Geiger Counter Share Discussion Threads

[mr roper] 10/1/2017 11:29

Added again this morning

[masurenguy] 10/1/2017 11:00

Yesterdays NAV of 26.30p is up by 22% over the past 4 weeks.

[masurenguy] 10/1/2017 01:21

Main institutional shareholders currently hold 40.7% of the shares.

Miton Asset Management Ltd. 8.67m: 11.47%
City of London Investment Management Co. 8.51m: 11.26%
BTG Pactual Chile SA Administradora General de Fondos. 5.30m: 7.02%
Ruffer LLP. 4.08m: 5.40%
Hargreave Hale Ltd. 3.29m: 4.35%
Pension Reserves Investment Management Board. 912.92k: 1.21%

Discount to NAV at yesterdays close was 9.7%.

[shavian] 09/1/2017 23:49

Nexey up another 5.2% and PTU up 3.7% across the pond, BKY up 3.8 here. Good NAV day coming up.

[tromso1] 09/1/2017 10:52

Also the possibility of momentum traders picking up on the move with the price breaking out to a new 12 month high.

[masurenguy] 09/1/2017 10:47

I'm sure that's what driving the current shareprice momentum and clearly GCL is beginning to appear on more investors radar screens since Christmas.

[tromso1] 09/1/2017 10:43

People maybe noticing the pick up in the uranium price and realising there aren't that many ways to play it in the UK.

[masurenguy] 09/1/2017 10:39

Getting some volume trading since the new year. Average daily volume last week was 750,000 compared with less than 50,000 before Christmas. The shareprice is also up by 20% over the past 3 weeks. Over the same period NAV is up by 11% and the discount to NAV has declined from 17% to 4%.

[masurenguy] 08/1/2017 14:13

Odds Of Uranium Spot Price Turnaround In 2017
Dec. 20, 2016

Uranium prices have been declining for a full decade now. It essentially means that the mining investment boom is also likely to end soon, giving rise to eventual production decline. By some estimates, mined production decline is likely to occur before the end of the decade, meaning that forward looking markets may lead price decline ending in 2017.

Once production decline sets in, it will not be reversed for many years, because of the long lead times of new mining projects. The growing gap between growing demand and declining mined supplies is likely to lead to a longer term uranium bull market. The long lead time in uranium mining projects from planning stage to full production ramp-up, is perhaps one of the biggest impediments to achieving a balanced and stabilized uranium spot price. The long lead time involved in building nuclear power plants is not helpful either. It can take a decade or longer from the point where a deal is inked to build a new power plant, to the point where it becomes fully operational. Then there are the uranium fuel stockpiling strategies that power plants engage in as a way to make sure that there are disruption issues. Nuclear power plants can often operate for years without having to buy more fuel. At the same time, the fuel plays a relatively small role in nuclear power production costs, with the initial capital investment involved in building the plant being the main factor involved in the total cost of nuclear energy, which means that high uranium prices will not lead to demand destruction as is the case with most other commodities. Then there is also the fact that nuclear fuel deals often involve long term contracts between miners and utilities, which makes the remaining spot price market relatively thinly traded and therefore very likely to fluctuate a great deal.

It can be argued that for 2017 to be the year that the current trend of declining prices is going to be stemmed and reversed, a very important thing needs to happen, namely we would have to see a decline in mined production. It is not entirely clear that this will happen in 2017, but there are some reasons to think that a significant and sustained period of mined uranium supply decline is set to happen before the end of the decade. One of the reasons behind this is the fact that at current prices most mines are not profitable and the only thing keeping some of them from being closed down is the long term contract deals that were signed during a higher price environment period. Apparently, many of those contracts are set to expire in the next two years and in the absence of new contracts being signed at significantly higher prices compared with the current spot price, many mines will be closed down. If this happens, we will likely have another major uranium price boom starting before the end of the decade, because by most estimates, price expectations in the $50/pound range or higher are needed for new mining projects to happen.

It is impossible to predict whether the spot price turnaround will happen in 2017 or later. We certainly have reasons to believe that it could happen, given that we are seeing increasing signs of a supply/demand situation developing where there will be a growing gap in coming years.

[tromso1] 08/1/2017 10:54

"INN: What do you expect for the uranium market in 2017?

TOC: For uranium, you can sense the bottom is here. No producers can make money at current spot uranium price and demand will continue to increase due to new reactor builds and more re-starts expected in Japan. Existing and future producers are starting to contract again, at above $40 per pound prices, which is well above both the published spot, and term uranium prices

CP: Leading indicators are pointing to a resurgent bull market. The downturn we have been through has seen little invested in new supply and less in exploration than should have been and this coupled with an improving global outlook for business growth suggests to me that we may be about to enter a bull market that may put the last one in the shade."

[masurenguy] 08/1/2017 09:13

Cheers Shavian - it is also worth noting the following points.

1. The company has the vast majority of its investments in assets located in politically stable countries.
Canada..........70.6%
Australia........15.1%
USA.............. 4.2%
Spain............ 3.2%
Sub Total......93.1%

2. 95.2% of the company's investments are in companies quoted on a recognised stock exchange.

3. The company is authorised to buy back its own shares for cancellation at a price not exceeding a premium of 5% of the closing mid-price on the date that any such buyback may be approved.

4. The company has no employees. No pension contributions are payable for the benefit of the directors.

5. The company has 75,584, 492 shares in issue. All of these shares were issued between July 2006 and July 2007. No further shares have been issued since then. The consolidated average price when all those shares were issued was 72.8p. The mid-point shareprice at Fridays close was 23.125p which represents 31.5% of the average initial issue price.

[shavian] 08/1/2017 08:28

It's worth noting that in the last uranium price spike in 2011, GCL briefly enjoyed a NAV of around 200p, with the share price not far behind. Lots of scope for improvement for the patient investor here

[shavian] 08/1/2017 08:24

Stupendous day on Friday. Canadians on a roll for uranium at last, and in Europe BKY is commencing construction of an actual mine ( rather than a 'jam tomorrow' project).



GCL has a rather modest stake in BKY, so I bought some myself last week.

[masurenguy] 06/1/2017 17:12

Last U308 spot price (delayed 72 hours) was $20.25 on January 2nd, up 8% over the prior 2 weeks.

Uranium Prices Steady in December, Market Participants Look to Better 2017
December 21, 2016

Uranium prices have seen a modest increase over December, adding $0.50, but the commodity is closing the year with a significant loss. Uranium is approaching year-end at $18.75 per lb., compared to the beginning of 2016 when it was trading around $35.00 per lb. This steep annual loss came despite some optimism heading into 2016. Analysts have said that the bullish case for uranium remains intact, it is just taking longer than expected for the commodity to see its market demand fundamentals improve.

The major dark cloud hanging over the market has been the Fukushima disaster, which originally put nuclear development plans around the world on hiatus. It has taken longer than expected for Japan to restart its nuclear plants, but a move in the right direction, late last week Russian state-controlled nuclear corporation Rosatom signed a memorandum of cooperation for the use of nuclear energy with two Japanese ministries. Cooperation will include post-accident recovery at the Fukushima plant. The cooperation will also include exchanging resources and ideas to promote nuclear technological advances. This latest agreement follows a 2009 agreement inked between the two countries for joint-cooperation on uranium exploration and mining, the design, construction and operation of light water reactors, radioactive waste processing and management, nuclear safety, and other technological advances.

2016 was an interesting year for the energy sector as a whole, and a big development was that it became apparent how important nuclear energy is to the sector. A rapid cutback in coal mining in China as the country pushed forward with its plans to reduce emissions sent coal prices on a steep ascent with supplies dropping, but demand failing to see an equivalent descent. This development made it apparent just how important it is for countries to diversify their energy supply as they reduce their coal use. Nuclear power is widely seen as one of the most promising alternative sources of energy to coal. Over the long-term, this should support the market, but in the near term nuclear developments are taking longer than expected following the Fukushima disaster.

[tromso1] 06/1/2017 16:29

Strong finish by the looks of it.

[anthony16731] 06/1/2017 11:26

Multi year breakout & long term 200MA gone too. Folk are going mad for Uranium stocks on TSX which is quite handy for GCL.Share price here hit 130p when U308 was last at $50 so this is a great play for anybody interested in tracking Uranium prices and has a bullish view of those.Floor needs to be in sometime.

[masurenguy] 06/1/2017 09:20

Moving up on quite small trading volumes.

[quepassa] 06/1/2017 09:14

I personally believe that uranium has now truly bottomed.

It seems to me after so many years in the doldrums for uranium that the pluses for the upside case now certainly outweigh the minuses.

Some of the price forecasts from a whole array of analysts are very buoyant.

A well-balanced article on Bloomberg today.




ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[masurenguy] 05/1/2017 17:43

NAV up by a further 2.7% since yesterday. The NAV over the past 4 weeks has increased by 26.6% where as the shareprice has only increased by 11.9% over the same period. The shareprice at todays close represented almost a 20% discount to NAV.

[dogberry202000] 05/1/2017 01:26

I'm just being greedy,Shavian. As you will have noticed there's been some decent appreciation in the North American miners today. Augers well for GCL tomorrow and for the next several weeks. UUUU looks to have broken out.

[shavian] 04/1/2017 19:05

What? Doggers you should have loaded up when you had the chance!

[sideshowbull] 04/1/2017 18:43

Been away, U308 spot over $20 is really positive, Uranium seems a no brainer for the future(been saying that since 2006 so WTFDIK)!

I am in a few apart from GCL -namely URA and BKY.

Think it is our time now. Anyone want to open my eyes to a few In Situ recovery play minnows that I have not spotted only interested in ISR at the moment.

sideshow

[masurenguy] 04/1/2017 15:35

Quite a bit of volume today with the NAV up by a hefty 4.8% since yesterday.