Games Workshop Share Discussion Threads

[nod] 13/7/2018 05:43

GAW gets a vote from Keith Ashworth-Lord, manager of the Sanford deLand UK Buffettology fund. As you know he's a big fan of GAW and uses Buffett's moat test. We don't compare with the other retailers in the article. Our point of difference is that we manufacturer products and sell them through 4,500 independent retailers, not owned by us. If we were measured solely on our own stores we would not look so good. We lose money most years and only break even in very good years. Our own stores are hobby centres rather than profit centres.Read more at: https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/money/high-street-survivors-which-retail-stocks-you-should-watch/

[nod] 12/7/2018 05:10

When talking about competitors recently, I was reminded that the indie stores are a good place to look. Goblin Gaming gets outstanding reviews and has a range of other products.https://www.goblingaming.co.uk

[nod] 12/7/2018 05:02

STOCKHOLM, SWEDEN - July 11, 2018. Independent developer Fatshark today announced that the million selling hit game Warhammer: Vermintide 2 is available on Xbox One, the all-in-one games and entertainment system from Microsoft, today.https://www.gamasutra.com/view/pressreleases/321838/WARHAMMER_VERMINTIDE_2_AVAILABLE_ON_XBOX_ONE_TODAY.phpToday is the day Xbox One owners get the chance to join the fight in Helmgart. Warhammer: Vermintide 2 has surpassed one million in sales on PC, and is now ready to conquer the living room."We are excited to bring Vermintide 2 to the Xbox community" says Martin Wahlund, CEO at Fatshark. "We are looking forward to take on Skaven and Chaos with the console gamers."There are two versions available via www.xbox.com, the Standard Edition ($29,99/€29,99/£23,99), and the Premium Edition ($44,99/€44,99/£35,99).

[flatoutfred] 11/7/2018 10:08

Crikey just back today and delighted to see this spike - but, why ??

[robbiereliable] 10/7/2018 15:46

Haven't you heard Nod, Theresa May has cancelled brexit.#windupmerchant

[nod] 10/7/2018 05:14

Receiving news releases about a new Blood Bowl set released this week.

Blood Bowl seems to have a cult following with numerous web sites dedicated to the sport.
"Witch Elves are powerful, fragile and expensive, the Ferrari of Blood Bowl." one wrote.

[nod] 09/7/2018 22:31

full year results on 31 July 2018.Most is known but we will get detailed breakdown of sales growth by region etc. GBP is turning negative again following little progress on Brexit. It's impossible to negotiate with a bunch of bureaucrats in the EU. The EU primary agenda is to make Exit as unpleasant as possible to deter other countries from considering this path.

[discodave4] 09/7/2018 00:39

robotYou numpty, have told you before to pm me and I am more than happy to exchange details.Sorry chaps, have a stalker with half a brain!.DD

[saucepan] 06/7/2018 12:59

Breaking out from a very constructive consolidation.

[cockerhoop] 05/7/2018 15:37

Releases coming thick & fast.......Kill Team detail

[nod] 02/7/2018 12:21

Trading is part of the environment that comes with the hobby store whether it be GW or one if the many indies. Trading models, terrain and services between players - skilled painters were in demand, I recall.

[robbiereliable] 02/7/2018 08:50

It's far more simple for me on GAW... Well I hope it is. The cap/profit is still well under 15, which maintains it as a very attractive share.Plus they have the advantage of customer retention. Modelling is a big addiction. I used to do it when I was younger and I still get tempted to buy a fresh model now and then. For the gamers there are lots of off shoots now outside the company that allow people to play with their old models.I would like to see GAW dip into the second hand market or maybe offer old models. EBay is a busy market for these models.

[cockerhoop] 30/6/2018 23:11

I'm not sure a 50% rise in share price during 2018 constitutes a 'bumpy ride'

Edit: Sorry more like 16% YTD, 50% since 1st Dec 17.

[woozle1] 30/6/2018 22:48

Nod,
Given the years you've followed this stock, it exists in its own cycle and that any correlations are just that and correlations work until they don't. I'm sure if you looked hard enough you could find a metal that correlates well with GAW.

I am waiting for any colour on AoS.
w1

[nod] 30/6/2018 22:19

Back in January I suggested keeping one eye on the S&P Luxury Goods Index and the other eye on the US dollar. The index was very strong through 2017 as luxury products were bought around the globe. However, 2018 has been a bumpy ride - as GAW has also experienced. Stock market sentiment has had its down days this year and the luxury sector is not immune. https://markets.ft.com/data/indices/tearsheet/summary?s=SPGLGUN:REU

[nod] 28/6/2018 13:09

santr0, i've seen the SW Revell models and they are very much like the airfix models I painted and glued as a kid. Much better quality nowadays. I would call that a hobby.

You can game play with models if you have enough of them (just like Warhammer).
The Revell kit sets are quite expensive.
There is also an Asian (Japanese?) company called Bandai who makes SW models.
Some of them are clic-fit requiring no glue.

I agree, Warhammer doesn't fit the Disney magical image. My suggestion of a merger was tongue in cheek.

[santr0] 28/6/2018 12:03

Potentially Star Wars models can be a significant competitor to GW, however, they are a bit different in terms of focus. GW is more focused on the hobby side and SW is more focused on the game itself, it offers much less in terms of model quality and complexity. Moreover currently SW brand is in a troublesome state now when people are tired from it, new Han Solo movie is a good example, so it is unlikely that they can be a huge threat to GW in a short-term, possibly in the long term.
I would not agree that Disney will ever want to acquire GW since their portfolio of franchisees has mostly family friendly, mass marketable brands. Warhammer is very far from being family and children friendly and it is a fairly niche product. It will be a huge risk for Disney and I don't see that they like risking anything at all. Furthermore, game-based films have a long history of failures, even Warcraft movie barely managed to earn any profit despite being well positioned for the success. So I believe that Disney would not want to add GW in the nearest future.

[nod] 28/6/2018 09:52

skirbell, I would agree that Star Wars models have been a competitor to GAW - this is only based on what I've read online and not any personal experience. Star Wars is a huge franchise and huge IP, which is why Disney paid USD 4 Billion for it.

Behind both brands are stories in film or books.
I believe many manufacturers make Star Wars products under licence. Which is exactly what GAW offers with its Warhammer licenses.
Synergies are there.

One day Disney may want to add Warhammer to its collection. GAW recently reached USD 1.4 Billion in market cap. It is not overpriced imho.

Disney has the moolah to make a great Warhammer movie.

[santr0] 28/6/2018 09:15

Thanks for so many great answers!

[skirbell] 28/6/2018 08:14

The biggest competitors to GAW that I can think of are the likes of Mantic, Warlord and Battlefront. None of these companies have the same size or IP that GAW has. Their hobby/miniature ranges aren't as extensive or have the same level of quality. So as already commented, GAW have little direct competition.

Fantasy Flight might be comparable with customer base and logistics. They had an agreement with GAW to produce some board games (now no longer in place) as this is their main strength - the board game market. However, FF recently extended their Star Wars licence and have created a table top game around this - same scale as 40k. If there is any IP that can compete with 40k in this area, Star Wars is likely to be it.

Where GAW do experience competition is in the size of the market that they feed in to. While this market is growing, it is relatively small. Kickstarter/Indiegogo has allowed a lot of small, niche companies to get funding to start producing games. While these games/companies individually pose no threat to GAW, collectively they are gaining a bigger share of the small market and taking potential revenue from GAW.

The new crowd funding stream has also allowed some of these small players to innovate quicker, something that GAW is having to react to - such as through the investment in its miniature tooling.

[nod] 28/6/2018 06:08

“In business, I look for economic castles protected by unbreachable ‘moats’.”
-Warren Buffett

[nod] 28/6/2018 04:04

In 2014, during a dark period for shareholders, Tom Kirby and his team, which included Kevin, had a contrary view to most shareholders describing it as “a really good year”. He recognised the importance of sustainable profits and reinforcing the economic moat.

[nod] 28/6/2018 03:55

The "Moat Test" has been applied for a decade (or two) but here is a recent article and a few words from The Sage himself.

“A truly great business must have an enduring ‘moat’ that protects excellent returns on invested capital,” Mr Buffett said in his letter to Berkshire shareholders (February 2008) for Year 2007.



GAW's IP is huge and grows every year. Tom Kirby and GAW has a reputation for protecting our IP in courts, where it can. It has successfully done this for decades. Protection is one of the moat tests.

[nod] 28/6/2018 00:37

santr0, fundamentalists like Warren Buffett would argue there are only a couple of things to value a company around and Top of the list is sustainability of profits going forward. He applies Buffett's "Moat Test", which in our case looks outstandingly positive for the reason you highlight - we have little competition.