Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Thorpe (f.w.) Plc LSE:TFW London Ordinary Share GB00BC9ZLX92 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.00p +0.00% 327.00p 316.00p 338.00p - - - 4,083 12:02:06
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Electronic & Electrical Equipment 109.6 19.6 13.9 23.5 380

Thorpe (f.w.) Share Discussion Threads

Showing 1 to 13 of 325 messages
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DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
05/4/2004
13:55
I wholeheartedly agree. Management should be returning this cash to shareholders, either through rebasing the dividend or share buy-backs (or both). The main downside risk on this share is, I think, that rather than do these things, they will make an ill-judged acquisition.
mark c graham
04/4/2004
19:35
Yep but why is the dividend so miserly when the company has a big pile of cash and a highly profitable business?
hugepants
23/3/2004
07:07
I've added cash per share to the header. At 236.5p, the prospective PE ratio is 8.5, dropping to 6.4 excluding cash. The share pays a decent, progressive dividend and continues to generate surplus cash, in spite of having stepped up capital spending.
mark c graham
19/3/2004
07:15
westcountryboy, My approach to forecasting for this company is purely mathematical. (It has to be since I know nothing about the lighting industry). I have set up a spreadsheet recording the half-yearly P&L Account, Balance Sheet and Cashflow Statement going back to the half year to December 1999. I use regression techniques with seasonal adjustments to project certain key parameters forwards. These include turnover, profit margin (adjusted for depreciation), stocks as a %age of turnover, debtors as a %age of turnover and creditors as a %age of turnover. Add in a few more assumptions, e.g. depreciation rate, tax rate, investment return, and you have enough to build projections of the full set of accounts for the next few periods. This is a simple business with simple accounts, so my approach will work well whilst everything remains "simple". If anything out of the ordinary happens, I'll get it wrong. With regard to your questions, turnover is consistently above trend in H1 and below trend in H2, but profit margins show the reverse pattern.
mark c graham
18/3/2004
15:18
I estimate prospective EPS at 27.7p (now in header).
mark c graham
18/3/2004
12:38
Penpont - I am reworking just now and will post shortly. My forecast will be higher than that.
mark c graham
18/3/2004
12:35
I am new to this share - has anyone got a full year eps forecast? Would something in the region of 25/26p be about right?
penpont
18/3/2004
09:47
Nice forecast, MCG. If you strip out the cash, co. is trading at 5 times potential operating profit. (I am just doubling the £1.7mn to £3.4 for the year which is probably too conservative.) All time high was near 290 in 1995. I wouldn't bet against the price reaching that again.
langland
18/3/2004
06:46
10 years, goldthorpe - I think you need an exit strategy!
mark c graham
17/3/2004
13:56
Mark, I've had a chunk in my own name for 10 years, bought at 1.65 and a bigger number in a PEP bought for 1.49 6 years ago. Been happy with the divi, though the business has been a bit lumpy. Will probably hang on for 10 more years. I hate selling!
goldthorpe
17/3/2004
12:34
Offer price on 17/03/04: 209p Income received since 17/03/04: 8.6p Bid price at 18/01/05: 352p Return to date: +72.5% F.W. Thorpe is an LSE-listed manufacturer of lighting products. It has been consistently profitable, has no debt, and is highly cash generative. It is not covered by any analysts and has, I believe, been overlooked by the market. Interims are out tomorrow, and I forecast the following. Turnover: £17.3m (+5%) Pre-tax profit: £1.7m (+15%) Dividend: 2.0p (+5%) Cash: £7.3m (+50%) NAV per share: 195.8p (+10%) The investment case for the business is easily made based on the normal criteria of PE ratio, dividend yield, etc. But what makes this really interesting is the cash position. Basically, the company already has much more cash than it needs, and is continuing to generate more. They have given no indication of what they are going to do with this cash, but rebasing the dividend or share buy-backs are what they should be looking at. The headline historical PE ratio under my forecasts is 8.3, which is the lowest in its sector. Backing out the cash reduces this to 6.2. My full year profit forecast is £4.3m, giving a prospective PE ratio of 7.2 (5.6, excluding the cash). I bought in (too early) at 223p. My exit strategy is to sell at a prospective PE ratio of 12, which represents a price of 346p, under my analysis. Update 18/03/04 ------------------------- Excellent interims, with all key figures slightly better than my forecasts. Turnover : £17.8m (+9%) Pre-tax profit : £1.9m (+28%) Dividend : 2.20p (+16%) Cash : £7.4m (+53%) NAV per share : 194.9p (+10%) My updated full year forecasts are: Turnover : £35.1m (+7%) Pre-tax profit : £4.4m (+18%) Cash : £8.9m (+32%) = 75.9p per share EPS : 27.7p (+24%) Dividend : 7.2p (+9%) NAV per share: 206.4p (+11%) Update 16/09/04 ------------------------ Superb full year numbers, with all figures except cash better than forecast. Turnover : £37.8m (+14%) Pre-tax profit : £5.4m (+44%) Dividend : 8.6p (+30%) Cash : £7.6m (+12%) NAV per share : 209.7p (+13%) My forecasts for full year 2004/2005 are: Turnover : £37.8m (+1%) Pre-tax profit : £5.9m (+9%) Cash : £11.5 (+52%) = 97.4 per share EPS : 37.8p (+15%) Dividend : 10.0p (+16%) NAV per share: 237.4p (+13%) My forecasts for the interims on 17 March are: Turnover : £18.7m (+5%) Pre-tax profit : £2.2m (+18%) Cash : £9.0m (+21%) EPS : 14.3p (+28%) Dividend : 2.6p (+18%) NAV per share : 221.4p (+14%) ############################################################### Revised target price based on prospective PE ratio of 12: £4.53 ###############################################################
mark c graham
20/3/2003
15:47
An interesting share until I saw the dreaded words "defined benefits" on note 25 of the Annual Report. I expect the pension deficit to rise again this year to 30th June 2003. Eventually the P/L will have to take a big hit. FRS17 casts a long shadow.
skyracer
14/2/2002
18:25
If you want a steady company overlooked. 4.7 % Yeild PE of 6 Growth prospects. Any one else looking?
s34icknote
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