Genel Energy Share Discussion Threads

[panagos] 17/11/2017 09:58

cyan,

I guess what they are trying to say is that when the PSC agreement for the two gas fields expire come February they will be worthless, thus every day passing GENL's negotiating power decreases.

[cyan] 17/11/2017 09:50

"Whilst the Gas is worth a fortune I don't think we will see much.."

The supply agreements have been signed. GENL will be the gas field operator (own 100%). They are to be paid $1.20 per thousand cubic feet from the bores to the processing plants.
Predicted volumes equate to in excess £400 million STERLING per annum gross to GENL.
I don't think those numbers are insignificant.

[pogue] 17/11/2017 09:48

Hawkey
I think the solution for Genel is sell up and get out while they can. Take what they can get by selling to Rosnef.

[pogue] 17/11/2017 09:38

Panagos
I am very negative but I tend to be I dont buy speculative shares on a whim. Once you know the downside you can compare it to the upside. Currently I still see a lot of downside and a diminishing upside however I am no expert on the area, I don't think anyone else here is, so we can only speculate and read what we can from those with more knowledge than us to this end from the article posted by Rangor

hxxps://www.iraqincontext.com/single-post/2017/11/03/Rosneft-in-the-Kurdish-Region-Moscows-Balancing-Act

'The deals provide Rosneft, and by extension Russia, effective control of the KRG’s Oil & Gas infrastructure, and a controlling stake in the region’s finances in more ways than one.
 
Within the oil space it has established this in three ways. The first was by providing USD 1.5bn in financing via forward oil sales payable over 3-5 years. This would be payable in kind from the KRG’s exports,until recently at about 550,000-600,000 barrels per day (bbl/d). However, the loss of the Kirkuk fields takes away about 430,000 bbl/d of production or eventually about half of the KRG’s exports. This leaves the KRG with a tiny revenue stream after payments to International Oil Companies (IOC)’s, from which to make payments on forward oil sales of up USD 3.5 bn including Rosneft’s USD 1.5bn. A complicating factor is the repayment of other KRG debt, estimated at over USD 21bn by end of 2017, which will have to be factored into debt payment sustainability.'

The article spells out the problem no income large debts and dependency on Russian good will for survival. Not a good place to be.

[hawkey2] 17/11/2017 09:35

GAS VERY TRICKY...

This is a very tricky situation the KRG have got themselves in.

Russia are now it would seem are the KRG preferred partner in everything especially as they have lent billions of dollars and no doubt pull most strings.

Turkey however are their natural partners who take KRG oil and want their Gas to cut out the Russians.

The fields in a disputed area no doubt bring Bagdad into the equation.

Whilst the Gas is worth a fortune I don't think we will see much from them after we get screwed by our partner. We are very much a minority partner in any situation. I think the capex from memory is over 2 Billion dollars.

So for me, yes worth some money to us at a complete guess 30-50p per share but won't make us rich.

What do you think ??

Hawkey

[cyan] 17/11/2017 09:18

I am very confident that the gas assets will be developed, but that's just my opinion.

We already have the milestone agreement on how much GENL will get per 1,000 cubic feet supplied for processing; $1.20.

The agreed production volumes will gross,to GENL, over £400 million PA in the plateau phase of production.

Brent $61.56

[nicksig] 17/11/2017 09:11

Might be cheaper for Rosneft just to make an offer for GENL

[panagos] 17/11/2017 09:02

KRG got $1,200,000,000 from rosneft two day ago........ KRG will not stop payments.

What if Kim Yong Un nukes KRG?

[panagos] 17/11/2017 09:00

CSBS(TM) activated.

[carla1] 17/11/2017 08:17

Good morning fellow investors ...

Pogue dreadful thought behave i am trying to do a smash and grab :-)

[pogue] 17/11/2017 08:08

Just thinking what happens if no partner can be found for the gas? What I am saying here is Rosnef scares off everyone else and lets Genel go under, assuming KRG stop oil payments in the near future?

[losses] 17/11/2017 07:45

KRG-Rosneft Agreement Still Valid: Spokesperson Basnews English 16/11/2017 - 23:24 KurdistanERBIL - The agreement between Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and Russian giant oil company, Rosneft, is still valid even though Erbil's oil revenues face a huge slash, a spokesperson said."Rosneft has an agreement with the Kurdistan Region to invest $3 billion in the energy sector ," KRG's Spokesperson Safeen Dizayi told BasNews on Thursday.The official pointed out that half of the oilfields previously under the control of the KRG are now seized by Baghdad, which has decreased Erbil's oil revenues by 50%.Concerning Baghdad's attempt to downsize KRG's share from the federal budget, Dizayi said that such a small share will fall far short of the expenses on public servants' wages."They [the Iraqi government] have allocated 340 billion Dinar monthly, which cannot meet the expenses of even one province in the Kurdistan Region."Dizayi further explained that 850 billion Dinar is needed to cover public servants' wages only.

[pogue] 17/11/2017 07:40

Good find Rangor.
I agree regards the payment of oil but the article suggests that the obvious partner for Genel for the gas is Rosenef, in fact probably the only one as anyone else will get squeezed by the Russians for trying to muscle in. It would appear they will get a deal the problem obviously is how good a deal. The Russians have effectively bought Kurdistan it would appear and have a strong influence on policy there so how much generosity they will show Genel now they have the upper hand is questionable. Food for thought.

[rangor] 17/11/2017 07:16

Interesting article on genel's gas development and Russian interest.
courtesy of Boyobash on III.
"
Here's a must read by Ahmed-Tabaqchali from 'Iraq In Context' for anyone who still believes that Genel will continue to be paid for current oil production and also make something of its gas business in the KRI:


"

[cyan] 16/11/2017 16:20

Brent is having a late recovery today; back over $62; Brent $62.04

[carla1] 16/11/2017 15:56

SmaSH AND GRAB IN FULL FLOW.

May i declare a BLUEY TOM

[panagos] 16/11/2017 15:53

LOL!

Kris Carla is paid by each penny drop.

At £1 she can make a Go Large Big Mac meal!!!

[panagos] 16/11/2017 15:51

genl mCAP £300,000,000 at this price.

how much income we will have for 2017?

Is forward PE ratio in single digits?

Are we one of the most undervalued companies in the LSE?

[kris akabusi] 16/11/2017 15:49

C'mon Carla, push harder!

Kris wants his one pound fish

[carla1] 16/11/2017 15:20

Good Afternoon fellow INVESTORS... rude not to take a few for a smash and grab x

[carla1] 16/11/2017 14:38

Oh dear... Remenber £1 is about to break ...Illegal contracts... Zero investment !!

[gregpeck7] 16/11/2017 13:46

Took a few more on the dip