Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Gable Hldgs LSE:GAH London Ordinary Share KYG3705F1019 ORDS 0.25P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.00p +0.00% 2.00p 0 01:00:00
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
0.00p 0.00p - - -
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Nonlife Insurance 91.13 -24.26 -17.89 2.7

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Date Time Title Posts
08/5/201920:31GABLE HOLDINGS set to treble3,631
10/9/201311:32Gable: Full Year Profits and 2011/12 Outlook3

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jamielein: 1. Impossible to know what the sum of the parts is, and whether it's positive or negative, until you know how much future claims will cost. 2. The 'big boys' are not buying. Look at the share price chart over the last year. That will tell you all you need to know. 3. I can't say I fully understand what's going on here, other than I (along with many others on here) think that the company is most likely worthless. I really hope nobody is sucked into buying these based on comments like mw16's.
saucepan: Good luck with it. Sorry, I was not intending to rub salt into the wounds. GAH is however, quite instructive on just how far a share price can fall once an uptrend rolls over.
ramridge: The key question to me is whether this company has fire sale value, and if there is, what is it. Looking at the HY2015 figures, BV stood at £25m and Net BV at £17m. So on current share price, that's a discount of 32% and 19% respectively to the market value. On first impression it might attract a bid from a bigger player. But there is one factor that worries me. The balance sheet shows a huge amount of receivables, £90m. I don't see anywhere any provision for bad debts. Given the immense pressure the management has been under, it is not inconceivable that these receivables are inflated. If you apply say a 20% haircut that means £18m of dodgy receivables, which just about equals the market cap. That makes the value of the company pretty well zero. So my conclusion is that GAH is uninvestible both as an investment and as a punt. all IMO & please DYOR
aimingupward2: Well, some person(s) is/are buying today, so presumably they are confident of at least some improvement in the share price and don't think it's going bust. What might they know that the rest of us don't, I wonder?
the shuffle man: LMI don't suspect something fishy and expect to see the debtor figure come down and cash figure go up in the next set of results.Part of the debtor relates to ATE insurance where it takes a while for the actual premium to be converted to cash. GAH have stopped writing this business so over time will become much less of an issue.I also believe the company still thinks that the extra provisioning they have had to provide will ultimately be proved way too conservative and that there will be a large surplus to bring back maybe sometime in the future.Next years figures will be the first set of clean numbers without the extra provisioning which will show a big jump in profits and cash collection which will hopefully lead to a re-rate for the share price.I am holding on this belief. Hopefully I am right ?
the shuffle man: Eezy The way I see it the market was worried that GAH would have to raise more capital via an equity placing to support current business and future business based on the new tighter capital requirements under the new Solvency II requirements. The company have stated that they are not going to issue equity and may raise debt and use more reinsurance contracts to satisfy the requirements hence the bounce in the share price last week. IF the provisioning is now correct they should make a decent profit next year and the shares IMO look cheap at current levels. Anyway all should be revealed when the results are released on the 10th Sep. TSM
glasshalfull: finnCap provided a brief update following Monday's trading update, "The interims due 10 September will provide an opportunity for the group to update the market on trading. The shares have been weak following comment in the finals that the group was exploring routes to meet the requirements of Solvency 11. Concern over a potentially dilutive equity raise encouraged the share price to retreat to below NAV. This morning’s news is that the group has announced that any moves on solvency capital will not result in an approach to the market. Gable continues to strengthen reserves, and feeding in new lines of business such as the Italian motor fleet business will sustain momentum. We see the current share price at a low point, therefore offering a buying opportunity. Market expectations for the current year profit are modest in the light of current reserving actions but an earnings recovery is anticipated for 2016." I'm not aware of finnCap's estimates in light of 2014 results, but believe the last forecasts from Numis prior to the Zeus switch indicated that GAH would deliver 7p EPS for 2016, on assumption that the actuarial reserve gap would be closed in 2015, & that a 2.0p dividend was also mooted next year. Kind regards, GHF
battlebus2: Yes a lot has to said about how this company has been badly or even mismanaged, almost too many to list and all documented in various excellent posts above. I've been asked by a few fellow investors why are you still here flogging a dead horse?? Well if I'd bought at 50p or above likewise I'd have sold down a few times so can fully understand why everyone has jumped ship. The difference now is the risks are for me almost all in the current price and the market has punished the share price accordingly. After buying on Friday my average is now 34p with the current share price 27/28 so still a long way to break even. I feel we can get back to atleast that price so happy to be a holder for now. I have been in contact with the co expressing my disappointment and distrust and have received some reassurance that barring another unforeseen major claim the procedures are in place to see us through the next growth phase. Time will tell I guess and as ever no advice intended DYOR etc.
saucepan: I certainly see no point in selling because the share price is falling because there is no reason for it falling other than lack of newsflow and the fact that AIM shares are taking a battering in general. It is my investment experience that significant share price movement often precedes the release of news. City insiders and other privileged individuals get wind of what is happening before private investors. This is also an observation that investment gurus themselves tend to corroborate. Coincidentally, if I was to cite an example of this, I would probably choose what happened to Gable: i.e. the "significant property fire" that was only reported to the public in 11 September 2014 results. With the benefit of hindsight, it is clear that others knew of the fire when it happened or shortly thereafter: hence the share price weakness that was not understood by private investors at the time. These observations are made in a spirit of constructive discussion and to help share investment experience; not to rub anyone up the wrong way.
aimingupward2: Dire cons - I don't think the market does 'value' AIM companies very often, nor do marketeers 'decide where the share price should belong'. A lot of it is happenstance. The share price is where it is as a result of the buying and selling which has gone on and much of this will have taken place as a reflection of the perceived short term performance and prospects of the share price. Selling, very often, is just because better short term prospects are seen elsewhere. These traders are not making any attempt to value the company. I see good prospects here and have a holding; I'm willing to be a bit patient. What I wouldn't want to do is sell out near the bottom only to learn afterwards that the share price recovers strongly and I've missed it. It's happened to me before and it's even more frustrating than being patient and hoding on. The only proviso is that one has researched the company and can feel confident that it will prosper. P.S. No 'short' positions are reported as being held on GAH, so the company is not under attack by (professional/institutional) short sellers.
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