Gama Aviation Share Discussion Threads

[larva] 20/12/2016 08:49

profit warning here coming imho

[czar] 20/12/2016 08:43

The trading update was 26th Jan last year.

[colonel a] 20/12/2016 08:25

Not simple indeed.
But more then 2/3 of the business is in $ but the market cap we see is in £.
As far as I can see {many/most ?} businesses that are predominately $ based have seen their £ market caps rise as the £ has collapsed.

It would be nice if the company could find an excuse to issue some sort of reassurance.

[paleje] 20/12/2016 00:02

Thanks twirl, I can't say I'm clear on it though, even after a glass of wine. I think you're saying its swings and roundabouts. I took an extract from the interims where management explained all, it didn't clear my thinking much:-

''The material currency exposure for Gama Aviation is within our EU operations in UK GBP to USD. Gama Aviation experiences both realized and unrealized trading gains/losses on these exchange rate movements. These impact our EBITDA. As the Pound weakens against the dollar, the UK businesses suffer both trading and translational losses.

However, Gama Aviation presently has a natural hedge within PBT. The intercompany loan structure within the group works in the opposite direction. As the UK GBP weakens against the USD, the group experiences foreign exchange gains within finance income.

Given the volatility of the GBP to USD exchange rates in the days before the H1 reporting date, Gama Aviation experienced sizeable losses within its Adjusted EBITDA and material gains within its finance income.''

I like things simple. that ain't simple:)

[twirl] 19/12/2016 20:45

Payments and receipts are recorded in the local currency.

As much of the Europe business is Hangar 8 it is mostly sterling which is around 13% lower FY 2016 cf FY2015. So all things being equal the $ gross profit will be 13% less in Europe ie a drop of around $3m.

However when this is converted to eps in £ to support a dividend in £ and an share price in £ the 13% drop is restored.

Er ,....................I think

[paleje] 19/12/2016 19:09

Czar, where does the adverse currency come in, aren't they largely earning in USD, both in the US and presumably in the east too. Wouldn't that counter any GBP weakness on services provided here?

[igoe104] 19/12/2016 16:21

Can only be a matter of time, before this takes off.

should be a interesting January for some of our holdings Rivaldo, including these ?

[czar] 19/12/2016 16:21

rivaldo agreed. Technically if they are going to report more than 10% below consensus they should have issued a profits warning. Clearly the market does not believe the brokers forecasts. I expect they will undershoot by about 10% probably down to adverse currency but I do like the business and a pe of something in low teens is more appropriate imho.

[twirl] 19/12/2016 16:16

IG have 115/125 100k/100

[rivaldo] 19/12/2016 16:04

It's already pretty disastrous czar :o))

As you say, if GMAA is performing "anything like" expectations then the downside is well and truly priced in and the upside is very large indeed.

If that comment about the MMs trying to keep the price down given the shortage of stock is true then the rise will be a humdinger.

[czar] 19/12/2016 15:41

It feels like the mm's are a bit short of this stock, they don't really want to sell any but are worried about it running up. If the company is performing anything like the brokers think this share must be worth double this price, if its not this will be a disaster.

[corrientes] 19/12/2016 15:23

Marwan Khalek quickly responded to an email I sent him recently expressing my concerns about the question of financial transparency and the steep decline in the share price.I also mentioned that certain small but high profile companies had ended up as disasters, and effectively said that if absolute transparency was not forthcoming, it might send the wrong message to the market.

Nothing new, but he did mention that the mid- January update would provide further clarification on the numbers.

The company is also obviously disappointed with the share price performance,but he did say it will communicate with investors as frequently and as clearly as possible.

If these numbers are finally accepted, then hopefully the present share price will soon be a distant memory.

[rivaldo] 19/12/2016 14:57

Online I can still buy a maximum of just 500 shares at 125p, whilst I can sell loads at 121p - a premium to the mid-price, let alone the 115p bid price.

At some point a big recovery is going to happen here imho.

[napoleon 14th] 16/12/2016 17:12

IG a bit cheeky... I was quoted 119/125, but had to 'phone the deal for 2000 shares!

As the darts commentator would say: "ONE HUNDRED AND TWENTY!".
Nice to see it hold!

[twirl] 16/12/2016 16:21

Me too.

Now 100k/100

[spooky] 16/12/2016 16:08

Used to have it on selftrade, sadly no more. I have an account at IG, i will take a look, thanks.

[twirl] 16/12/2016 15:44

yes and buy when one has no funds

Mostly a good indicator of supply and demand but I have been caught out a few times!

[spooky] 16/12/2016 15:13

twirl - Do IG let you check sell size when you don't own any?

[twirl] 16/12/2016 15:02

IG online have 115/125 25k/500

[colonel a] 16/12/2016 14:11

rivaldo,
currently 121 to sell.
Those big trades will have been delayed {a lot ?} and if they were sells it implies the MM's took a loss on them - not likely.
Things much improved since Wed.

[rivaldo] 16/12/2016 12:39

343,000 shares just traded at 120p - is that the final clearance of the seller?

[someuwin] 16/12/2016 11:18

Has to be a great buy at these levels.

[paleje] 16/12/2016 10:56

Just tried it can't buy 5k but can sell 5k at 119...NOT that I doubt your test riv but it's nice to see it on screen through whatever broker we use in my case HFX.

The thing that gets me and it shouldn't, because I've been around long enough, is the lack of response to perfectly polite and short emails asking if there's a known seller. Perhaps I'm getting sensitive in my old age.

Anyway, I won't be mailing to ask why its going up:)

[rivaldo] 16/12/2016 09:52

Moving up again - and still looking great online. I can only buy a maximum 500 shares online at 124p, whilst I can sell loads at a premium at 117.5p.

[rivaldo] 16/12/2016 07:43

As I said before, expectations as consensus from two analysts remain at 26.7p EPS.

So even if results come in 20% below expectations, that would still give 20p+ EPS.

Plus there's a sound Balance Sheet with room for further small to medium-sized acquisitions.

I remain convinced that there's been a particularly badly run selldown programme from an institutional investor. It now seems that that investor may now have run out of stock. Hopefully :o))