Frontier Developments Share Discussion Threads

[scooper72] 04/6/2021 17:59

Glad I topped up a little two days ago. Just wish it had been more than £1k

[yankhanson] 04/6/2021 16:45

@FI, when reading the "shipped" number, don't forget to subtract all the returns. Except FDEVs trading update won't be telling us the number of return, I'm sure.

[sogoesit] 04/6/2021 16:22

Yes, next week TU will be interesting.
After all, they said nothing about Odyssey in the notice today…. nada, zilch.
Sustained buying today too.

[fledgling1nvestor] 04/6/2021 16:05

Yank still living in denial I see.

I predict that next week's trading update will state that at least 500K units of Elite Dangerous Odyssey have already shipped despite the launch criticism.

[bat5hit] 04/6/2021 15:45

I know that EDO release got a lot of bad press, but it's still worth noting there were record numbers of players online. Even now, with all the supposed bugs, there's still close to 10,000 players online (according to Steam Charts).Planet Zoo and Coaster are both bobbing along, and the Frontier Foundry label seems to be making some headway. I, for one, am eagerly awaiting the update.

[yankhanson] 04/6/2021 15:12

“an increasingly busy release pipeline”, Liberum Capital Markets said

Hmm. It can hardly get less busy from this FY, which delivered no sign of the £40m blockbuster Liberum predicted, one new game that failed even to reach the top #100, slippage of the only other new game to next year ... and the utterly disastrous Elite Dangerous update "Odyssey".

Yes 2020 can't be anything but bigger.

[pob69] 04/6/2021 14:34

Article with liberum and shore cap comments

[bat5hit] 04/6/2021 07:07

Pretty cool. 2022 is looking like it's shaping up to be a good year for Fdev.

[fledgling1nvestor] 03/6/2021 18:40

No snafu on that logo:



Warhammer 40,000: Chaos Gate - Daemonhunters being developed by Complex Games, due out in 2022.

[bat5hit] 02/6/2021 14:51

Think you're right and it may well be an error. By the looks of it there will be a sneak peak of Age of Sigmar.If that is the case, here's hoping it looks good - which it should, as Frontier appear to be great at cinematic trailers. If they keep messing up gameplay, they can always set themselves up as a VFX company I suppose!

[fledgling1nvestor] 02/6/2021 13:39

Frontier are listed as a partner on that Stream, strangely under their Frontier Foundry (third party publishing arm) logo rather than their standard one. Bit weird if they're going to drop a cinematic trailer for the Age of Sigmar game as that's internally developed.

Do they have another ace in the Warhammer hole? Perhaps one of their foundry signings was another Warhammer game being developed by a third party studio.

Or it could simply be a snafu on the logo. I guess we'll find out tomorrow.

[bat5hit] 02/6/2021 11:50

There's a Warhammer gaming announcement tomorrow, I believe. Perhaps that could prove to be a catalyst for a change in sentiment.Alternatively, it could plummet... might as well toss a coin really.

[davelakes] 02/6/2021 11:39

Well no. That’s why it needs to hit £23 to see where it’s going to shake out, up or down

[p1nkfish] 01/6/2021 23:54

Unfortunately it's not looking very healthy chart wise.

[davelakes] 01/6/2021 16:14

The price is headed towards £23 where it will test two previous support levels. If it breaks below we will probably see further retracement with the stock attracting shorts. If the bulls win there should be a healthy bounce. I have a position

[yankhanson] 26/5/2021 01:44

First press review of Odyssey.

"
Then there are the bugs. Just so. Many. Bugs. The servers are constantly crashing, ejecting commanders violently out of their sessions. Many have returned from a kick to find all of their missions gone, items looted on-foot lost to the void, and sometimes utterly stuck if they were utilizing the new Apex travel service during the crash. The lighting contrast is beyond broken: planets often rival stars now in brightness, but the darker aspects of the image are damn near impossible to see even at max brightness. As mentioned earlier, the updated planet generation is either bugged or broken.

These are just a few of the many issues Elite Dangerous: Odyssey is suffering from. The lack of team missions and mission sharing, missions glitching out and sending commanders across the galaxy for little incentive, and other problems all come together to create one of the most frustrating expansion launches I’ve ever played
"
hxxps://attackofthefanboy.com/reviews/elite-dangerous-odyssey-review/

[yankhanson] 26/5/2021 01:42

FledgelingInvestor wrote "Give it a couple of weeks and things with the community will blow over once most of the game breaking bugs have been tackled."

A couple of weeks? FDEvs official bug tracker shows qty of bugs reported in the many thousands, and the three fix attempts so far have covered less than one hundred. Barring a miracle, the current rate of progress will take about 30 years get Odyssey into a saleable state.

And since you compare this Odyssey fail with the previous ED expansion fail Horizons, remember that the fix to Horizons was to withdraw it from sale and reissue as a season pass which took nearly two years for extar development costs to actually deliver the paid-for value.

PS Horizons' death knell was sounded by Steam slapping and Early Access tag on it. Odyssey just got one too. In case you don't know, Early Access means the product is still under development,. is not fit for sale as finished product, and may never be.

[gswredland] 25/5/2021 18:05

Thanks for the informed posts guys. Nice that have a bb where there is no bickering!

[adamb1978] 25/5/2021 17:06

No problem Nimbo. You might get an opportunity at say £23-£24 I think. The share price has some volatility around it so worth keeping an eye on and getting in there would be a great chance for a solid-ish 25% p.a. for a few years, similar to BOO I think

[adamb1978] 25/5/2021 16:59

Hi Sogoesit

I agree that value should continue to build, and management have grown turnover 10x from 2014 to 2021. I'm not saying that they'll grow 10x over the next 7 years but the forecasts are for somewhere in the 40%-50% growth in the year to May-22 and backing a management team which has delivered and where the company operates in a growing market is never a daft idea!!

On the 10-15 year thing, its possible as DB is only 57 so could easily be around that long. I wouldnt be surprised though if they get a higher enough offer from one of the large US cos and sell before then though. Would be nice to see them carry on and make the FTSE100 thoug....

Adam

[nimbo1] 25/5/2021 16:56

Adam thats fair - thanks for the ratings on the comparables... will continue to keep a close watch here in case opportunity presents.

[sogoesit] 25/5/2021 16:49

Great comments...

This company is definitely a long term game in my view (10 years plus).
Their announced pipeline to date means an investor probably has to wait at least 3, if not 5, years to be able to gauge the results of the current work. So that leaves the future pipeline build as a bonus as well.

Release cycle or not, that's how the pipeline is set. We, the market, should know that (I didn't when I started, however). The only way to overcome this is to invest more in people and systems as one would in any factory. But I don't think that's the way UK management, and investors, think. The US investor culture, however, is another matter.

My prediction is is that the likelihood of it being sold is high. I give it 10/15 years or so.

[adamb1978] 25/5/2021 16:45

Hi Nimbo

I dont think Nintendo are the right comp - they do consoles etc rather than being a games developer and therefore scalability and margins are very different.

The comps are Activision Blizz, EA, Ubisoft, Team17, Take-two, Square Enix, Paradox, Embracer, which is a decent enough sized set.

When I last updated them, that group were on about 23.1x LTM EBITDA and 19.5x current year. My figures have FDEV were 22.9x and 16.1x for the year to May-22, so they're broadly in-line. On a sales basis, the comps were 9.9x LTM and 6.9x CY, vs 9.9x and 6.7x for FDEV. I havent gone through annualising the multiples and there are some wierd year ends but those figures (a couple months out of date) suggested its broadly in-line, and then you need to take a view on relative growth rates

Adam

[nimbo1] 25/5/2021 16:19

The next full title needs to deliver imo if you want FDEV to continue to carry a premium rating in the post lockdown world. (Nintendo is on about 15x earnings!) and after all the latest ED update is only a DLC but priced as a decent game.

I don't want to be seen as too negative here though - I really like the company and would definitely be a buyer again, but I will hold off until the next update. (Thanks for thoughts above on that fledgling)