Gem Diamonds Share Discussion Threads

[bad gateway] 29/8/2024 07:13:37

They found 8 large diamonds but only sold 6 in the period for the no's. so 2 already in stock for selling for the full yr no's?

[bad gateway] 29/8/2024 07:12:17

Not bad results with the diamond market still under pressure imho. How well will they do if it recovers at all?

[boonkoh] 28/8/2024 10:10:39

Could this afternoon, ahead of the results tomorrow.... Traders piling in... Very illiquid.

[imnotspartacus] 28/8/2024 09:27:15

Could this be about to breakout?

[boonkoh] 28/8/2024 07:27:28

The big diamonds keep on coming! 10 so far, extrapolating out that's 15 for 2024.2023 did 5 in total.Each one could sell for up to $5m each so do the maths, along with the much lower operating costs this year vs last year, and the profits could be staggering...

[boonkoh] 22/8/2024 13:29:13

BBC News - World's second-largest diamond found in Botswanahttps://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1w78rwlqvxoIf only GEMD can find a 2500 carat stone....

[boonkoh] 13/8/2024 13:59:08

Last year H1 results came in end of Aug.Really simple to calculate your own H1 numbers. Company fave guidance on operating costs. Take lower end, due to no load shedding.Then just take H2 costs for Corporate Costs, and 10% royalty rate of revenues to Lesotho, and another 1% of rev for sales costs.Then the net finance cost from H2.And voila. Hard to see anything less than $15m PBT for H1. Wipes out a big chunk of debt, so we should also see the facilities renewed with the H1 results.

[mindthestash] 13/8/2024 13:19:34

Q2 revenue 34m US
Q1 revenue 43m Us incl 294ct
Total. 77m

Notwithstanding my error on the dale of the 295ct stone still short of my estimate.
AS DCR notes the efficiencies are having minor impact but q2 revenue dissapoints.

Any idea when we'll see full H2 numbers incl capex etc?

[imnotspartacus] 13/8/2024 11:38:19

If they start a buyback scheme I’ll buy some more.

[boonkoh] 13/8/2024 10:31:20

I've done the maths and think H1 was a 6.5p EPS for just the half year. Which is nuts given the current 13p share price And don't forget two large stones not sold in HY, cost recognised in H1, all profit in H2.Even a more pessimistic calculation for H2, I get 3.4p EPS for H2. Annualised, 6.8p, and at 3x PE minimum that's a 20p share price, minimum, it should trade, even in bear case scenario.

[dcroston] 13/8/2024 10:23:31

Not really sure what everyone was expecting under the circumstances a very good performance for the 6 months.

Processing less ore for more diamonds since changes to processing plant leading to more large stones being found.

No grid interuptions (loadshedding) so costly diesel generators not required.

Reduction in operational cost since purchase of mining fleet/personnel.

Overall, a very good performance in an extremely difficult market.

[davethehorse] 13/8/2024 09:16:44

Still falling on the diamond indexhttps://www.paulzimnisky.com/roughdiamondindex

[davethehorse] 13/8/2024 08:32:31

Nothing special in the update, the half year results will tell you more

[boonkoh] 13/8/2024 08:32:22

Disappointing.

[mindthestash] 12/8/2024 20:24:19

Many thanks DCR.
that explains why I've always lost money here.

I teresting day tomoerow

[dcroston] 12/8/2024 19:23:32

MTT,

I think you might be disappointed to hear that 295Cts was sold and accounted for in Q1.

It's stated in the headlines in Q1 and mentioned towards the end of the webcast.

[davethehorse] 12/8/2024 16:13:45

Me neither but nice analysis, happy to watch on the sidelines until (if) the diamond prices in general start to improve....way too much guesswork here for me....

[mindthestash] 11/8/2024 11:08:55

Dcroston
thanks for above

Are you saying $10m US for stones coming under 100cts? 80 -99cts
Also
Trawling the internet it looks like about £10m UK for decent shape clarity rough stones 100-150cts -and £15m ++ UK for exceptional

Does that sound about right

DaveTH - im thinking of chasing my losses.

[caiman47] 11/8/2024 10:57:11

Letseng will never produce a red diamond. The only mine that produced red diamonds was Argyle in Australia - recently closed.

[dcroston] 08/8/2024 13:36:09

10+ is a reasonable guess for large stones under 100 cts.

Leave it to others to do some basic maths.

Roll on H2 results and the next 6 months.

[mindthestash] 08/8/2024 13:29:16

Dear all
My assumption is we can expect similar smaller stone to q1?

Can anyone have a guess at revenue generated ie sold by large stones within q2 so we can take punt on revenue gross for H2?

Point 2
There is an upside to this base case above as an earlier poster suggested the possibility of more sub100 carat diamonds not reported on RNS.

Grateful for any help on this.

[dcroston] 07/8/2024 14:07:21

Does any other diamond mining company find as many big stones as Gem Diamonds?

One week to go until an update, should be interesting I think.

GEMD certainly in a much better position than if they hadn't found all those large stones that according to some on here they wouldn't be able to do.

Not a single outage from Escrom either.

Question is, when will the share price reflect the results?

Yes, I know the diamond market isn't in the best shape but GEMD are doing rather well and the share price has yet to reflect this.

Oh, well....roll on next week for the update.

One more big stone would be very nice too before results, perhaps a fancy red or blue one....you never know.