Gcap Media Share Discussion Threads

[john_essex] 21/4/2006 15:05

Hi everyone, I'm new to this board so here goes with my first post.

I bought these shares at various points over the last 6 months and now have a fairly large holding. Due to luck rather than skill I managed to buy at some good times and my average buy price is quite low at around 265p so with the share price now starting to rocket skywards I will soon be able to sell at a profit.

Now the big question is do I sell or hold? I had always intended to keep these long term (1-2 years)but with potential for a quick profit I might be tempted to take the money an run. If a takeover is on the way any ideas on what the offer might be? Any ideas on if GCAP would accept?

I'd be interested to hear your views....

BTW - personally I think Xfm shows a lot of promise, easily competes with radio 1 IMHO.

[yewtrees] 21/4/2006 08:26

Improve Capital Radio by changing the djs, I find Johnny Vaughan on the school run to laddy and crude. And Richard Bacon is Alan Partridge!

[selftaught] 20/4/2006 14:40

Last post from the Telegraph

[selftaught] 20/4/2006 14:39

A note on GCap Media, which owns Capital Radio and Classic FM, pops into my inbox. Sell, it says. Wilton Fry of Merrill Lynch thinks the 100 stations listened to by 16m people every day are suffering from flat advertising revenues and higher costs from digital radio.

Then, suddenly, the note is withdrawn. "Since the report was e-mailed to you it may have been recalled or deleted, or companies referenced in the report may have been placed under review or on restriction."


How exciting, I think, assuming that the Merrill corporate finance team has been signed up by a potential bidder for GCap and there is a conflict of interest with the bank's research arm. But Merrill explains, somewhat implausibly, that a link on the report accidentally became scrambled with a separate one for a company 1,000 times larger, General Electric of America, and the GCap sell note is reissued 24 hours later.

If General Radio, or Capital Electric, or whatever it is called, was placed under restriction by a major investment bank, frankly it would be a relief for shareholders.

The company was formed by an unlovely nil-premium merger between GWR and Capital two years ago and the noises emitting from the Leicester Square headquarters since have included a profits warning, a dwindling London audience share, a failed auction of non-core stations and a risky plan to cut the amount of airtime sold to advertisers.

Merrill may or may not be working with a bidder, but I don't see Ralph Bernard, the GCap chief executive, surviving for long. There are plenty of mediacrats raising vulture funds, eager to topple him. These include Tim Schoonmaker, formerly of Emap but now heading Macquarie's radio operations (with one licence in Plymouth), and Tony Ball, the former chief exec of BSkyB. I suspect GCap is not a sell, but a buy.

[selftaught] 20/4/2006 12:48

"Vague bid rumours acknowledged" teletext.

Let's hope this is correct.

[selftaught] 20/4/2006 12:14

I have scoured the internet and cannot see any reason for the jump.

I can optimistically hope it is a bid in the waiting.

[betman] 19/4/2006 14:14

Whats happening with the price, anyone seen any news ?

[randolph and mortime] 12/4/2006 11:39

Square it.

[evilwebby] 31/3/2006 15:29

Didn't know my modest short would cause GCAP to capitulate!

[ladyfarmer] 31/3/2006 09:41

How can these guys be doing so badly when Local Radio (TLR) posted an increase in revenues?

" The Local Radio Company Plc



Pre-Close Trading Statement





The Local Radio Company Plc today announces its pre-close period update ahead of
the announcement of its interim results for the six months ended 31 March 2006.



Although it has been widely reported that trading conditions in the radio
industry have been very difficult over the first six months of the Group's
financial year, I am pleased to report that The Local Radio Company has again
outperformed the market. Overall revenues have increased by 1% and
like-for-like revenues have fallen by 3%, which we believe is materially better
than the performance of the market as a whole.



First Radio Sales, our national sales house, jointly owned with Ulster Radio,
has performed very strongly with significant year on year gains.



Strategically, we are continuing to press ahead with our plans in all areas. We
are launching new stations based on our licence wins, seeking acquisitions at an
appropriate price, making further new licence applications and investing in the
training and development of our people. We believe that this approach to growth
is in the best long term interests of the business and our shareholders.



Our concert business is expected to make its first full year contribution. We
have a series of large summer events planned for the second half of the year
featuring artists such as James Blunt, Westlife and Simply Red.



Our management team has been further strengthened through the appointment of
Sally Oldham, formerly Managing Director of Capital Radio.



Looking forward, we anticipate that trading for the next six months will
continue to be challenging, with limited short-term visibility, but we will
maintain our strategy with a view to making progress in the business.



- ENDS -"


I know it's not brilliant but at least they are trying to do something about it - not like the disaster of GCAP. Is there something more sinister than just market forces at play with GCAP?

[evilwebby] 30/3/2006 15:34

Went short earlier today. Think it's gonna fall to a new low.

[Abuse team] 15/3/2006 19:26

Post removed by ADVFN

[evilwebby] 15/3/2006 19:22

Could be! But I will wait. You only have to look at the chart to see the shareprice has often rallied as much as 40%, only to slump back again to new lows. You'd think that with the markets so strong, GCAP would be carried along with them.

[betman] 15/3/2006 12:12

starting to look like that may have been a bottom, do I detect an inverse head ans shoulders as well ?

[arja] 15/3/2006 10:39

evilwebby,
i like your final comment . Could today be the day to buy or is it just a dead cat bounce??!

[evilwebby] 05/3/2006 15:32

I wouldn't try to pick the bottom, betman. We're in freefall at the moment. It may be oversold on technicals, but IMHO it's still far too high on fundamentals!

I posted back in June 2005 that there's nothing to stop this share going sub-200p, then sub 150p and possibly sub 100p, nothing has changed my opinion on that. There's some whispers about this sector being looked at by private equity, but that is about the only upside I can see, and I certainly wouldn't buy it just on that hope.

They say that the the darkest hour is the one before dawn - I think the sector WILL recover, but when is anybody's guess. The true contrarian is NOT one who buys when everyone else is selling - it's the one who buys when no-one else is even interested. :)

[betman] 03/3/2006 14:03

Looks like a low on the RSI, is THIS now the time to buy or wait for 200p next week !!!!

[rasl5] 03/3/2006 09:57

gcap at 232 new low,dose anyone else holding these or i am the only one still long from about 400

[evilwebby] 28/2/2006 11:17

This ship is sinking. Look at the 5 year chart - what a DISASTER for investors.
This turkey is still seriously overpriced. £400m market cap for a company that made £12m last year?

[crontab] 28/2/2006 11:04

Am looking at this...will start building a small position methinks....

[yewtrees] 27/2/2006 19:40

Still very quiet on this board.
What is the positive thinking on this one?

[betman] 02/2/2006 11:56

I dont know of any specific news ( until today )so assume its just downwards momentum, possibly shorters. Hopefully with good news today on Jictar numbers, we have seen the bottom and now can look for recovery to 280p at least. This should get the shares in the spotlight and people can see its good value, with always some hope of more media consolidation

[rasl5] 27/1/2006 13:40

hi
anyone know why the recent fall in gcap?

[betman] 20/1/2006 10:44

Hello, is there anyone there ??
Bit quiet on this board
Shares down to recent lows. Can we expect a good bounce from here ?
Is all the bad news on advertising revenues out now ?