Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Galantas Gold LSE:GAL London Ordinary Share CA36315W2022 COM SHS NPV
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.40p +8.25% 5.25p 5.00p 5.50p 5.25p 5.00p 5.00p 56,074 08:37:38
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Mining 0.0 -1.2 -0.6 - 9.85

Galantas Gold Share Discussion Threads

Showing 20226 to 20249 of 20600 messages
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DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
03/4/2017
15:41
Sorry *valuation This phone is too small to be writing quick posts on!
el_duderino_7885
03/4/2017
12:28
Divmad I think the company will reach an appropriate baluatiob when: I) It turns a profit and demonstrates it is achieving the numbers on its DCF II) Sentiment improved in the industry overall Historically juniors they do well can return multiples to investors - I don't think the relatively small production is a big issue. GAL already has institutional support which is s good sign.
el_duderino_7885
03/4/2017
08:57
Another question for you. Do you think the market will pay up and give full value (using junior gold peer comparisons) for a modest gold mine producing just 15k oz pa? Even 60k pa won't reach the fulcrum point for serious gold mine output. Nice, but not premium status.
divmad
02/4/2017
22:27
No I wouldn't say it would be valued at zero. If the planning appeal is upheld the company would have to reapply for planning I would imagine. In that scenario I imagine the planning authorities would want it pushed through as quickly as possible due to their negligence if that was proven. It's the planning authorities being challenged not the company itself. It would mean more delays and a much lower share price undoubtedly.
el_duderino_7885
02/4/2017
22:16
Thanks for the replies. On the face of it, GAL is very lowly valued - for good reason due to the pending JR outcome. A binary bet here. Zero value versus 3-6x upside. Must do more research on the chances this JR will go in GAL's favour.
divmad
02/4/2017
21:30
Markets don't like uncertainty so for anybody that can think outside that parameter and live with it, then the risk/reward, as I said, is very interesting. Clearly one has to accept the risk is there and invest accordingly.
hazl
02/4/2017
20:48
200% even at three times the price.
el_duderino_7885
02/4/2017
20:48
Yeah if the news is good I can see the market cap doubling very quickly. What do people here think a fair valuation is based on good news? Assuming only 15k is achieved in the first year and £500 cash costs we'll have £7.5million FCf a year and a £30 milllion market cap isn't out of the question so 300% upside.
el_duderino_7885
02/4/2017
20:44
You have to include the debt though. HUM will be $55 million in debt by the time that mine is built. So you need to add that on to the market cap for a like for like comparison. GAL's debt is tiny in comparison. Plus it's in Africa so you would apply a huge discount based on that. New mines can often be delayed and rarely achieve planned production. That free cashflow of £55mn is a best case scenario and very unlikely to be achieved.
el_duderino_7885
02/4/2017
20:40
All, Yes, the 'short-term voting machine versus long-term weighing machine' truism occasionally creates some juicy ratings disparities. Currently GAL's risk-reward ratio is ridiculous, assuming the judicial review goes in our favour. It'll be interesting to see how much the MMs tack on in hour 1 following positive news but it'll still be an easy win IMO.
doobydave
02/4/2017
20:20
Divmad - FCF of around £12 million initially based on £20k production. Potentially £36 million if they ever reach their target of 60,000 oz.
el_duderino_7885
02/4/2017
19:35
Nobbygnome, I see you commented over on the Imm bb, where I am a largish investor. Here at Gal, can you point to any firm forward looking numbers for the company on free cash flow to be expected at current Gold prices, if and when production is allowed to go ahead after the JR? Basically, what's the upside from a standard valuation point of view, to the current MC of circa £13mn? For comparison, I own a good amount of HUM, which is predicting first year FCF of £55mn starting in December, against a current MC of £88mn. TIA.
divmad
02/4/2017
14:04
'The Russian central bank opened its first overseas office in Beijing on March 14, marking a step forward in forging a Beijing-Moscow alliance to bypass the US dollar in the global monetary system, and to phase-in a gold-backed standard of trade. According to the South China Morning Post the new office was part of agreements made between the two neighbours "to seek stronger economic ties" since the West brought in sanctions against Russia over the Ukraine crisis and the oil-price slump hit the Russian economy.' Relevant? Perhaps, perhaps not but interesting, nonetheless. from zerohedge thanks to roguetreader.
hazl
02/4/2017
12:11
Yes 100% the track record. This company has been a disaster for many years now. Even back in th days when they were producing, they managed some decent production for a year or so and rising profits only for planning issues to effectively shut down the mine. One of the best plays in a gold bull run is to invest in: I)re-opening mines; II) mines that have low cash costs; III) mines with amazing exploration potential Gal has al these strings to it's bow plus a CEO willing to dip in to his own pockets and also holding a huge stake in the company. This is far more than a hobby for Roland. Once he planning goes our way - fingers crossed and shipments begun this silly valuation will be a distant memory.
el_duderino_7885
02/4/2017
10:13
It is good to thrash these things out, whether they be ongoing prejudices....even if based on past factual record...or reputation, ill-deserved perhaps, by factors outside their control. There are several things that influence the eventual outcome. The judicial review is paramount. The macro environment economically and clearly following on from that, the direction of the gold-price both short and long-term will play a dominant part likewise. For all those factors to come together positively, as a future possibility, is why I have chosen to get a few here because of the great risk/reward ratio. IMO
hazl
02/4/2017
09:30
>>DD Yes I understand what you are saying. However, to be fair to Roland the mine has already produced a reasonable amount of gold from the open cast pit. He can't be blamed for all the procedural issues which have protracted the whole process. I guess ultimately what you say means that when it becomes obvious that the mine will produce gold at a good profit, there will be a serious rerating. Nobby
nobbygnome
02/4/2017
09:06
Nobby, I think the reason is simple enough. GAL has been pootling about on AIM going nowhere for a good decade, and is considered to have a track record of failure. Some view it as Roland's personal hobby. That's a very harsh assessment and not my own view, but for the market, GAL has it all to prove.
doobydave
02/4/2017
08:39
The real point here is that this situation is not like most small cap mining companies where they are years away from getting the stuff out of the ground. GAL have already begun digging the hole for the underground mine and are only months away from getting the ore out of the ground at a good profit. Someone explain to me why the company is only valued at £12 million (yes I know it may be different after a positive ruling!). Nobby
nobbygnome
01/4/2017
19:39
Nice summary bageo. Any timelines given on the various phases? The economics of this mine really are phenomenal. Once planning and capital are sorted this board is going to be buzzing with new investors. This is well worth watching for anyone interested in investing in the miners right now. I also have long term money in the GDXJ: hxxps://youtu.be/6GLdYJeI6oE
el_duderino_7885
01/4/2017
14:49
Thanks bageo! I took down some numbers but they didn't make much sense when I looked back at them. The economics of the mine really are very impressive now and with a positive judicial review outcome, there has to be a serious rerating here. In fact I am surprised more people haven't taken a punt on the review outcome; trading volumes have been low for the last few weeks. Nobby
nobbygnome
01/4/2017
13:23
Nobby has summarised well, other points I took were: The mine infrastructure e.g. haulage decline is sized for 40t haul trucks ready for a future scale upto 50koz/yr. Due to 43-101 rules the figures quoted are at £750 that the study was done at, while Roland was able to confirm that £990 gold improves economics no specific figure was able to be put on it. With Phase 1 (20koz/yr) cashflow positive at £750 clearly an extra c£5m cashflow is mostly profit that can pay for the scaling up of the mine to 30koz then 50koz/yr. Phase 1 production of 20koz/ye will be from 2 stoping panels and is slightly higher cost due to the lower volume - £430 cash cost vs £394 in Phase 2 (30koz/yr) The mill is ready to receive ore, having been test run after being on C&M. The Joshua vein intercept of 13m true width is a nice problem to have - working out how to mine. Gavin Harris leads the Operations team and has good experience turning round a loss making mine to be profitable - I think this may be the Henty gold mine but an not 100% on this. News on the splinter (from Kearny) vein shouldn't be long it is only 50m from the portal. Only 1 drill hole and at surface so no certainty and nothing is build into any forecasts and assumptions about it.
bageo
01/4/2017
02:33
All sounds positive. Thenks Nobby
el_duderino_7885
31/3/2017
08:22
Thanks Nobby.
panagos
31/3/2017
07:55
Overall a very upbeat presentation. Although Roland could not comment on the outcome of the judicial review the chairman made the point that the company wouldn't be developing the underground mine if they were expecting to get a negative review. Another emphasised point was the advantage of the plunge in the pound which means that currently since gold is about £1000 an ounce, the economics of the mine look much improved. There was detailed discussion of the different veins and he also talked up the other areas of their licenses where there is evidence for good levels of gold. All 3 veins are covered by the planning consent for the underground mine. In addition, there was mention of an extra small vein which may be hit early on in the underground mine development. It is not proven because of limited drilling evidence but we will find out soon if there is anything there. TC had a discussion with Roland about when we can expect some concentrate production and I am not sure, what the answer was. I hope he will comment later today. So overall positive but really it is all down to the judicial review result. That could come at any time but there is no visibility of when. I keep an eye on the court lists but Roland was not sure if it will be posted ahead of time. Nobby
nobbygnome
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