Frontier Developments Share Discussion Threads

[hpcg] 30/9/2018 19:33

With Musk having half the number of jobs now as compared with last week that should free up some cycles for gaming.

[mad foetus] 30/9/2018 18:43

Elon musk is tweeting about how good the original elite was and DB has told him to get up to date

[discodave4] 29/9/2018 20:32

allstar,"How many of us here have held any share for more than 3 years continuously without selling any?"I for one buy and hold, rarely day trade. Some shares I've held 6 years and still hold, not sold any and won't unless the story changes.Each to their own, see no problem with day trading and as you said, if you don't want to have volatility then don't buy illiquid stock.DD

[endion] 29/9/2018 18:25

I suppose its a sort of chicken and egg type situation. At times you could argue that the day traders create the spikes and falls, and equally on others that they limit them by their trades. Which is leading which though would be almost impossible to discern. Interesting none the less.

[dsct] 29/9/2018 18:06

Ooops ! Sorry ! I didn't intend to start a fight ! lol

I prefer reading all viewpoints, even those shorting, as long as they're valid/true arguments - means I get an alternative perspective to my rose-tinted glasses view :o)

@allstar4eva - Thanks for the link, but wanted to download the entire days trades in one go. I used ADVFN trade data, and as this was only a one-off exercise, manually copied/pasted the data.

With regards to the day-traders being negative, an alternative view is that they reduce the volatility - buying when price drops and selling when price rises.

It could also be a way for someone to build up a long-term holding - a simple example (excluding costs):
Buying 400 @ 12.50
Selling 370 @ 13.50
Repeating daily and building up a 150 share holding over a week - If only it was that easy !

Anyway, I've now analysed this previous weeks trade data. For this example, I've used a +/-50p movement from the day opening mid-price and also assumed a sell at close so purely a within-a-day-trade.

24/09 - No buy
25/09 - Buy @ 1280p (10:45) - Sell @ 1385p (16:08)
26/09 - Buy @ 1335p (10:17) - Sell @ 1360p (close)
27/09 - Buy @ 1305p (09:57) - sell @ 1370p (close)
28/09 - No buy

After all that, I'm not sure it's for me, as I don't have the time/funds to monitor or play with this scenario ... but may change my mind ! lol

I could move the +/-50p figure and then it may be more feasible.

[allstar4eva] 29/9/2018 14:04

There is no argument here. Trading, day trading, short term trading means nothing. Investors mostly do not need to watch the share price on a daily basis so minute by minute, day to day, week to week and even month to month fluctuations mean nothing to them as they have a time frame in terms of years - not days, weeks or months.

I mentioned that due to the extreme volatility I executed a couple of day trades for fun. In response to that someone asked where to get trades data and I sent them a link. In no way has day trading been discussed at length or advocated in any way. However day trading or otherwise is of no consequence to the long term direction of the share price and is absolutely fine by me. Illiquid shares experience volatility so to suggest that volatility (whilst unpleasant at times) should be avoided is ridiculous as it is the nature of the beast. If someone doesn't want any volatility at all then they should leave illiquid shares alone.

On ADVFN the vast majority of us are traders - the slightest whiff of bad news and we are off. We watch the daily price movements and news like hawks - we actually create a lot of the volatility as institutions are much less active as they cannot be as agile with their larger holdings. How many of us here have held any share for more than 3 years continuously without selling any?

I actually think FDEV is a potentially a fantastic long term hold and believe we are still only at the beginning. I am happy to hold for years due to the recurring revenue nature of the business model - it doesn't mean that I or any other long term holders should not trade their position alongside their main holdings or discuss it here - to each their own. It also doesn't mean that there aren't very real risks in terms of the success/failure of each new franchise.

[endion] 29/9/2018 13:03

Thank you to both allstar and largemerlot for your comments, though against eachother you are still somehow both defending my posts :p

My fascination with trading patterns comes from my interest in chaos theory, rather than a desire to trade the share. In that respect I must admit that I am in agreement with merlot in that I believe day trading, as in buying and selling on the same day or next, can increase volatility and hurt investor confidence. However, this is a public forum and no-one is able to tell another how they should or shouldnt trade. We can disagree with it, thats fair enough, but unfortunately we cannot stop it. Its not illegal and unltimately, as you yourself said merlot, the fundamentals will win out. Whilst it may be frustrating to ride this up and down 5 - 8% a day, it will only last so long. H1 figures are when i believe the market will sit up a little more, we should also know the 4th IP by then, possibly with greater clarity as to the scale of expansion expected at Frontier.

[martywidget] 29/9/2018 10:45

[edit] dsct, maybe also look at {any} short positions reported here - none at present {updated daily}:

[discodave4] 29/9/2018 09:43

Just compared the share price range for a randomly selected company (from my watch list) with similar market cap (XPP), the share price variation (intraday high low) yesterday was 5%, FDEV's was 6%.

[allstar4eva] 29/9/2018 09:38

Endion posts regularly on trades and associated data. Are you suggesting that he should stop doing this?

[discodave4] 29/9/2018 09:33

The free float here is only 19m shares , for a £500m mkcap company.........it's very illiquid!. Agree day trading makes the volatility worse but to make out it will ruin the company or that their business model has to adapt to share price movements is complete tosh IMO (no offence).One minute you say fundamentals will out, then day trading will ruin it for everyone, confused!.DD

[largemerlot] 29/9/2018 06:58

Obviously touched a nerve here. ‘Calm down dear’ as the late Michael Winner used to say. Taking the ‘ day traders are good for liquidity’ tack is quite frankly delusional.

FD is a great example of a company with strong competitive advantage in a growing industry and will continue to deliver long term shareholder return.By compounding volatility and focussing on the short term you run the risk of company managements basing decisions and allocating capital in this way. Companies strive,especially the team at FD,to make optimal long term decisions developing long term value. All I’m saying is that by focussing on the short term,being a trader of paper and not an investor and not having interests that are aligned with management could ruin it for everyone.

[allstar4eva] 28/9/2018 20:55

What do you think would happen if there were no traders? How would you buy or sell shares? Who would you buy from or sell to? In particular buying shares. If everyone was a long term holder and held shares forever it would be impossible to buy any shares!
Traders provide much needed liquidity and people are completely free to buy and sell as little or as often as they desire and they are also free discuss those trades on this a public bb. There has been extreme volatilty here which is why the topic even came up.

BTW Perhaps you would like to share your own pearls of wisdom? Have you even made a useful contribution? Do you have any research that you would like to share or do you simply take research performed by strangers on an anonymous bb as gospel?

P.S. No offence intended to any of the good posters here.

[endion] 28/9/2018 17:21

There were a few fairly large trades dotted throughout the day today. A 15k buy appeared from yesterday, though at the time it had no effect on share price Likewise today there were three large sells 40k, 15k and 25k, within two mintutes of eachother, with very little effect on share price Having seen how quickly the mm's move this on little volume, im confused as to why these trades had almost zero effect.

The large surge up to £14 came soon after the delayed 15k was reported. Could be that some saw it as a bullish sign and so increased buying pressure, or maybe the mm's thought they could raise it for a very short term spike after it had been reported, hoping to entice some selling at higher prices.

[allstar4eva] 28/9/2018 13:04

Hi dsct

Re: other sources of trades data I don't use it but does this help?




I only traded a couple of times and even managed to make a small profit using IG even with their spreads! my thinking was that we were in a short term up trend so any swing down of 70-100 points would be a good entry point for an immediate recovery. Just pin money for a bit of fun - nothing too serious.

[dsct] 28/9/2018 09:59

@allstar4eva #3647.

I thought along these lines the day before your post. I've been amazed at the volatility - like a yoyo between red and blue throughout the day ! Lol

I need to work out the figures properly, taking into account trading costs and the 1.5% spread on both buying and selling, but initial thoughts are to take the opening price, and have a +/-% from that, and put in a buy-limit and sell-limit order for if either, both or neither of those get hit.

I've been trying to find somehere to download all daily trades data (for free), to enable me to look at the movement during each of the days this past week - any ideas ? I can do from advfn, but only a page of trades at a time.

[runthejoules] 27/9/2018 13:47

Thought it'd be safe to put a stop loss at 1282! Ha!

Luckily it was 50p a point & my Isas are still intact!

[allstar4eva] 27/9/2018 10:32

Mad it has been far worse than today. I had a cheeky day trade the other day. Swings of 100 points have not been uncommon.

[mad foetus] 27/9/2018 10:17

Even by the normal FDEV shenanigans, today has been pretty remarkable. Can the MMs not even try to make an orderly market?

[sogoesit] 26/9/2018 13:07

Nice link, Shanklin. Thanks.
I guess Jeff doesn't work for free 'tho... let's hope for good value in marketing.

EDIT:
I think 1500 is the marker, Mark. That is coincidentally the base of the uptrend channel going back to about 27/10/17 and the neckline of a large Head&Shoulders. Strength into 1500 would be a great sign of for future gains since and H&S pattern is a continuation one and, to the upside, usually heads for the height of the neckline to the top of the head for additional gains. My guesstimate would be 2100/2250 if so for near term gains.

[mark4231] 26/9/2018 13:04

I wish this would burst through £14 and stay there, no doubt it will in due course. Never thought I would be saying that so soon after the events of 3 weeks ago... :-)

[endion] 24/9/2018 09:22

Glad to see some value finally returning to the share price. This is just the beginning of the climb back up. Cant wait for H1 results to find out how many units they sold of JWE in the first half of the year!