Frontier Developments Share Discussion Threads

[staverly] 10/1/2018 18:51

FWIW, £17 TP derived from sector re-rating. The guts of it being x32 FY22 FCF, 8% discount. Liberum TP under review until HY ann.

[alphabeta4] 10/1/2018 14:11

'Risk to the upside' - I.e. as house broker we're going to pretend £11m revenue H2 is a stretch so we can be surprised when the company beats it :)

[ashehzi] 10/1/2018 14:02

Frontier Developments (FDEV) Finncap

Healthy H1 trading update, estimates unchanged

Frontier expects to report sales of c.£19m in 1H18 – modestly ahead of the comparative period (£18.1m), thanks to the continued performance of both games, particularly Elite Dangerous, which launched on PlayStation 4 in June 2017. Sales also responded well in price promotion events – offered at Thanksgiving and Christmas (the latter being post period-end). As per guidance, we leave our full-year sales estimate unchanged, implying 2H18E sales of £10.7m. This compares with £19.3m achieved in 2H17, where trading benefitted from Planet Coaster’s November 2016 launch. Notwithstanding the absence of a similar event in 2H18E, we believe risk to FY18E is to the upside.

Harold Evans

020 7220 0552

[blondeamon] 10/1/2018 13:06

It was an exceptional year last year as they said but they also said they matched it this year so doing a similar H2 (or even a bit less) would still have them meeting current expectations.

Hoping to finish the day blue here tbh, that RNS's title was bonkers.

[alphabeta4] 10/1/2018 12:43

According to Morning Star Full year forecasts as of this morning were £30m for FY18. If £19m has been done H1 that looks pretty undemanding to me - for example in FY16 £21m was done off one game so £10.5m per half and now there's two to achieve the same result and we already know the key Christmas period went well.

[allstar4eva] 10/1/2018 12:42

Thanks Rivaldo. Just goes to show how useless these price targets are. The simple reason for the revision is that the price had moved above their previous target price!

[hastings] 10/1/2018 12:41

FinnCap reiterates pre-tax for this year of £1.3m and EPS of 3.3p.Next year is when the earnings and profit should ramp up. Target is new £17.00.I still hold but confess to having recently taken some off the table.

[nimbo1] 10/1/2018 12:35

the market says thanks for your shares weak holders and fast money : )

[shanklin] 10/1/2018 11:26

Thank you rivaldo

[rivaldo] 10/1/2018 11:22

Shanklin, hopefully later I'll have access to Finncap's note. I suspect they're re-assessed upwards the potential for Jurassic World - or perhaps FDEV have briefed them on the timeline for the pipeline of new games.

[volsung] 10/1/2018 10:51

I was looking for good space games and came across Elite Dangerous as a recommend. Didn't know i was a shareholder in the game. There you go.

[shanklin] 10/1/2018 10:49

Thank you rivaldo.

Do you have any idea on what basis they have upped their price target please?

There did not seem to be any new news in today's update other than that H1 sales have held up very well.

Cheers, Martin

[blondeamon] 10/1/2018 10:49

Looks like it'll be higher than yesterday's close by end of day. I laugh every time someone mentions efficient markets, majority of private investors are like a herd...they spook easily and do irrational things.

[nimbo1] 10/1/2018 10:36

great stuff thanks rivaldo

[rivaldo] 10/1/2018 10:35

Finncap have today increased their price target to 1700p (from 1332p) - a hefty increase:

[ashehzi] 10/1/2018 09:32

Not selling at all as it is small stake for me and in for a long time. No need to sell n buy back today.

[compnews1] 10/1/2018 09:32

The Statement made by FDEV does not sound positive for the H2 result. OK new games coming but that may have been factored in the share price At the end of the day, what profit does it make!. Too expensive share price

[mark4231] 10/1/2018 09:10

The trading update, for me, is better than I expected. There were no new franchise launches in the period but still "the Board expects to report a sustained level of performance compared to the record results achieved for financial year 2017" which is great. I had expected at least a modest fall. Looking forward, Planet Coaster and Elite: Dangerous look like they sold well over Christmas (which is not within the time frame of the 6 months being talked about) and Jurassic World Evolution is still to come in 6 months or so! If I wasn't so heavily invested already in FDEV I would be buying more this morning!

[jgoold] 10/1/2018 09:09

Bounced nicely off the 50 day MA

[adamb1978] 10/1/2018 09:07

Yes, nimbo, agree re fast money.

Anyone getting freaked by the valuation would be advised to remember that at the moment you have lots of cost for JWE in the financials, but none of the revenues.

Agree with Rivaldo that it would be nice to hear about the 4th title at the time of the results, or an ad-hoc announcement in between

[volsung] 10/1/2018 09:03

Looks like a nice dip to top up

[p1nkfish] 10/1/2018 09:01

Careful where stops are placed in case on some shaking.

[jgoold] 10/1/2018 08:51

Sold half my holding last week and very happy to keep the other half through the launch of JWE. Volume already 2x the recent average.

[nimbo1] 10/1/2018 08:35

The fall is more to do with spooked fast money than it is anything else imo. There a lot of high expectations and frothy prices about so not surprising. people unless irrational Cant have been expecting anything other than flat results given no game launches. Reckon we could see the directors buy a few more.

[rivaldo] 10/1/2018 08:20

Agree with prior posts - the overriding point is that JWE is progressing smoothly and on time. It's reassuring that PC and ED continue to sell well, but no-one should really have been expecting anything else from the update.

It'll be good to hear first details of the other games in the pipeline at some stage, perhaps in he next results narrative.