Genosis Share Discussion Threads

[alftupper] 05/8/2007 14:18

If only one shareholder at the AGM it must have been you Cerrito or are you on the inside ?

[cerrito] 02/8/2007 18:41

AGM
Only shareholder there on Tuesday. Got good vibes about the board. The Chairman does appear to be a strong character.
Asked why Boots bothered with them as their sales were so small. The reason apparently is that this is a unique product and Boots have a 70% share in the overall fertility market which is rapidly growing. Deal terminates in Nov 08 by which time one should know if there is a deal here.
Working capital is under control; inventories do need watching given their supply chain but they ship to the US on 30 days shipment so receivables should not represent a problem.
I mentioned that they had a very strong scientific advisory board which was necessary but not sufficient and the key was marketing. US man has appropriate marketing experience especially with doctors-see below.. Very happy with the work done by their US PR firm Weber Shandwick in getting them media access. The role of doctors is also important. Potential clients tend to discuss this with their doctors who also play am key role in getting males engaged and engaged early. Overcoming the reluctance of males to participate is/will be key in this type of couples diagnostics.

The media coverage in the US is necessary but not sufficient- just look at the fact that good media coverage in the UK last year did not translate into sales and the comment in the Trading update about ordering levels in June makes one wonder.
Good to see that sales in the first semester 2007 were so far ahead of last year's total of £227K.
Probably will wait till the interims out before looking to buy more but I see no reason to sell.
A close examination of the cash flow will be vital. At 311206 they had £3.2m cash; at 30607 £3.6m cash but had raised £2.3m gross-£2m net?- which suggests a six month cash out flow of £1.6m. The fact that 607 cash is 75% of their marcap is meaningless. Nevertheless they need this cash cushion as sales may be slow to take off.
One thing that concerns me is they are operating in emotionally a very sensitive area and difficult to predict how humans will re-act, and the comment about orders in June being below expectations spooky. Also I suppose that once you have had a test you do not buy another kit to have another test.

[cerrito] 13/6/2007 16:04

I had planned to go to the egm but something came up at the last moment.
I will make every effort to go to the AGM as this is the kind of company where the quality of management is key and while eye balling is not perfect at least it helps.
Many questins :what exactly where the problems last year which made sales so difficult? How do we know they have mastered them and why are they committing so much money to the US before they have the Uk sorted. I am surprised at Boots' patience...be interesting to see if Boots wants to keep the arrangement under new management.
This has shades of two AIM disasters for me- Provalis trying to break into the US market with a diabetes product which had such a short shelf life thatit could not be sold in the US and Hill Station which did not raise enough money and has been hobbled by a lack of cash ever since.£2m seems too small an amount to support US adventire-both the $5m marketing costs this year and working capital investment required.
No desire to buy till I can get a handle on these questions..but no need to sell either.

[lord santafe] 10/6/2007 16:07

Well worth me finding the rights issue at 13p now the price has shot up from 14p to 17p. Long term looks like 50p, so I better find the forms.

[cerrito] 10/6/2007 16:04

anyone going to the wednesday egm??

[grampian2] 19/5/2007 09:23

Just back from holiday and checked in.

What a terrible RNS. I really had hoped for a lot better than this.

In two minds whether to dump and try and recover my losses elsewhere.

[lord santafe] 18/5/2007 08:41

Terrible, but at least a long term one for me. I paid 17.2p at the time for 2 grands worth.

[monis] 18/5/2007 08:08

I bailed out after a few days when it was not moving up with a very slight loss, pleased i did now.

[canny lass] 18/5/2007 08:06

Monis,

Very disappointing.

Wish i had now bailed a month or so ago.

[monis] 18/5/2007 08:01

not good results.

[canny lass] 18/5/2007 08:00

Mid price 15.5p, just as i predicted.

[smarkmmm] 18/5/2007 07:46

From the fundraising blurb:


"International Biotechnology Trust plc, SV Life Sciences Fund I, SV Life
Sciences, Managers LLP and/or its associated entities, Schroder Ventures Manager
Limited and Schroder Ventures Manager Inc. are deemed to be a concert party
under the definitions of the Takeover Code. Under the terms of a Subscription,
International Biotechnology Trust plc has conditionally agreed to subscribe for
11,538,461 Subscription Shares representing approximately 34.61 per cent. of the
issued share capital of the Company immediately following Admission, as enlarged
by the issue of such shares. Following the Subscription, the Concert Party will
have a beneficial interest in 15,946,950 Ordinary Shares, representing
approximately 47.83 per cent. of the issued share capital of the Company
immediately following Admission.

Subject to approval of Independent Shareholders, the Panel has agreed to waive
the obligation to make a general offer that would otherwise arise as a result of
the Subscription."

[canny lass] 18/5/2007 07:24

Quite a mark down on the new subscribed shares, 13p against current 17p/19p spread.

This placing would double the market value of the company, therefore mid price as it currently stands would be adjusted to about 15.5p

It will be interesting to see what reaction we get from the market this morning.

I can see some possible red today.

[canny lass] 16/5/2007 12:36

Is there a deadline by which time interim results must be announced or does that only apply to final year results?

Need some news to give one a bit of a kickstart.

[canny lass] 09/5/2007 08:07

Lord Santafe

I bought recently on a high, average about 23p. Got quite a bit to go before i'm in profit with them. Hopeful though we should see some positive move forward soon.

[lord santafe] 09/5/2007 07:52

Very true, there is no need for me to ramp these since sadly I sold my trading ones. I saw GNOS as a big risk, so just got my Barclays ones, and hopefully they fly since my mate went big time into them at 19 and 20p on my advice.

[canny lass] 09/5/2007 07:47

Lord Santafe

i think 30p is a little optimistic.

If we get above 20p we would be doing well.

[lord santafe] 09/5/2007 07:23

Fantastic news today. Should close at least 30p by end of the day.

[devbod] 29/4/2007 17:25

My guess is that the results will be delayed until the funding for the US launch/advertising is sorted out. Given thats an equity deal it will presumably be issued at some discount to the current price so I suspect that will act as a brake to any rise. The first US sales data will be the real share price driver.

Being a little more cautious on this since buying at 120p and selling at 73p for a near 40% loss. A failure in the US will take this to zero.

[lord santafe] 29/4/2007 16:24

Thanks Canny Lass,

I am expecting these to go up into the high 20's or more on day of results. Probarly forcing me to buy more before the market opens if the results are as impressive as I feel they are going to be.

[canny lass] 27/4/2007 14:01

Not looking very likely.

If Company true to their word then Monday it has got to be.

Mind you, the Trading Statement back in January was not date specific and only said 'by the end of April'. If it ran into early May i don't presume they would be breaching any agreements.

Hopefully 7am on Monday.

[lord santafe] 27/4/2007 11:44

No results today, must be on Monday then.

[canny lass] 26/4/2007 10:29

Nice to see a few buys trickling through before the results release.

[lord santafe] 25/4/2007 17:51

Thanks Canny, I hope so too. Just do not understand why this share is not as popular as shares like Cellcast, Leisure and Gaming etc when they show so much potential and results so soon.

[canny lass] 25/4/2007 14:32

Lord Santafe

You look like the only buyer today.

I hope your investment reaps you a reward.