Genesis Emerging Markets... Share Discussion Threads

[yikyak] 18/6/2011 17:57

Forex:
"We wanted to make you aware of some upcoming changes to FOREX.com's product offering. As a result of the Dodd-Frank Act enacted by US Congress, a new regulation prohibiting US residents from trading over the counter precious metals, including gold and silver, will go into effect on Friday, July 15, 2011.

In conjunction with this new regulation, FOREX.com must discontinue metals trading for US residents on Friday, July 15, 2011 at the close of trading at 5pm ET. As a result, all open metals positions must be closed by July 15, 2011 at 5pm ET."

[yikyak] 06/6/2011 08:42

I'm not that much of a trader really bamboo and do use charts for entry points but as a rule it's all about the management/fundamentals for me. I agree some more weakness and then I believe in the Autumn (especially gold stocks) are going to scream higher.

I pulled out of AIM/UK markets years ago and just do the Canadian and Oz markets now, not only because I didn't want to be denominated in GBP back then, which proved a good decision, but mainly because............

I don't hold gss either but had a nice run with it in the early years.

[bamboo2] 05/6/2011 23:43

yikyak, no problem. gss lurks in my favs. not a holder though.
goldwise, i currently keep gal and gpm.
perhaps we could discuss the weekly hui chart here!
i feel there is still some negativity to work through with the gold stocks, but hui has major support at 500, so a 10% stop loss from around now could work well.

[yikyak] 05/6/2011 10:56

Hi bamboo, you've discovered my dump thread, lol. You didn't want it back as the GSS thread did you?

[bamboo2] 28/5/2011 22:56

yikyak, thats a good one. laughed out quite loudly.

[yikyak] 22/8/2008 20:17

Long term gold prediction chart from sinclair. (2007-2011)

[yikyak] 06/8/2008 10:32

long term gold - support 850

[yikyak] 29/7/2008 10:55

Black Monday SM Crash - What happened to $POG and $XAU
(homerun) Jul 28, 11:24

in days that preceded/followed the stock market crash
known as Black Monday (10/19/87) this is what happened to
the $POG and $XAU:

DATE $POG $XAU

10/02/87 454 148
10/09/87 462 147
10/15/87 466 141
10/16/87 465 132
10/19/87 481 117
10/20/87 464 96 (89 low)
10/21/87 467 108
10/22/87 472 106

notice that $POG was rising modestly while $XAU was
falling just prior to that historic day.

[yikyak] 18/7/2008 22:24

During the past 60 years bear markets have fallen on average of 25% (per one Internet source). Consequnetly, the current bear could see the Dow decline to at least 10,600 to 10,650 (note the recent low was 10,828). Note: this does NOT mean it could not go lower...one must remember the 1973/74 bear saw stocks drop 50%.

Here is an excellent review of past bear markets.

When Bear Markets End by Jeff Fischer (written in 2002)

How common are bear markets? Did you know that they occur, on average, once every five years? How much does the stock market usually decline in a bear market? And for how long? These questions answered, and many others, in our candid look at the beast -- the bear



Yet another view of past bear markets


And...

What to expect in a bear market. Living through a bear market is not fun. Since 1926, the average bear market -- typically defined as a drop of 20% or more -- has lasted 1.3 years. As measured by Standard & Poor's 500-stock index, stocks have plummeted an average of 33.5% during those bear markets, according to Jim Stack, president of InvesTech Research, in Whitefish, Mont. And that excludes the 86% decline from 1929 to 1932 that ushered in the Great Depression.

History is also testament bear market rallies have averaged 20.5% bounce from its recent low. This means if indeed a bear market rally is evolving, and the bounce reproduces the average 20.5% gain, then the Dow might challenge 13,048 before it again reverses downward to continue its bear run. In summary I believe Dow stocks will rally for the next 5-8 weeks.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


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[yikyak] 02/7/2008 18:40

GG's forming a flag pattern on textbook diminished volume
(Lincoln) Jul 02, 12:05

A breakout at bout 48 should propel it to the next price goal of 57.



But GG doesn't stop there. P&F suggests a target price of 72 on a double top BO.




Likewise HUI is tracing out a flag pattern with an indicated BO at 463 and a near term price target of about 530.



However, P&F is calling it HUI 588.



Three BEST profitable strtegies:

1- buy the dips, and
2- BUY THE DIPS, and
3- Remember #1 & #2

[yikyak] 28/6/2008 11:10

"The news forced Blackmont Capital analyst Richard Gray to downgrade Golden Star from "hold" to "sell." He cut his price target by $1 to $2.75. "While the company believes these power costs should be closer to the $0.14/kWh level, we believe the decision to increase the costs is a significant blow to the company's ability to survive," the analyst said in a note."

[yikyak] 16/6/2008 16:46

Global tier I gold stocks





Stock
From
From
Value


price
high*
low*
USD bn

Goldcorp
USD 38.46
-16.9%
83.1%
27.32

Polyus
USD 63.00
-21.3%
61.1%
12.01

Harmony
USD 11.11
-27.2%
32.1%
4.48

Lihir
AUD 2.91
-34.6%
7.4%
5.21

AngloGold Ashanti
USD 31.96
-34.9%
9.6%
11.09

Barrick
USD 38.55
-29.6%
38.7%
33.61

Newcrest
AUD 26.77
-33.9%
29.0%
11.40

Gold Fields
USD 11.13
-43.2%
2.9%
7.27

Kinross
USD 18.09
-34.0%
83.3%
11.13

Newmont
USD 47.01
-18.3%
23.7%
20.52

Buenaventura
USD 62.03
-27.7%
99.5%
8.53

Freeport-McMoRan
USD 123.30
-3.1%
83.8%
47.25

SPDR Gold Trust ETF
USD 85.83
-14.5%
35.4%
16.93

Tier I averages/total

-26.1%
45.3%
216.75

Weighted averages

-22.4%
48.4%








TIER II
Stock
From
From
Value


price
high*
low*
USD bn

Zhongjin
CNY 46.37
-70.9%
4.7%
2.38

Iamgold
USD 5.85
-43.9%
2.5%
1.73

Simmer & Jack
ZAR 4.34
-45.1%
17.3%
0.57

Yamana
USD 14.00
-29.8%
66.7%
8.77

High River
CAD 1.66
-52.6%
3.7%
0.53

Eldorado
USD 8.06
-7.4%
148.0%
2.78

Agnico-Eagle
USD 63.26
-24.2%
87.9%
9.09

Centerra
CAD 6.40
-60.2%
102.5%
1.43

Randgold Resources
USD 37.65
-32.9%
80.7%
2.87

Shandong
CNY 46.02
-61.5%
33.4%
2.34

Peter Hambro
GBP 12.94
-23.3%
52.2%
2.05

Hecla Mining
USD 8.20
-37.6%
24.6%
1.04

Golden Star
CAD 2.96
-32.4%
11.7%
0.72

Franco-Nevada
CAD 21.75
-7.4%
59.6%
2.25

Fresnillo
GBP 5.10
-11.4%
4.5%
7.12

JSC Polymetal
USD 8.40
-14.7%
86.7%
2.65

Kazakhmys
GBP 15.50
-21.2%
63.2%
13.73

Tier II averages/total

-33.9%
50.0%
62.04

Weighted averages

-32.0%
50.9%








TIER III
Stock
From
From
Value


price
high*
low*
USD bn

Western Goldfields
CAD 2.21
-46.5%
27.7%
0.31

Great Basin
CAD 3.27
-14.6%
65.2%
0.71

Sino Gold
AUD 4.91
-44.6%
25.3%
1.29

Alamos
CAD 6.40
-23.8%
32.8%
0.63

Highland
GBP 1.66
-34.2%
122.5%
1.05

Pan Australian
AUD 0.98
-21.6%
110.8%
1.32

Kingsgate
AUD 5.40
-10.9%
61.7%
0.47

Int'l Mining
CAD 5.15
-22.6%
12.0%
0.51

Allied Gold
AUD 0.63
-38.8%
80.0%
0.22

First Uranium
CAD 6.36
-48.3%
7.4%
0.86

Novagold
CAD 7.94
-60.9%
34.6%
0.86

Pan African
GBP 0.05
-47.6%
4.9%
0.11

Citigold
AUD 0.29
-47.2%
5.6%
0.18

Jaguar
CAD 10.20
-29.4%
90.3%
0.67

Pamodzi Gold
ZAR 6.00
-69.6%
9.1%
0.07

Oceanagold
AUD 1.09
-73.7%
6.9%
0.16

DRDGold
ZAR 5.30
-48.3%
51.4%
0.25

Central African
GBP 0.25
-57.6%
8.6%
0.08

Resolute
AUD 2.00
-21.6%
72.9%
0.53

Integra Mining
AUD 0.47
-33.8%
248.1%
0.17

Royal Gold
USD 29.80
-15.9%
28.2%
1.01

Chenzhou
CNY 20.06
-75.2%
60.5%
1.12

Red Back
CAD 8.27
-9.7%
83.8%
1.60

Kazakh Gold
USD 20.62
-30.8%
14.2%
1.07

Tier III averages/total

-38.6%
52.7%
15.27

Weighted averages

-41.9%
47.8%








DEVELOPERS
Stock
From
From
Value


price
high*
low*
USD bn

Anatolia
CAD 3.06
-56.2%
2.0%
0.26

Andean
CAD 1.70
-24.1%
151.9%
0.63

Norton Gold
AUD 0.25
-63.0%
42.9%
0.08

European Gold
CAD 4.43
-38.5%
5.0%
0.82

Banro
CAD 8.04
-38.2%
3.7%
0.34

Greystar
CAD 4.53
-46.4%
10.2%
0.21

Medusa
AUD 1.15
-27.4%
22.3%
0.16

Osisko
CAD 3.95
-45.4%
6.2%
0.65

Central Rand
ZAR 13.50
-34.3%
4.7%
0.41

Tamaya
AUD 0.10
-73.0%
4.3%
0.11

Gabriel
CAD 2.50
-49.5%
96.9%
0.66

Mintails
AUD 0.41
-57.4%
3.8%
0.26

Moto Goldmines
CAD 3.64
-40.2%
58.3%
0.33

Detour Gold
CAD 20.70
-6.0%
305.1%
0.95

Centamin
CAD 1.17
-26.9%
34.5%
1.06

Seabridge
CAD 20.60
-47.2%
11.4%
0.79

Gold Reserve
CAD 1.85
-71.9%
18.6%
0.11

Aurelian
CAD 4.60
-55.0%
50.8%
0.64

Herald Resources
AUD 2.98
-0.3%
195.0%
0.55

St Barbara
AUD 0.56
-42.9%
51.4%
0.52

Jinshan
CAD 2.58
-19.9%
77.9%
0.43

Developer averages/total

-41.1%
55.1%
9.97

Weighted averages

-39.9%
44.2%








Overall averages/total

-36.1%
51.5%
304.03

Overall weighted averages

-26.5%
48.8%


* 12-month





Source: market data; tables compiled by Barry Sergeant

[yikyak] 13/6/2008 16:05

Single day DECLINES:

New York Stock Exchange: Worst Single-Day Declines
(Dow Jones Industrial Average, percentage change)

Percentage
Date Decline
__________________________________________
October 19, 1987 -22.6%
October 28, 1929 -12.8%
October 29, 1929 -11.7%
November 6, 1929 -9.9%
August 12, 1932 -8.4%
October 26, 1987 -8.0%
July 21, 1933 -7.84%
October 18, 1937 -7.75%
October 27, 1997 -7.16%
October 5, 1932 -7.15%
September 24, 1931 -7.07%


As can be seen in the table above, nine of the eleven largest one day percentage declines in the DJIA occurred in October or just before and after that black month.

The 1973/74 Bear Market suffered no one day crashes; instead it was a slow painful grind down of 50%: