Genel Energy Share Discussion Threads

[hawkey2] 14/10/2018 08:30

Hi Cyan,

Absolutely correct.

Also I remember the initial plan we for us to keep 10% of the upstream project but that has probably changed.

The amounts you quote are only correct if we own that total amount of the gas which I don't think we will do. In fact I don't think Genel will ever go near Gas production themselves. I think they will farm-in and sit back and collect the dollars from somebody else work.

WTFDIK

Hawkey

[cyan] 13/10/2018 23:32

Our share of the gas development; wellhead to processing is set out with agreed numbers; the $1.20 per 1,000 cubic feet which will yield the £400 m per annum.

The expensive bit is the processing plants where there will be partners investing a lot of money. It will be worth it to them , value enhancing; at least $2 per 1,000 cubic feet.

Now, we MIGHT want a piece of that action too however; we already know how cheap the drilling is, about as cheap as it gets.

Our part might be minor in terms of capital investment (if we do not take a share of the processing), BUT , we still get half a billion dollars per annum in revenue.

Its blooming gigantic

[hawkey2] 13/10/2018 19:07

Hi Cyan what I meant is WE will play a small part, not that its not a huge asset. I just see this being completely run by someone else a bit like Tawke where we just sit back and watch the cash roll in.

Or who knows Rosneft might make us an offer we can't refuse for the whole gas set up.

Have a good weekend Amigo.

Hawkey

[d1nga] 13/10/2018 18:07

I agree cyan , Rosneft are not laying that pipe on a whim

[cyan] 13/10/2018 17:42

"My view is that the gas will only play a small part in our future. We are not gas providers and never will be."

Totally disagree.

Two billion barrels oil equivalent . 'small' is a word i would not use. Crunch the numbers and you will see how valuable our fields are. We will not develop alone, imo.

[hawkey2] 13/10/2018 15:07

Sidi Moussa Block......

I wonder if there are any legs in this old beast........

Genel purchase Sidi Moussa in 2012 with a 50$ million drill commitment.

hxxp://www.oilreviewmiddleeast.com/exploration-production/genel-energy-to-farm-in-on-sidi-moussa-offshore-block

So it was drilled in 2014 by Genel.

hxxps://www.offshoreenergytoday.com/genel-spins-drill-bit-at-sm-1-offshore-morocco/

hxxps://www.offshoreenergytoday.com/genel-finds-oil-in-sidi-moussa-block-off-morocco/

So we found some oil but couldn't bring it to surface. However we did prove up a working hydrocarbon system, i.e. we know its there somewhere.

"In November 2014, the SM-1 well on the Sidi Moussa permit (Genel 60% working interest and operator) was plugged and abandoned after being drilled to a total depth of 2,825 metres. The well encountered oil in fractured and brecciated cavernous Upper Jurassic carbonates. In the course of well control operations, 26 degree API oil was recovered to surface. A subsequent testing programme over the same interval failed to produce oil at sustainable rates."

We have completed most of the 3D and will finish soon.

"On the Sidi Moussa block offshore Morocco (Genel 75% working interest, operator), over 2,000 km2 of 3D seismic has now been acquired, c.60% of the total. Acquisition is set to complete in November, with data processing to follow in 2019"

So we now have a drill or drop option until 2020. Bloody expensive mistake if we just dump it. ???

However our board is not the swashbuckling band that we previously had so another farm-in or sell is very likely.

Any thoughts ??

Hawkey

[hawkey2] 13/10/2018 15:06

What next for us ??


So we all know that we are on a slower journey than we thought but what do we think the Genel board will get up to next.

My view is that the gas will only play a small part in our future. We are not gas providers and never will be.

Pesh, Tawke and Taq Taq are taking care of themselves which only leave us with Bina Bawi once we get the nod which could be any day now. The KRG won't want proven oil sitting in the ground when its 80$ a barrel to sell.

Maybe, could be sometime very late next year someone might drill Somaliland but it certainly won't be us. We will be the free carried or small partner.

So for me we have a board who can spend a lot of time looking at opportunities that come their way.

What a position to be in with numerous companies deep in debt. We can spend say 200$ million and get one hell of a bargain.

Any thoughts ???

Hawkey

[cyan] 12/10/2018 17:03

I see Malcy commenting on POO and unusually , for him, mentioning the recent gas price; $3.28.

GENL have signed a gas sales agreement where they supply for processing at $1.20 .
(per thousand cubic feet prices)

I do not know what gas will retail for in turkey , but, on the face of it, there's a lot of money to be made by midstream processor suppliers; $2.08 at least.

The numbers are compelling and , imo, its just the politics holding up progress bringing on board partners.

[losses] 12/10/2018 16:29

Dow heading for 24000 before Santa rally

[nicebut] 12/10/2018 16:11

There certainly is a seller around IMO- My money is on Bilgin- Anyway there certainly isn`t buying pressure outweighing the sells which is what we need...- otherwise GENL wouldn`t be down from c250 after last 2 RNSs....Just have to hang in there and wait for ii to load up- which they surely will at some point......I too wonder why there are no analyst updates...perhaps they havn`t started buying yet/finished buying!! :)

[cyan] 12/10/2018 15:10

I would hope for a better deal/partnership Sparky333.

We will have two years ramping up the gas production to a ten year plateau phase where gross revenues from the well head will be circa £400m Per annum.

Its the midstream processing that interests ; where the gas is cleaned up and value enhanced. Our slice of the action from ground to processing is pretty straightforward imo.

Will we enhance revenues by having a slice of that action?

[nicksig] 12/10/2018 15:03

sparky - I agree that in terms of fundamentals it makes no sense to short but the stock is quite illiquid and the price can be pushed around without too much difficulty. On days where volume is low even 50k dripped onto the order book could take the price down significantly. I think there is also a little disappointment that a). there was no divi; b). that gas progress is slow (understandably). I still see good value here and will hold for the long term. I am surprised though that there hasn't been more updated broker coverage

[sparky333] 12/10/2018 14:52

Would love an out of hours RNS on the gas Say 80% of rights sold to Xxx for £750m with free carry of 20% to 30% retained.Ps I picked the numbers out of thin air Btw.

[sparky333] 12/10/2018 14:49

70p fall in an environment of high POO and company news and outlook never so bullish seems a weird environment to short a stock.GKP would be a better target as they are about to spend $250m to ramp up falling production upto 55kWe have spent no where near that and I expect at 55k production before GKP.They have been talking about 55k for years at GKP and still production is fallling yet higher value than Genel.Doesn't make sense.

[hawkey2] 12/10/2018 14:30

Same Iraqi oil minister....


hxxp://www.rudaw.net/english/business/12102018

[nicksig] 12/10/2018 14:18

I'm not sure there is a distressed seller. By the looks of the changes in institutional holdings this is a stock that seems to be traded actively in size. I expect some large shorts were taken out after the two RNSs that coincided with the general market weakness plus the knowledge that there would be no more news soon. I could be wrong but there have been no holdings announcement to suggest anything different

[sparky333] 12/10/2018 13:46

The positive is that with the recent heavy volume the seller gets to unload faster.

[sparky333] 12/10/2018 13:44

Pretty obvious now we have a distressed seller who has been feeding the market.No way after the recent news you would sell sand again we are getting the BOTs testing liquidityMy entire monitor list is blue and Genel is struggling.Huge opportunity as once the seller finishes nothing holding us back.

[cyan] 12/10/2018 13:43

Good afternoon Hawkey2

The gas assets are HUGE. Two Billion barrels oil equivalent. For GENL the income will be huge; £400m pa; doubling the business.
Hardly a small part of our portfollio.

We have the terms ; $1.20 per 1,000 cubic ft supplied for processing.

My understanding would be any partner would provide the processing faciliies and add value and the flow via Rosneft's pipeline to retail in Turkey.

The only question for me is, what, if any interest, will GENL want in the midstream processing.

The gas is the pot of gold waiting for us and should not be marginalised.


Brent $81.30

[hawkey2] 12/10/2018 13:13

GAS....Not for me......

With so much going on I wouldn't be surprised for us to down dial the gas and it be a much smaller part of our portfolio.

Why would we directly get involved when its not our field of expertise when someone like Rosneft might easily take the reigns and we just count the cash.

We have tonnes going on, more oil fields which we will run due to start soon and Somaliland if we find a partner possibly in 2019. That without any kind of corporate tie up.

Seems to make much more sense to me.

Any thoughts ?

[carla1] 12/10/2018 12:49

Pana normal service resumes Follow other oilers up..Blue finish..Work hard for me x

[hawkey2] 12/10/2018 12:23

Decent volume so far today which usually helps us.

Have to admit if someone said DNO and Genel would provide these updated and we would move from Fridays £2.36 to struggling with £2.30 I would have thought them mad.

Also no brokers updates which is strange as well. Where are they.

Drill baby drill..........

Hawke