Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Thorpe (f.w.) Plc LSE:TFW London Ordinary Share GB00BC9ZLX92 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  9.00 2.74% 337.00 330.00 344.00 0.00 0.00 - 56,027 16:35:23
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Electronic & Electrical Equipment 110.6 19.6 13.9 24.2 392

Thorpe (f.w.) Share Discussion Threads

Showing 1 to 20 of 325 messages
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It was tipped on 16/04/04 in the Motley Fool Value Newsletter.
Excitement over.
mark c graham
Hugepants - Still no analysts' forecasts. Second half profit margin would have to be at a level of about 110% of my estimate to deliver 30p EPS. Alternatively, second half turnover would need to be 110% of my forecast. Each of these (or some combination) is possible but, I think, unlikely. Langland - It's been undervalued for some time now. I suspect somebody must have tipped it to create this little flurry of interest.
mark c graham
Yep perhaps. Given H2 being considerably stronger than H1 last year and the interim statement that the businesses are on 'a growth path' could an eps of 30p could be on the cards?
Volume would be higher if it were a tipsheet. Going up because it is fundamentally undervalued as illustrated by the start of the thread and MCg's analysis.
This rise surely must have some news behind it. Perhaps mentioned on a tipsheet? BTW. Are there any analysts estimates around?
Up 6% on steady small buying today. Now at its highest level since 1996. 290p for its all-time high.
mark c graham
I wholeheartedly agree. Management should be returning this cash to shareholders, either through rebasing the dividend or share buy-backs (or both). The main downside risk on this share is, I think, that rather than do these things, they will make an ill-judged acquisition.
mark c graham
Yep but why is the dividend so miserly when the company has a big pile of cash and a highly profitable business?
I've added cash per share to the header. At 236.5p, the prospective PE ratio is 8.5, dropping to 6.4 excluding cash. The share pays a decent, progressive dividend and continues to generate surplus cash, in spite of having stepped up capital spending.
mark c graham
westcountryboy, My approach to forecasting for this company is purely mathematical. (It has to be since I know nothing about the lighting industry). I have set up a spreadsheet recording the half-yearly P&L Account, Balance Sheet and Cashflow Statement going back to the half year to December 1999. I use regression techniques with seasonal adjustments to project certain key parameters forwards. These include turnover, profit margin (adjusted for depreciation), stocks as a %age of turnover, debtors as a %age of turnover and creditors as a %age of turnover. Add in a few more assumptions, e.g. depreciation rate, tax rate, investment return, and you have enough to build projections of the full set of accounts for the next few periods. This is a simple business with simple accounts, so my approach will work well whilst everything remains "simple". If anything out of the ordinary happens, I'll get it wrong. With regard to your questions, turnover is consistently above trend in H1 and below trend in H2, but profit margins show the reverse pattern.
mark c graham
I estimate prospective EPS at 27.7p (now in header).
mark c graham
Penpont - I am reworking just now and will post shortly. My forecast will be higher than that.
mark c graham
I am new to this share - has anyone got a full year eps forecast? Would something in the region of 25/26p be about right?
Nice forecast, MCG. If you strip out the cash, co. is trading at 5 times potential operating profit. (I am just doubling the £1.7mn to £3.4 for the year which is probably too conservative.) All time high was near 290 in 1995. I wouldn't bet against the price reaching that again.
10 years, goldthorpe - I think you need an exit strategy!
mark c graham
Mark, I've had a chunk in my own name for 10 years, bought at 1.65 and a bigger number in a PEP bought for 1.49 6 years ago. Been happy with the divi, though the business has been a bit lumpy. Will probably hang on for 10 more years. I hate selling!
Offer price on 17/03/04: 209p Income received since 17/03/04: 8.6p Bid price at 18/01/05: 352p Return to date: +72.5% F.W. Thorpe is an LSE-listed manufacturer of lighting products. It has been consistently profitable, has no debt, and is highly cash generative. It is not covered by any analysts and has, I believe, been overlooked by the market. Interims are out tomorrow, and I forecast the following. Turnover: £17.3m (+5%) Pre-tax profit: £1.7m (+15%) Dividend: 2.0p (+5%) Cash: £7.3m (+50%) NAV per share: 195.8p (+10%) The investment case for the business is easily made based on the normal criteria of PE ratio, dividend yield, etc. But what makes this really interesting is the cash position. Basically, the company already has much more cash than it needs, and is continuing to generate more. They have given no indication of what they are going to do with this cash, but rebasing the dividend or share buy-backs are what they should be looking at. The headline historical PE ratio under my forecasts is 8.3, which is the lowest in its sector. Backing out the cash reduces this to 6.2. My full year profit forecast is £4.3m, giving a prospective PE ratio of 7.2 (5.6, excluding the cash). I bought in (too early) at 223p. My exit strategy is to sell at a prospective PE ratio of 12, which represents a price of 346p, under my analysis. Update 18/03/04 ------------------------- Excellent interims, with all key figures slightly better than my forecasts. Turnover : £17.8m (+9%) Pre-tax profit : £1.9m (+28%) Dividend : 2.20p (+16%) Cash : £7.4m (+53%) NAV per share : 194.9p (+10%) My updated full year forecasts are: Turnover : £35.1m (+7%) Pre-tax profit : £4.4m (+18%) Cash : £8.9m (+32%) = 75.9p per share EPS : 27.7p (+24%) Dividend : 7.2p (+9%) NAV per share: 206.4p (+11%) Update 16/09/04 ------------------------ Superb full year numbers, with all figures except cash better than forecast. Turnover : £37.8m (+14%) Pre-tax profit : £5.4m (+44%) Dividend : 8.6p (+30%) Cash : £7.6m (+12%) NAV per share : 209.7p (+13%) My forecasts for full year 2004/2005 are: Turnover : £37.8m (+1%) Pre-tax profit : £5.9m (+9%) Cash : £11.5 (+52%) = 97.4 per share EPS : 37.8p (+15%) Dividend : 10.0p (+16%) NAV per share: 237.4p (+13%) My forecasts for the interims on 17 March are: Turnover : £18.7m (+5%) Pre-tax profit : £2.2m (+18%) Cash : £9.0m (+21%) EPS : 14.3p (+28%) Dividend : 2.6p (+18%) NAV per share : 221.4p (+14%) ############################################################### Revised target price based on prospective PE ratio of 12: £4.53 ###############################################################
mark c graham
An interesting share until I saw the dreaded words "defined benefits" on note 25 of the Annual Report. I expect the pension deficit to rise again this year to 30th June 2003. Eventually the P/L will have to take a big hit. FRS17 casts a long shadow.
If you want a steady company overlooked. 4.7 % Yeild PE of 6 Growth prospects. Any one else looking?
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