Gear4music (holdings) Share Discussion Threads

[masurenguy] 27/4/2022 09:36

Still on the slide - watching and waiting for evidence of a reversal with a view to reinvest once again.

[rp19] 26/4/2022 19:47

Don't know the rules concerning closed periods, but the most recent transaction was the CEO selling 1.65m shares at £7.30 per share for a total upward of £12m. Nice timing. He still retains 4.7m shares. The vastly reduced forward looking broker estimates are not inspiring and the extent of the downgrades is significant and surprised me. The trend to purchasing musical equipment online I think will strengthen, so G4M should be well positioned but there always tends to be a disappointment around the corner (e.g. Jan '2019 capacity constraints and margin pressures).

FY '23 EPS estimates are less than this year's FY '22 estimates and it is supposed to be a growth company (and there has been a recent acquisition which should enhance earnings). The recent update identifies weaker consumer demand in Feb/Mar. Are the estimates prudent and see this weaker demand continuing for some time? If so then perhaps there is scope for out performance but it is firmly in the 'I don't know' category for me at the minute.

[value viper] 26/4/2022 17:03

Guess that's fair comment River.I wonder though if this is becoming increasingly vulnerable......Instis must be most peeved especially Liontrust (was it) who paid over 700p for more. Suspect this in 'nibbling territory" if may be a patience job.Who knows where bottom will be.Assume directors can't invest until after June results ?

[riverman77] 26/4/2022 16:34

Unfortunately looks like it will be going below 200p before too long. Brokers are now forecasting around 15p EPS over the next couple of years. Put that on a say 12x multiple would give you 180p - I can certainly see it staying around that level until there is an improvement in consumer sentiment. Could be a tremendous recovery stock in time, but definitely not now.

[value viper] 26/4/2022 16:23

Fairly large print there (13,216 shares) maybe seller clear .....

[value viper] 26/4/2022 15:24

Keeps slipping - hhmmGuessing directors can't buy ahead of the results in June ?

[masurenguy] 22/4/2022 13:51

Current market cap is circa 4 x EBITDA and 35% of annual sales. Looks like we are approaching bargain territory. Watching and waiting for what appears to be closer to a real bottom.

[ali47fish] 22/4/2022 09:46

what 's the idea of falling 9pc after yesterday's tumble?

[laughton] 22/4/2022 09:39

Depends on when you bought in.

[ali47fish] 22/4/2022 09:08

saracen is that good for investors or not?

[saracen3] 22/4/2022 08:43

Must be very tempting for Management to take the company private.

[dixi] 21/4/2022 20:18

Generally when I Google for music gear this lot are always the most expensive. Andertons, GAK, PMT, GuitarGuitar, Hotrox etc always come in much better value. So I for one never buy from Gear4Music. Just my observation.

[callumross] 21/4/2022 19:44

Looking on the website av.com, as someone who has just researched home cinema for my newly acquired OLED TV, their soundbars, woofers and surround speakers are ridiculously overpriced compared with the market.

[masurenguy] 21/4/2022 08:54

Shareprice hit harder than I envisaged. Good decision in hindsight having sold out @£6.82 in mid-January after the 33% fall from the peak last year. Could look to re-enter if the price falls further.

[hastings] 21/4/2022 08:28

Singer note this morning has EPS of 15.5p for this year with 14.9p next year.

[rp19] 21/4/2022 08:26

Thanks both, some culling. Reflected by the Progressive Note in Oct '21 which had 2023 at 39.9p EPS and 2024 at 49.9p EPS.

[jolomo] 21/4/2022 08:20

Progressive have this year at 18.5p, 14.7p (2023), 20.1p (2024)

[cockerhoop] 21/4/2022 08:14

EPS reduced by 45-48% for FY23 & FY24, now 14.9p adj EPS for 23, 18.8p adj EPS for 24.

[rp19] 21/4/2022 08:01

Singer have reduced estimates for future years, does anyone have these?

[masurenguy] 21/4/2022 07:58

EBITDA slightly - circa 10% - below expectations for the year but general trend is upwards compared to pre-COVID Y/E March 2020. However European sales have been impacted by Brexit/COVID while UK sales continue to grow. This could possibly become a bid target from their major German competitor at this price, which would give them a dominant position in the UK market. We shall have to wait and see. Meanwhile a bit of a profit warning in the commentary, which might punish the shareprice at the open.

"Short term inflation-linked overhead cost pressures and weaker consumer confidence across the broader retail landscape will mean the best opportunities for stronger growth during FY23 are likely to be in H2. We are, accordingly, moderating our overall growth expectations for the new financial year, which we believe is the prudent approach in the current environment. During what may be a more challenging FY23 H1 retail environment, sales and margins will be supported with good levels of inventory across our distribution centres, continuing expansion of our European operations to drive European website conversion, and sufficient working capital to continue investing where appropriate."

[basem1] 21/4/2022 07:41

Seems like a well run business with some potential growth opportunities 3 gbp would look a decent entry point

[saracen3] 21/4/2022 07:37

Expect the competitors to be struggling even more.

[hastings] 21/4/2022 07:23

Not surprising given consumer confidence etc. Still, here for the longer term and growth prospects which remain attractive, so possibly add at levels nearer my original entry point!

[basem1] 21/4/2022 07:20

When you look at the market cap you could say that a lot of the fall is in the price already. But it wilk not stop it from tanking at the open