Frontier Developments Share Discussion Threads

[nimbo1] 03/5/2018 16:45

this is another interesting feature which has caused a lot of excitement in various forums. you can customise your dinosaurs through gene editing to change their appearance and characteristics.

[mad foetus] 03/5/2018 16:20

Huge execution risk with a high profile game but looks like FDEV have nailed it.

[panic investor] 03/5/2018 16:00

I'm not into gaming but it sounds amazing !

[mad foetus] 03/5/2018 12:16

I think it was the Citi coverage, though I topped up earlier in the week as it had been rangebound and the launch of JWE gets closer by the day. Franchise 4 is also going to be a catalyst for more coverage and directors had been buying at 13.50 not long ago. Something had to give, and having been rangebound for months, if we can break out it should go a long way north.

[staverly] 03/5/2018 12:13

Wondered what had disturbed the share price ping-pong ennui of recent months. With a serious investment bank finally on board this story should soon receive the adulation it surely deserves.
Key Holding

[mark4231] 03/5/2018 11:40

Definitely not showing on the top ten pages of the list with my PC. Strange. Maybe as my PC is on a German IP address even though I'm physically in the UK. Planet Coaster was at number 1 for a while after launch so I fully expect JWE to be there too.

Nice to see the Citigroup target, probably explains today's uptick. Hope it holds.

[nimbo1] 03/5/2018 11:21

Mark its on page 4 now of the global bestsellers list. Obviously it moves around a lot - yesterday it was at 25 at one stage - just pointing out its nice to see it up there sometimes - on release we want to see it on page 1.

Thanks Rivaldo - thats great to see. Imagine Citigroup have larger reader base than fincapp, no disrespect intended.

[rivaldo] 03/5/2018 11:08

Nice - Citigroup today initiate coverage with a Buy and 1540p target:

[mark4231] 03/5/2018 11:08

The problem comparing with Planet Coaster is that Planet Coaster was available in alpha and beta form to the public well before the main launch.

[mark4231] 03/5/2018 11:07

I can't see it on the top 10 pages at the moment. Strange.

I don't think the pre-order bonus is up to much for JWE, a couple of skins isn't particularly tempting.

Will be interesting to see how the pre-orders look once FDEV ramp up the marketing. Since their event a few weeks ago it has been very quiet from them other than the species videos.

[alphabeta4] 03/5/2018 11:04

Guess a good comparison would be where was Planet Coaster at the same point pre release?

[nimbo1] 03/5/2018 10:41

JWE on page 3 of the top sellers list on steam.

the highest its been yet.

hxxps://store.steampowered.com/search/?filter=topsellers&;page=3

[nimbo1] 02/5/2018 10:25

Thanks for that Makw61

[makw61] 02/5/2018 10:25

Hi Nimbo, cash spend will increase as more devs are hired, but there will a timing difference as to when those costs are expensed in the income statement. Also there is some interpretation as to what costs can/should be capitalised and which are just general overheads - some firms are more aggressive than others at capitalising costs, but i don't sense that Frontier are so some of the new hires may hit P&L.

As they get to more franchises it will all tend to even out such that costs capitalised and the amortisation charge may be roughly equal and there is little difference between cash costs and P&L costs.

[makw61] 02/5/2018 10:13

My understanding is that neither revenue nor costs for JWE will be recognised until the game launches. Pre-orders will sit in deferred income within creditors and development costs will be capitalised in intangible assets. Following game release these balances will be released / amortised, which is the matching principle that Melf identifies.

H2 revenue will therefore just be ED and PC, but does include the important Christmas trading period, the Easter sale and the various DLC's.

As we all agree, H2 is pretty irrelevant. Be interesting to hear in due course what pre-orders look like, although i do think consumers are a bit reluctant to buy these days until release. GLA

[nimbo1] 02/5/2018 10:11

good point, one Im not sure on. This suggests at least some costs are going through now.

1H18: an investment period, supported by a solid top-line performance. Set against a comp. that benefitted from a major launch event (Planet Coaster (PC), Nov-16), we think that 5% growth is a credible performance and highlights the resilience of Frontier's multi-franchise model. Group GM reduced by c.500bps to 69% – a function of a higher proportion of sales through distribution partners (e.g. Steam, Sony, Microsoft) and the launch of physical disc sales. Adj. cash opex grew by 11% to £7.2m (higher R&D and S&M) as activities ramped up ahead of Jurassic World’s launch. Amortisation also grew by £0.9m to £2.8m, reflecting a full six-month period of PC amortisation. Considering both factors (GM and opex), Frontier’s adj. EBIT margin fell to 16%, as expected. Cash conversion of 97% led to operating C/F of £5.8m and this funded continued development of new and existing franchises (totalling £5.0m). There was also a large one-off PPE expense (£3.0m) relating to Frontier’s office move. Following Tencent’s strategic investment, net cash remains strong at £29.1m.

[melf] 02/5/2018 10:05

nimbo, re the JWE costs.......I thought that under the accounting matching concept, costs should be matched with the revenue that derives from those costs. So it will be interesting to see if the JWE costs are deferred to next year.

[nimbo1] 02/5/2018 09:33

Regarding the trading update this is the opening paragraph from the fincap broker note after the prelims this year. Expectations are therefore for £12 mil of revenue from H2.

Its all academic really because this year / next year it doesn't matter in the medium term but I assume the pre sales for JWE to the year end will have to be included in this years results however its always been guided no JWE sales will fall into this period. Any comment? Its also worth mentioning all the costs from creating JWE will fall into this years results.

'Interims are in line with January’s trading update, with sales of £19m, of which £18.5m was ‘Self-publishing’ – up 7% y-o-y. Performance was driven by the continued success of both games, particularly Elite Dangerous, which launched on PlayStation 4 in June 2017. Sales also responded well in price promotion events – offered at Thanksgiving and Christmas (the latter being post period-end). Sales have since settled to a lower but healthy run- rate and to reflect this, we lift our full-year estimate by 4% to £31.0m. We continue to anticipate that Jurassic World Evolution will be the catalyst of Frontier's next step-up in financial performance. This game remains on track to launch this summer, but post period-end. Despite lifting FY18E sales, gross and adj. EBIT remain unchanged following a 3% change to our gross margin assumption following the introduction of physical disk sales.'

[mad foetus] 02/5/2018 08:37

Bought back at £13. Increased that holding by 25%, happy days

[mad foetus] 02/5/2018 06:34

I sold out half of my FDEV last Friday for a spectacularly well timed top up in IDP, but I feel underweight here so expect to buy back shortly. Speculation is that there is a new Indiana Jones film due in 2019 and that could be the next franchise. No solid basis for that though.

[hpcg] 02/5/2018 00:11

Let us not forget JWE hits the streets for real ever sooner. Getting in when it does is possibly too late, unless it is a major blockbuster in which case that is not in the price.

[mark4231] 01/5/2018 23:09

I think anyone who understands the company realises that there is currently a lull between releases and the impact that has on sales for now - so no particular reason for a trading update unless things are going worse or better than expected or there is new news to tell.

Watching the position of Planet Coaster and Elite: Dangerous in the Steam Top Sellers it seems to me that they're both continuing to sell OK - although its a gut feeling as it isn't clear how that is worked out or the numbers that can be gleaned from it.

[felix1] 01/5/2018 21:01

In the last two years FDEV have released a trading update in late April. I wonder whether one is likely soon. I don't expect it to be particularly positive in financial terms for the current year, but it may bring news of JWE pre-sales, marketing activity or the next franchise. Otherwise could be a top-up opportunity. Thoughts?

[nimbo1] 01/5/2018 10:59

the game is pre selling v well in germany on PS4 and Xbox for physical copy in July. Has been in the top 10 a few times in the bestsellers list. I think its down to the detailed PC Gamer article there. Hopefully they have some PR up their sleeve for China and the USA!

hxxps://www.amazon.de/Jurassic-World-Evolution-PlayStation-4/dp/B07BYMXJBM/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1524557216&sr=8-1&keywords=jurassic%2Bworld%2Bevolution%2Bps4&dpID=51OdrBvIffL&preST=_SY300_QL70_&dpSrc=srch&th=1