Fulcrum Utility Services... Share Discussion Threads

[zeppo] 16/8/2018 21:07

anley

Agreed on smartmeters.

No legal obligation to have one, I believe.

I am part of a university energy use, monitoring scheme, which has a device attached to the main cable in my meter box. I can check usage on my computer any time I wish. Seldom do, however.

Surely we know when we have devices on?

I get rewards for being in this university scheme: eg 8 free LED bulbs and cash rewards.

Horror future scenario is Energy companies being able to charge higher rates at peak usage times etc.

All part of the 'big brother' world where everything we do is monitored.

Every electrical device has an energy use rating. Newer ones have lower energy use ratings.

Some like CCTV, freezers etc may be on 24:7. Others we can switch off.

The future, to thwart the greedy energy providers, is home fuel cells/solar, and even better insullation etc.

Make your own decisions on energy saving!

Recently concerns have been expressed about switching suppliers and 'smartmeters' not being able to adapt.



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[topvest] 16/8/2018 20:19

Sorry, not sure I agree with you and I don't think the charging points is the main driver really other than doing work that needs doing. It wasn't easy turning around Fulcrum. National Grid virtually gave the company away and it was loss making. They have done a tremendous job turning the business back into a low cost operator with a strong market position. This has 10-bagged shareholder value from the difficult days post-IPO when the turnaround wasn't working. That took 5 years or so, but has resulted in quite a bit of value as remember that National Grid had invested a lot in the business (which is a barrier to entry for others). In my view they have already done the really difficult bit of internalising the workforce and transforming the profitability and contract performance. They now need to build on the successes made in electricity as well as gas. Not easy, but business never is. They haven't really made any big mistakes so far and I'm confident that they have a good chance!

[anley] 16/8/2018 14:04

Ester......if you are pointing your finger at me then fine BUT I do own 3333 shares in this business.

I thought ADVFN was a BB where people could exchange views and then draw their own conclusions as to invest or not?

In the case of Fulcrum they have a great deal of work to make this a share which will "fly". The easy bit has been done and I wont go in to that BUT now its Stage 2 which is always difficult. Will BP and Shell be better at rolling out charging points and who is going to get their foot in the door with the supermarkets.........take a look at ZAP & GO and ask yourself is this the way to go? I am an indirect investor in that business via Versarien (VRS).

Now there is a hint..............

As I have mentioned before I am unable to attend the AGM as I shall be away abroad but in the meantime will continue with research in to a number of possible investments.

[esther1975] 16/8/2018 11:54

The joys of investments is differing views points and speculation. It amazes me on how some people spend so much time and research posting info on a share they don't currently own.

[anley] 16/8/2018 11:29

Shareholders need to consider the long term implications on the partnership they have with ChargePoint.

Since announcing the partnership in late 2017 not much has happened but it is the costs and subsequent profitability which worries me. Back in the mid 1990's I remember getting involved with raising substantial funds for the digging up of roads to lay fibre for TV and then Broadband. The capital costs were huge and those that were involved and who had SE quotations never did well and were eventually merged.

Have we got this senerio all over again?

On the Smart Meter front.......I refuse to have one - again I question the BOD thinking in a very troubled market where the consumer is suddenly waking up to the fact that these boxes are rubbish and do not help save energy. Don't buck the market unless your product and service is the best and have the BOD told us that.

Still not a buyer............

[jinnn1] 08/8/2018 20:06

by Introducing a management incentive scheme which has terms that they will only vest if the share price hits 100p (60%) and 130p (40%) for me is a good indication that my objectives of this investment is aligned with that of the board (increase share price, valuation and growth etc..) with the balance sheet and reports as it is, I can see that this is an achievable objective.

Yes I do agree it was a PR disaster but with such a good annual report, balance sheet strength and the fact the company has no debt I feel this outways the sell offs. We don’t know the reason for the sell offs that’s the problem.

The only thing that concerns me with this stock is how well the integration is going between fulcrum and Dunamis. Sometimes acquisations can produce a lot of inefficiency so my most immediate concern is understanding that.

With the AGM in September hopefully this will shed light on all these points and the sell offs. The problem is we will not know until then which is why market sentiment is understandably low.

The key thing for me is that the financials are happy, unless that starts to change I will keep my positive outlook for fulcrum.

I’m still researching into the EV market so I cannot give an opinion as of yet. (No financial advice intended)

[topvest] 08/8/2018 12:36

I’m happy to stay on board. The directors sold a bunch to lock in a massive gain and to presumably derisk their personal finances. Don’t think you can blame them and I’m sure they remain committed to the business. The share price has consolidated above the placing price, which is not unexpected.

[anley] 08/8/2018 12:25

JINNN1.......not sure what you are getting at........could you please enlighten us.

Why should the introduction of a simple management share plan help the share price and lets discount for the moment the "solid foundations.........." as that is always repeated by small listed companies.

Last night at our monthly investment club everyone agreed that the way certain directors had sold large blocks was a PR disaster........one civil engineer and myself started to question how the arrangement on electric power battery charging would pan out and how profitable this could be...........and there were other detailed questions we asked as well as two members of our investment club are former City fund/hedge managers well used to investing in small businesses.

Here we are trying to invest but through one silly action we are now taking a much more robust look at this business and the managements background. We also suspect that the brokers had a hand in this fiasco.

[jinnn1] 07/8/2018 22:37

Quite surprised not too see a stock movement considering the recent management incentive scheme which will align management with shareholders to give a decent return on current share price. Also in this announcement they reaffirmed there statement of solid foundations for growth etc... which signals too me all is well considering the last set of director sell offs. No financial advice intended.

[anley] 06/8/2018 15:42

I am still undecided about the business so when I get back from an oveseas trip in early October I will go and see them.

That will give me more time to see what the price has been doing as well as what may be said at the AGM.

They are not the only business trying to make good profits from chargable batteries etc BUT the UK is still a long way off finding the miricle of how to do it cheaply and quickly.

[topvest] 03/8/2018 11:51

They are quite cash generative as a business as they receive large payments in advance of the work being undertaken. The payments on account number in the accounts is a good lead indicator of activity levels, so you don’t want this creditor balance going down. This means that they don’t need to carry much working capital at all and have historically run the business with a negative balance sheet without any issues as the net cash balance was high given the payments in advance. This has been fixed with more equity being raised. Of course, they are now using their cash flow to invest in more gas and electric assets which will absorb significant cash flow. Free cash flow will reduce because of this. Nevertheless once purchased these pipeline assets are very cash generative themselves and are a very high quality regulated cash flow.

[anley] 03/8/2018 10:29

Topvest........I think there should be some form of employee saving scheme but not this wholesale give away which has recently undermined the share price and will take really strong profit growth to get it back to the 75p level.

For those who are buying in may have a better chance to see 65p to 100p over the next 2/3 years but for me I still want to know how the CASH FLOW of this group works. So they use factoring etc.

That said please have a read of the following press release. hxxps://www.fitchratings.com/site/pr/10039730

[topvest] 02/8/2018 18:12

I’m not a big fan of these management incentive schemes as the employees don’t put any cash in, but a clear incentive for them to double the share price which is good I suppose. Be surprised if this doesn’t get to £1 at some point in the next few years.

[anley] 30/7/2018 13:51

A slight pick up in the share price but if you go back several of us are questioning the last set of report and accounts and this was before the price came tumbling down.

For me I want to see how the cash flow is managed and how the big deal is bedding down and to do that I was going to go to the AGM but am now going into hospital for a small op. Until later in the year I will just watch and wait as something is not quite right and its no good trying to talk to the brokers as they don't like private investors and hide behing nonsensical EU laws like Mifid.

I will come up North and have a look around and see what I can find.

I will get to the bottom of how good an investment will be as it seems to be in the right growth sectors.........look at who the competition is..........management..and more but it will be over the coming months.

[jeanesy] 30/7/2018 09:35

a couple of 50k sales gone through first thing. I expect to see this drop further as a result.

[iceman82] 29/7/2018 20:47

good point... i think ex divi date is next month , lets see how they perform this week,

[pireric] 29/7/2018 20:40

It's mechanical from the Dunamis deal; the fact that there was a placing keeps the balance sheet intact but means the level of EPS accretion is reduced vs. if it was an all debt deal. Forecasts are for 4.5p of EPS, down 2% y/y

[iceman82] 29/7/2018 20:32

i have heard this already that eps projection looks not so good and therefor share price could be depressed for few months, but that just speculating...

[pireric] 29/7/2018 20:24

Totally fair topvest. I have this on c. 15x next year's earnings (2019) adjusted for net working capital. Not much EPS growth f/c, from deal dilution and not really sure if there is much room for multiple expansion might be the concern

[topvest] 29/7/2018 20:16

Just a bit of a pull back to the placing price or just above in my view. You can’t really blame directors for taking some cash out given they have 10 folded. In my view it’s never looked better. They have multiple growth areas available with the move into electricity and asset ownership. I’d be more worried if someone like Philip Holder, the Chairman, started selling shares!

[iceman82] 29/7/2018 19:57

who is canaccord ?

[iceman82] 29/7/2018 19:56

it is concerning this director sales i admit....

[pireric] 29/7/2018 19:36

Presumably some concern this is still pretty cyclical esp on the major project/key account side. Don't think it would have been the smart meter fiasco of recent that SMS.L has dropped on the back of as pretty immaterial here.

Will think further. £2.7m of director sales recently around 70p not helping for sure + Canaccord's holders reducing somewhat

[iceman82] 29/7/2018 17:44

i will see where the price goes this week , already looks attractive but would love to get cheaper if it goes north then i will leave it....

[topvest] 29/7/2018 17:36

I don’t think the story has changed. Happy to hold.