Frontier Developments Share Discussion Threads

[hpcg] 15/1/2018 00:21

22 June is the film release date. Excellent news the game will be out at the same time as that is just around the corner in investing terms.

[adamb1978] 14/1/2018 19:26

Excellent news. So we can expect JWE to be the driving force behind the May-19 financials and then in the May-20 financial year, we'd have a full years contribution from JWE (plus launches on other consoles?) as well as presumably the 4th title being launched.

Think its important as hopefully this year (May-18) will be the last one where there's something of a lull in the growth of the business. On a 12-24 month basis, this could easily double from where it is, and given how much markets have run up, there aren't a lot of companies (excluding oilers and microcaps) where you can feel confident about that

[rivaldo] 14/1/2018 19:01

Hastings, thx re the new article. Intriguing quote from the CEO. So now we know we can expect news of the fourth franchise with the JWE launch - and that this will also be well-known and likely pretty exciting:

"Braben himself.....also talks of beyond the impending release and says that in conjunction with that, Frontier will also be announcing the title of its fourth franchise.

Although giving nothing away on what this may actually be, he does confirm that it will be something that once more strikes a familiar chord with the audience."

[adamb1978] 13/1/2018 12:01

Thanks for that hpcg. And 3m would be their total units shipped, including their other 2 titles so the market forecsts look very low.

Would be great if there were some comments in the upcoming interims about their plans to get to the point where they have 1 launch per year. They alluded to this previously but once they're at that point, FDEV will look very cheap. For example:

- assume 10m games sold per year once they are truly multi-title. Maybe in 2020?
- that makes revenue around £200m p.a.
- 40% ebit margin (in-line with other gaming companies) get you to £68m bottom line
- Puts EPS at 180p, and PE of 8x based on current share price

....and it would be throwing of piles and piles of cash

Adam

[hpcg] 13/1/2018 11:25

Despite the URL here are some figures from 2016

So 3m is as you say not ambitious if the game is a successful.

[adamb1978] 13/1/2018 11:09

Does anyone have any views on number of units which FDEV are likely to shift when JWE is launched next summer?

If you take the guidance in the recent TU on the number of games sold since Dec-14 (4.65m) and make some simplifying assumptions (including taking 50% of FY15 revenue plus FY16 plus FY17 plus H1 '18), it suggests that they're roughly selling 1m games per half year at around £20 a go (£20 being the revenue to them, excl VAT). Ignores other bits and pieces of revenue.

I saw that market forecasts for revenue for the yr to May-19 is £59m, so roughly 3m games sold. That doesn't sound overly ambitious if JWE is decent, and even factoring in that JWE will be launched a month or two into the year.

Any views?

[hastings] 12/1/2018 23:08

Caught up for a chat earlier today, there is a typo or two, my fault a busy day!
May be of interest.

[mad foetus] 12/1/2018 07:48

Liberia reiterate as a buy, no target price:

[allstar4eva] 11/1/2018 14:57

It would if you made no other money in the market;-)

[nimbo1] 11/1/2018 14:40

5% doesn't float my boat

[allstar4eva] 11/1/2018 14:38

Hindsight traders are best ignored imho...

[blondeamon] 11/1/2018 14:12

In and out for a quick 5% yesterday but keeping an eye here for re-entry upon Jurassic good news.

[mark4231] 11/1/2018 12:25

I agree nimbo.

I'm hoping that FDEV reveal the next franchise reasonably soon so we know what to look forward to next year as well.

[nimbo1] 11/1/2018 12:04

people won't be worrying about the results for the past 12 months or next 6 when jurassic evolution starts selling. a blockbuster launch for FDEV given it already has 2 existing franchises providing a steady revenue base will be explosive imo. Then moving to 1 release a year...

[mark4231] 11/1/2018 11:46

Makes me laugh too. At lazy journalists.

Although I don't think a fall was at all warranted yesterday, I'm pleased at the level it has settled at - it is still higher than 10 days ago. At least now when the final results come out some of those who don't understand the company have been shaken out already.

[ashehzi] 11/1/2018 11:25

The Daily Telegraph Thursday, January 11, 2018: Frontier Developments (FDEV) pulled back 65p to £14.25 after its interim figures failed to meet investors’ lofty expectations.

Made me laugh at "failed to meet investors’ lofty expectations". Wasn't me at least.

[staverly] 10/1/2018 18:51

FWIW, £17 TP derived from sector re-rating. The guts of it being x32 FY22 FCF, 8% discount. Liberum TP under review until HY ann.

[alphabeta4] 10/1/2018 14:11

'Risk to the upside' - I.e. as house broker we're going to pretend £11m revenue H2 is a stretch so we can be surprised when the company beats it :)

[ashehzi] 10/1/2018 14:02

Frontier Developments (FDEV) Finncap

Healthy H1 trading update, estimates unchanged

Frontier expects to report sales of c.£19m in 1H18 – modestly ahead of the comparative period (£18.1m), thanks to the continued performance of both games, particularly Elite Dangerous, which launched on PlayStation 4 in June 2017. Sales also responded well in price promotion events – offered at Thanksgiving and Christmas (the latter being post period-end). As per guidance, we leave our full-year sales estimate unchanged, implying 2H18E sales of £10.7m. This compares with £19.3m achieved in 2H17, where trading benefitted from Planet Coaster’s November 2016 launch. Notwithstanding the absence of a similar event in 2H18E, we believe risk to FY18E is to the upside.

Harold Evans

020 7220 0552

[blondeamon] 10/1/2018 13:06

It was an exceptional year last year as they said but they also said they matched it this year so doing a similar H2 (or even a bit less) would still have them meeting current expectations.

Hoping to finish the day blue here tbh, that RNS's title was bonkers.

[alphabeta4] 10/1/2018 12:43

According to Morning Star Full year forecasts as of this morning were £30m for FY18. If £19m has been done H1 that looks pretty undemanding to me - for example in FY16 £21m was done off one game so £10.5m per half and now there's two to achieve the same result and we already know the key Christmas period went well.

[allstar4eva] 10/1/2018 12:42

Thanks Rivaldo. Just goes to show how useless these price targets are. The simple reason for the revision is that the price had moved above their previous target price!

[hastings] 10/1/2018 12:41

FinnCap reiterates pre-tax for this year of £1.3m and EPS of 3.3p.Next year is when the earnings and profit should ramp up. Target is new £17.00.I still hold but confess to having recently taken some off the table.

[nimbo1] 10/1/2018 12:35

the market says thanks for your shares weak holders and fast money : )