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[cockerhoop] 25/7/2017 21:02

Personally I'd much rather have an under promise, over deliver mantra with conservative forecasts and the chance of further upgrades.

[rfgraham] 25/7/2017 15:24

Out of interest, where do you get your Peel Hunt forecasts? Are they bundled with some online subscription?

[simso] 25/7/2017 15:12

I still think the new Peel Forecasts look very prudent, with a modest +4% growth in PBT. The word Peel use to describe trading in the new year to date is "sparkling", and the new price target of £15 looks like it could be breached imminently, rather than being a medium term aspiration.
One thing in the results which did surprise me was that "Retail", (which I take to mean the 460 stores all around the world), makes only £0.5m profit in total, compared to a loss a year earlier. It appears all the money is made in Mail Order, Independents and Licencing. It is always a slightly circular argument, as without the stores, the Mail order and Licencing might not thrive to the same degree...but nonethless it was surprising to me. They have done a lot of work on turning stores into One Man Operations, lots of Openings and Closings and Capex investment.
The business is on a roll, with real trading momentum, and I expect further upgrades as the year progresses, against what still appear very prudent Peel numbers.

[cockerhoop] 25/7/2017 14:08

Upgrades

2018 99.2p EPS, 2019 104.1 EPS

[nod] 25/7/2017 11:18

This is ERP :)

[shanklin] 25/7/2017 11:07

Thank you Nod

Presumably there will be extensive testing, and a backout plan for each phase of the implementation, to limit any unforeseen disruption to the ongoing business as the new system is progressively implemented. Provided GAW have a complete test system set up in parallel with the production system, I don't really see why there should be any problems for the ongoing business.

[nod] 25/7/2017 10:49

Shanklin, they haven't got to implementation yet ... that will be painful, disruptive, etc. They are now opting for a phased installation. This will cost more as they will need to integrate new apps with old apps, until the old apps are phased out.

[bullorbear123] 25/7/2017 09:39

Extremely impressed with GAW today!. EPS growth and dividend growth looking really good! Also amazing to announce that sales and profits for 2017/18 are already ahead of market expectations; already a seriously good year so far.

Would not be surprised to see these heading towards £20 now.

[shanklin] 25/7/2017 09:32

Nod

Good point. If anybody is in regular contact with the company directors, it would be worth finding out more about this. If the ERP system situation has been a drag on sales/profitability and will be less so going forward, then all to the good.

[nod] 25/7/2017 09:20

The only note of concern was the ERP system replacement. This was started in 2015 at an estimated project cost of 4.5 million. It was quite rightly flagged as a business Risk. This estimate was upped to 6 million last AR and is now 9 million. There goes some of our dividends.The old system has been in place 17 years so was due an upgrade. But ERP systems are notoriously expensive, disruptive, time-consuming, and under-estimated. Credit to GAW's management for achieving these stellar results despite this ERP distraction."European ERP - enterprise resource planning (core back office systems) - replacement. We have added additional resource to this complex project and from April 2017 moved to a more agile methodology for implementing the solution. The revised plan will ensure we introduce business benefits as we go along rather than only at the end of the project. Our new Global IT manager will oversee this change. Project estimated cost of GBP9 million (2016 estimate: GBP6 million)."

[nod] 25/7/2017 08:40

Stunning growth across the board: by region, by channel. While Asia is a new and small market, growth of over 50% bodes well. And mention of localised products this year."AsiaOur four new country managers in Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan and Malaysia have now been in country for approximately 18 months. They have all reported, together with our existing business in China, double-digit sales growth. We will continue to invest in Asia and I have agreed to support our local teams and customers with more localised content and additional product formats in 2017/18."

[cockerhoop] 25/7/2017 08:35

Just checked, Resolution 11 at the Agm will sort the issue out.

[trident5] 25/7/2017 08:08

Ker-ching, Ker-ching.

[bruceylegs] 25/7/2017 08:05

Note 2017 EPS was 95.1p - quite an increase on broker's already increased target of 91.8p. Great result.

[bookbroker] 25/7/2017 07:50

That is a potential warning of uncertain proportions, means they have little visibility ahead, why all the cheering, the whole story already baked in!

[argylerich] 25/7/2017 07:42

Lovely jubbly, should be looking forward to our next divi by September 😊
On another note, should anyone be going to the AGM when it comes up, would love to know what "loans to shareholders" of £1.9m is all about!

[shanklin] 25/7/2017 07:41

Given that the forecast for the 2017/18 FY was for an EPS of 82.1p, I think it would be very surprising if GAW had not, fairly early in the FY, stated they expected to beat expectations. The big positive for me is the statement that:

"Following on from the Group's good performance in 2016/17, trading has continued strongly into 2017/18 such that sales and profits for 2017/18 to date are well above the same period in the prior year."

Hopefully in due course, EPS expectations will move well above £1.00 (being very conservative).

[someuwin] 25/7/2017 07:35

Peel Hunt increases target price from £13.50 to £15.00.

[pnetol] 25/7/2017 07:25

I am not sure that I have ever been invested in a company where they announce that their profits will be ahead of expectations at the same time as the finals for the previous year. Well done GAW, keep up the good work.