Foxtons Share Discussion Threads

[jotoha2] 14/11/2017 15:05

London house sales to fall by another 12% within 6 months , and that is official , will hurt this old style business model.

[nortic 007] 14/11/2017 14:51

Hope you're behaving?

[dt1010] 14/11/2017 14:35

So much for your fabled rally Nortic.

Your boyz a bit of a contra indicator it turns out....

This dead cat bounced 'tis all, chap.

[nortic 007] 13/11/2017 17:38

Good evening stranger

[dt1010] 13/11/2017 17:12

Making loads huh...sounds doubtful ;)

[ny boy] 13/11/2017 13:19

Looking to add @ 65p support, if the market permits, looking forward to the Autumn statement.

Making loads elsewhere to cover a small loss here but not in the trade for the short term, 92p would be a price I would consider selling.

[larva] 10/11/2017 12:17

50p next rungggggg

[nortic 007] 10/11/2017 12:04

Hello stranger

[dt1010] 10/11/2017 11:12

Am glad I sold at 78.5 !!! :)))

[nortic 007] 10/11/2017 07:38

All relative I guessCWD (Numis) The Q3 update shows that the yoy revenue decline in Q3 was 7%, in-line with theyoy decline in Q2. However, we think this suggests that the group continues to losemarket share . Management state that cashflow has been in-line with expectationsin Q3, but no net-debt figure has been given and therefore we still hold concernsabout Countrywide's headroom versus covenants, particularly given the impendingban on tenant fees. On this basis we reduce our target price to 130p which equatesto a PE of 8x for 2017, but maintain our Hold rating.?The group reports that revenue in Q3 is down 7% yoy, although this was 2% higher thanQ2. Management states that the final quarter of the year will be important for the full-year out-turn, but at present they expect results to be at the lower end of expectations(i.e. £74m EBITDA). However, to reflect continuing uncertainty in the second handmarket, and our perception that Countrywide is underperforming the market (partly dueto branch closures and past cost cutting), we reduce our full-year EBITDA to £70m(from £75.8m) which would imply H2 EBITDA down 8% yoy, following the 26% fall inH1. Based on our expectation that revenue will decline 7% yoy in Q4 (in line with Q2/Q3) it implies that full-year costs will have to reduce £70m yoy (implying a 7% costreduction) form our estimates to be met.?Regarding the business mix in Q3, Estate Agency revenue was down 16% to £47.8m,Lettings revenue was down 3.5% to £47.3m, Financial Services revenue was down4% and B2B revenue (mainly consisting of commercial, surveying and conveyancing)increased 1%. Management states that operating costs are down 7% ytd, with the£19m of 2017 cost programmes delivered, and the group is looking to achieve at leastas much again in 2018 and beyond.?In our view this statement highlights the difficult trading backdrop in the second handhousing market, but also that company specific problems which are causing marketunder-performance . We now expect year-end net debt of £188m, but based on ournew EBITDA estimates this puts Countrywide on a net debt / EBITDA ratio of 2.7xfor 2017E (covenants 3.5x). However, with the prospect of the tenant fee ban in 2018(which could hit profits by c.£20m - and is not yet in forecasts) it feels as if Countrywidecould need to raise new equity to prevent covenants becoming an issue.For FCA purposes this marketing communication has not been prepared in accordancewith legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment researchand is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of suchresearch. Important disclosures are on pages 2 to 3 relating to Numis Securities Limited,analyst certification, other requirements which restrict dealing ahead, relevantinvestment banking relationships, potential conflicts of interest and additionaldisclosures

[andy] 09/11/2017 09:30

blueteam,

But the "budget news" is already in the price!

And it won;t effect first time buyers much outside London and the SE, because they can already buy without paying stamp duty!

It will have minimal effect, IMO, affordability is the key and with falling prices sensible buyers may well decide to postpone their purchase and save even more.

[blueteam] 09/11/2017 09:27

bid rumor i see on other site, will see volume first. Would not want to be on the short side with this and budget house news 'give away' this month.

[bookbroker] 09/11/2017 08:34

So, they are more vulnerable than FOXT as a result of growth in PURP and all the regional brokers competing, FOXT may be more secure due to its strong London prescence, London always be the largest market,wit or without Brexit!

[nortic 007] 09/11/2017 07:56

Market call Countrywide 3% - 5% down at the open.

[nortic 007] 09/11/2017 07:48

FYINumis: COUNTRYWIDE (U/R) TRADING UPDATE. The group reports that revenue in Q3 is down 7% yoy, although this was 2% higher than Q2. Management states that the final quarter of the year is important but at present they expect full year results to be at the lower end of expectations. Within Estate Agency, Q3 revenue fell from £57m to £47.8m. Countrywide state that the digital offering has now been rolled out across 50% of its network and generally delivers a net benefit in market share (although we think that will be overshadowed by lower fees) - the group is evaluating it's digital offering before rolling it out to the rest of the network. In London Estate Agency revenue fell by 23%. Lettings revenue was marginally down (£47.3m vs £49m, with London flat and the regions down slightly. Financial Services revenue declined 4% yoy in Q3 - with the group attributing this decline to a change in mix. B2B showed 1% revenue growth with a strong performance in Surveying. The group states that operating costs are down 7% ytd with £19m of cost programmes delivered with the group looking to achieve at least as much again. The group states that operating cashflows in Q3 were in line with the boards expectations - although no net debt figure is given. Overall this is a messy statement with most aspects of the business declining and little detail on the state of the balance sheet which remains the most important consideration at present. It appears that Countrywide is still losing market share and that profits for this year will be short of expectations despite material cost cutting. Remains one to avoid.

[nortic 007] 09/11/2017 07:05

Trading update in Countrywide this morning.

[andy] 08/11/2017 22:58

nortic,

Go ahead and arrange it, let's see who turns up...

[opodio] 08/11/2017 20:25

Load of empty offices with massive rents

Lots of highly paid nags in head Office

Lots of offices to support

Nothing to want to get excited with

[opodio] 08/11/2017 19:02

1-0 to the egregore. Back of ye olde net!

[nortic 007] 08/11/2017 18:37

P.sNoticed Countywide going well but slightly disappointed about Foxtons at the moment.