Gamma Communications Share Discussion Threads

[essentialinvestor] 15/5/2025 22:43:43

. Yes Dave.

[disc0dave46] 15/5/2025 21:47:58

Hi EI
I’m guessing you mean GBG?, which if you are I've not long put them down to research further as looks cheap for some reason.

[disc0dave46] 15/5/2025 21:45:57

Mr Scruff
Don’t think you are missing anything but clearly the market interpreted their "within range" and "cost cutting" as meaning we are that desperate not to issue a PW we are looking to cut costs so we may at least come in at the bottom end of the forecasts, but what costs are they incurring that they shouldn't be seeing in the first place?, poor management?.
Still think it was overdone, time will tell.

[p1nkfish] 15/5/2025 21:00:20

Can't see any new competitive threat having arrived in the UK in the recent past.

Might be some desperate existing competitor slashing prices causing pricing softness and Gamma responding accordingly?

Since when has Barclays been much use?

[mrscruff] 15/5/2025 20:04:32

The March statement acknowledged softness in both UK and Germany.

Now, the April update explicitly excludes Germany, even highlighting positive trading in Europe due to acquisitions.

If anything, this is an improvement - yet Gamma fell sharply.

The March RNS already warned of UK challenges. The April wording ("ongoing softness... continue") isn’t a downgrade, it’s a restatement of existing conditions.

"Prudent actions to manage costs" is standard corporate language and not a profit warning. If margins were collapsing, they’d likely have issued a formal guidance cut.

If Gamma was trading at a low multiple, a 13% drop on no material deterioration suggests market irrationality.

Either:

The market misread the RNS (seeing "softness" as new bad news when it wasn’t).

Or, liquidity dried up, and a few panicked sellers (or other entity as hinted) triggered a cascade.

Am I missing anything from the RNS. I am not an emotional investor, been doing this for 30 years and I know how to read a RNS subjectively. This has however annoyed me. This could be a great buying opportunity for new investors, assuming Germany remains strong and UK stabilises.

Edit: And if what I wrote is true then what rationale did the broker have to lower the share price?

[74tom] 15/5/2025 13:51:38

Positive to see Allianz announce a more than doubling of their position, they had RNS'd their prior holding at the end of Nov 2023.

Blackrock continue their reduction, dropping from 5.85% to 5.62% having disposed of the shares they had lent out to others. Make of that what you will...

[essentialinvestor] 15/5/2025 13:22:03

Dave, any view on GB, looks interesting to me,
unless they reduce guidance.

[mrscruff] 15/5/2025 13:18:03

Deleted - incorrect information. Thanks all. Leaving this thread to the experts in trading activity.

[disc0dave46] 15/5/2025 12:10:40

The fall does look overdone, from their eps range top to bottom is 5%, but looks like the market doesn't think their UK business will improve.
Would the FTSE listing align with the early June listings reviews?.

[brigitta31] 15/5/2025 10:09:42

Mr Scruff Gamma website has its financial calendar dates for the year posted

[74tom] 15/5/2025 09:28:13

Brokers are absolutely comical, why did Barclays cut their target price 10% when guidance was reiterated? They are utter charlatans. Either way, not surprised to see the drop back today, I expect a retest of £11 but maybe even the huge long term support zone at £10.50 which was tested no less than 8 times between July 2022 and December 2023, surviving each time. Risk v reward looks about as asymmetric as it gets at these prices IMO.

[mrscruff] 15/5/2025 08:39:56

Anymore Broker forecasts due? With global markets looking high again... we all know we just need time.

Anyway. Nice community on the GAMA thread. Thank you all including the bear. How did some of you know what RNS is due outside of the usual results? The last one caught me on the back foot. I usually have a chunk of cash on these types of RNS.... I had allocated some for KNOS results but that's gone into GAMA and I need to raise some more funds from my passive bucket.

[volsung] 15/5/2025 08:14:36

So much for entering the 250 lol

[faz] 15/5/2025 07:51:33

Barclays cuts Gamma target to 1800p - overweight. Well 1800p is up 40% from here!

[melody9999] 14/5/2025 22:43:36

The absence of any broker note today was unhelpful - unless someone can share same. Deutsche Bank maybe? I saw a DB note from 160924 suggesting a price target of 2300p when the share price was 1696p

A broker might have reduced their price target by a couple of % based on the soft trading. And I suspect the actual share price would be a lot higher now.

[74tom] 14/5/2025 16:08:20

It was setup perfectly by someone, almost certainly Blackrock. It's been in a 9 month downtrend since hitting a high of £17.50 last September. Last week shares attempted to break this downtrend at £13.70 but got rejected, they then fell below the 8DMA and were wide open to this move back to the bottom of the 9 month channel.

I always think moves like today are initiated by hedge funds holding both long and short positions, perpetuated by quant hedge funds attracted by the drop / share price downtrend & reversed over the following weeks by the same players. Retail investors can tag along but have zero chance of influencing proceedings.

I really like this as a long term hold from today's entry as it feels like win win given the cash generation + seemingly having costs on a string. Either shares re-rate back to a sensible PE in the 20+ region or they will be taken private by what is likely to be a multitude of potential suitors.

[brigitta31] 14/5/2025 15:28:58

Company says next update will be 9th September with half year results

[brigitta31] 14/5/2025 15:24:27

I think it has been nothing other than pure market manipulation by big institutions who know how to play the system to get a cheap entry prior to GAMA joining the ftse 250 and I think the share price will recover in short order (excuse the pun) once those institutions have finished buying. The execution of the German acquisitions in the last year cannot be faulted. Also a good buying opportunity for private investors. I added to my holding this morning.

[indiestu] 14/5/2025 15:00:23

Purple dog = Massive Cloud PBX seat growth opportunity in Germany. See you all at the HY trading update post end of June. Should be back in a net cash position by then.

[masurenguy] 14/5/2025 14:34:09

Bad timing for an entry yesterday but I've added @1144p to average down today. Solid balance sheet and good financial metrics will overcome this short term price reaction and further institutional buying, especially for tracker funds, is likely when they appear in the FTSE indices next month.

[cordwainer] 14/5/2025 13:40:54

Forward p/e of approx 12.5 @1138p per share as I type. As of today the market seems to be assuming no or low growth and higher risk. I expect analysts will mostly reiterate buy recommendations but with lower target prices.

[mrscruff] 14/5/2025 13:25:30

The nose dive today is purely the softness comment, softness is well known in the economy right now by all finance professionals and in previous AIM RNS's and needed to be mentioned and with no sign of improving. Looking forward we have the ex-dividend on the 29th and then followed by FTSE index's buying. STARFACE will be the exciting growth driver that will add to EPS. Germany is also in the process of transitioning to digital phone services (away from PSTN), with some regions already making the switch.

I think we'll be recovering in the hours and days ahead supported by GAMA's valuation...

[essentialinvestor] 14/5/2025 12:39:54

I've mentioned director dealings on 3 stock specific boards YTD, Gamma, WTB and TET.

Given their respective and subsequent share prices performance, those observations were imv valid.


If others don't see any value in this, that's fine. Nothing more to say here for now.

[brigitta31] 14/5/2025 12:25:59

The chairman is a non-exec

[essentialinvestor] 14/5/2025 11:52:40

Tom, I've replied to a similar point previously
and it's the lack of non exec's buying that I referenced, I made the same point about the executive directors and options.


I'm not highlighting this as an infallible metric, certainty doesn't exist in the stock market.