Gattaca Share Discussion Threads

[thorpematt] 17/12/2021 12:27

Antanatar,

you will like this



I don't disagree with your first paragraph in principle, however as far as I can tell, the evolution of the virus to "fade" takes much longer than the initial herd immunity effect does. (esp. when you add millions of vacs. to the mix). Spanish flu took several years to fade as an example (no vaccines). HIV took decades (and that is the fastest mutator know to science). Remember the virus only "encourages" evolution to be less-deadly by the very small number of people that die. Even then it still probably infected A.N.Other. It's a slow process.

You could draw the effect over time on a graph and herd immunity would be steeper than virus weakening. In this case the herd "resistance" (by T cells) is very rapid at at 73% for S.A almost perfectly co-incides with lower hospitilisations
rate....except for in kids.

Anyway, thanks for you reply and sentiments, I apreciate it.


Spooky,
Point taken.

I am looking to trade GTC and I think the timing on shorts and longs is really the only thing that matters in my timeframe. By far the bigest factor in the bext 6 weeks that will effect sentiment is this variant. And I think there is enough misconception around for me/ us to profit from the volatility. BUT I take your point, It's annoying for people interested in longer term stuff. I will not post COVID stuff on this BB moving forward.

[antanatar] 17/12/2021 09:52

Apologies Spooky. I try to back up my thoughts on GATC's prospects with reasons as to why the current variant shouldnt affect GATC detrimentally.

[forethought] 17/12/2021 09:28

Once again, MMs are paying close to the Ask for you to part with your stock. Don't get mugged....again!

[spooky] 17/12/2021 08:56

You guys do realise this is a GATC thread?

[antanatar] 17/12/2021 08:34

Sorry Thorpe, i disagree with the first part. The evolvement of the virus is not to be more transmittable but still be as damaging. It is not to its advantage to evolve like that, the virus eventually wants to go about its merry way without external interferrance (this is why previous coronaviruses eg Spanish Flu have evolved to be no more than a common cold). According to S.A's chief medical officer the Omicron variant whilst very transmittable is mild in its effects. This is backed up by the hospitalisation and death data in S.A. This is even more significant given the relatively low vaccination rate in S.A compared to the U.K

Whilst i agree there is a time lag between the UK and S.A there currently is no massive increase in hospitalisations and deaths compared to the infections and to say there will be is pure speculation.

I again agree with you that they are predicting that this variant has the potential to burn itself out very quickly with a quick very high transmission and infection rate followed by a quick retrace. The fact that there is a big uptake of the booster jab will only help the quick retrace.

I would like to thank you though for your candid thoughts

[thorpematt] 17/12/2021 01:40

FWIW one of the initial misinterpretations I made on Omicron, was that it is "milder" than Delta. Looking at the S.A data it is not. It appears to be almost identical in its ability to create serious illness...except for in the under 18s, where it is creating 20% MORE hospitilisations.

Seroprevalence explains the diminsihed hospitalisations in the general populations...alongside the Darwinism of course. (i.e deaths of the most vulnerable, during prior waves).

To summarise, SARS-COV2 is NOT evolvoing to be weaker. The S.A herd has evolved to be stronger. Net result may be similar in the eyes of some I suppose.

The R rate for O is probably getting closer to that of chicken-pox, than it is the original C19. This is scary for any country without significant seroprevalence. Happily for UK residents this is quite high.

In terms of peak, it's FAST. 3-4 weeks I think and it will be gone as quick as it came....but it's going to be a BIG peak. Don't count on your bins getting emptied in January.


One other subtlety, also under-reprepsented in the UK press: It's the T cells that are managing to prevent significant illness not the antibodies. It is exactly this dynamic which creates high cases and low CFRs (not a weaker virus).


Anyway, here's a simple summary PDF of S.A data: -

hxxps://discovery-holdings-ltd.mynewsdesk.com/pressreleases/discovery-health-south-africas-largest-private-health-insurance-administrator-releases-at-scale-real-world-analysis-of-omicron-outbreak-based-dot-dot-dot-3150697.pdf

[space_bob] 16/12/2021 22:28

Just read this which makes the point I've made in past days - crazy high infection rates means massive 'Covid deaths' when actually the stats are will be misinterpreted. Do you trust UK media and politicians to make the distinction in the next few weeks? I'm leaning toward no.

[space_bob] 16/12/2021 21:21

Good to see it bounce back and I agree Ant. But I'm in two minds, I still think the markets will be trashed mid Jan so tempted to take chance of cutting what I still hold, but if the government came out and said new variant isn't as serious as expected (which is isn't) then this will shoot back up. Problem is the government is invested in keeping the fear factor up to drive booster vaccinations.
It's still well below where I sold some and bear in mind todays bounce takes use back to where we were 3 days ago so I think I'll wait and see for now.

[antanatar] 16/12/2021 18:23

Thanks for that update Volvo. I agree anything below 200p is good business and anything below 160p is a bargain. Fear has driven this down with no basis on GATC's fundamentals, current performance or future prospects

[volvo] 16/12/2021 17:11

Nice bounce back today.

I contacted the company yesterday by phone who said....if trading was below current expectations they would inform the market, which they have not, so you can assume trading is still with current expectations.

Very cheap indeed atm

[forethought] 16/12/2021 15:31

A few got mugged yesterday and earlier. Still chance to buy the retrace back over £2 for a good profit.

[georgeg2] 16/12/2021 15:16

Glad I grabbed a few when I did. Fortune favours the brave. Hope the rise continues. GLA

[mfhmfh] 16/12/2021 11:43

I could only buy in £500 parcels

[antanatar] 16/12/2021 11:24

Nor me Doobz

[doobz] 16/12/2021 09:29

Been trying to top up this morn, but cant get a quote currently

[sev22] 16/12/2021 08:49

Another competitor comfortably ahead of current market expectations.

[volvo] 15/12/2021 18:56

Company trading exactly as forecast......dyor

[antanatar] 15/12/2021 12:23

I agree with what you say but you can usually tell by the time and trade price whether it was a sell or a buy

[forethought] 15/12/2021 10:40

Don't go by ADVFN trade reporting Ant. All those "buys" are not necessarily buys and the "sells" are not necessarily sells. It's the mid-price that determines in which column the trade is placed.

[antanatar] 15/12/2021 10:23

Yet again though, there has been double the buys than sells this morning and we drop 7.5%.

[space_bob] 15/12/2021 10:20

On a slightly more positive note, government restrictions will be reviewed on January 5, with a sunset clause on January 25, but we all know the script by now.

[space_bob] 15/12/2021 10:18

It's 'mad Friday' in two days, which will be massive super spreader events at multiple locations in every town in the UK. One week later, pretty much the perfect incubation time, most of the country will spend a couple of days with their families.
Peak Covid will be mid January and that's when we're most likely to be asked to 'save the NHS'.
Also don't discount risk of further variants - strangely they always seem to be discovered in UK and SA. I suspect there are others out there but vast majority of countries hardly do any tests.

[doobz] 15/12/2021 10:05

Thanks Space B, given that I'm expecting the fear machine to start ramping up in Jan. Made me consider hopping out of this one for the time being. I believe its simply forward looking to the potential of lockdown