71 Page Prospectus ...


Appendix 3B

marksnsparkle
09/7/2011
15:24
JoA - it was released at 1pm on Friday.
chipperfrd
09/7/2011
10:41
Joan of Arc .. don't no, but I think they usually release news after the close to keep the playing field level for there UK shareholders
marksnsparkle
09/7/2011
10:11
We have indeed been here before.
This is a very slow striptease with a tired model whose postures have ceased to titillate even the most susceptible punter.
Leave the room now and you might miss something. Or you might not.

varies
08/7/2011
23:11
Well spotted MS. Do you know if this came out after the Aussie market closed or is the market just ignoring this?
joan of arc
08/7/2011
19:37
Independent Calculation of Abu Dabbab Project Economics ...


Says they are talking to an investment bank and if all goes well financing will be achieved by the end of the year ... its either good news or deja vu

marksnsparkle
Chat Pages: 189  188  187  186  185  184  183  182  181  180  179  178  Older

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