Fox Marble Share Discussion Threads

[czar] 03/1/2018 07:42

This little company is going to fly now. They have raised £3.7m at 10.5p, somebody can smell the potential here and NB £2m is coming from a customer who has taken exclusive distribution for GCC (subject to minimum orders being achieved). Production is going to be ramped up, profits and dividends will flow. Last chance to get on board at 11p imho.

[dozey3] 03/1/2018 07:21

Can’t make up my mind if this is good or bad news. Partly depends whether the company actually gets cash or if smoke and polished marble mirrors are involved.

[janeann] 03/1/2018 07:09

well they are now .......... 1.8m euros worth over 3 years

Fox Marble, (AIM:FOX) the AIM listed company focused on marble quarrying and finishing in Kosovo and the Balkans region, is pleased to announce that it has signed a three-year sales agreement (the "Agreement") with Mr Shailesh Patil. Subject to achieving a minimum commitment of 3,000 tonnes per annum, the agreement confers upon Mr Patil exclusivity as Fox Marble's distributor for GCC nations, comprising Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait and the UAE. The minimum commitment under the Agreement equates to approximately EUR600,000 to EUR800,000 per annum.

[andy] 21/12/2017 09:03

rj,

Ok thanks.

They have sold considerable amounts in raw blocks, that was what I meant. They have also sold processed marble cut and polished in Italy by a third party, that was what I meant by the quality and price already been known.


One of my main issues is the fact that they are not selling higher margin processed blocks in size, as you rightly point out. In the original 2012 presentation, CG said this was where the real money is made.


You could view it in London at a company called Pisani, but I think that has gone now. They were a wholesaler of marble, and based in S. London.

[rjmahan] 21/12/2017 00:23

"You are way off here, they have been selling marble for a couple of years at least, you are clearly not familiar or up to date with the story, I suggest you look at their website and go through the presentation!"

I am pretty up to date....

They havent been selling in scale or finished product, as the two RNS's I point out indicate...

It depends I suppose on your definition of selling - yes selling some but not in scale, not a 'polished' operation....

I dont meen to be inflamatory....

[andy] 20/12/2017 23:50

rjmahan20 Dec '17 - 23:36 - 302 of 302Moderate | Ban
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Andy, that's just misleading - sales take time I know they have extracted marble... I read the RNS's its still early

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That's a serious allegation, would you be so kind as to point out what exactly I have posted that is "misleading"?

[rjmahan] 20/12/2017 23:36

Andy, that's just misleading - sales take time I know they have extracted marble... I read the RNS's its still early days. Still producing polished marble (where the money is) happened relatively recently...



First polished marble - 25/10/2017


struggling to extract, opening new benches, 21/1/2016

I am prepared to give them the benefit of the doubt - you are not. I can see your POV, this is a small portfolio weight for me - hoping for a multi bag return - I might be wrong, it could be an outright fraud. On balance I am prepared to take the chance...

Curious as to why you would spend so much time on a stock you don't own !

[discusser] 20/12/2017 10:52

Fusspot stuff; Boys Noise

[andy] 20/12/2017 10:08

Exbroker,


You know as well as I do, (or you should) that the ONLY numbers that count, come from the company in an official news release or presentation.


Everything else is just conjecture, only numbers officially published by the company count.


If the company are the source of the Beaufort numbers, why won't the company officially release them to the market? And surely they should do?

[andy] 20/12/2017 09:12

rjmahan18 Dec '17 - 21:40 - 297 of 298Moderate | Ban
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Andy,
How can they get sales without proven capability to produce marble ?

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Very strange comment, they have already proved they can extract the marble, and stated they have blocks at surface. I'm not sure you know the story as well as you should.


"How can they know the price they will get without extracting the stuff? "

Err, again I'm not sure you know the story here, they HAVE "extracted the stuff",and lots of it, and they do know the quality, as it was for sale here in London.

And that marble for sale in London was already priced by the wholesaler, so FOX must know the price they can sell for because they've already done it!



"So as they don't really know what they will get for it - they can have a stab but they dont know."

You are way off here, they have been selling marble for a couple of years at least, you are clearly not familiar or up to date with the story, I suggest you look at their website and go through the presentation!


I'm sure CG would not be flattered by your comments!

[exbroker] 19/12/2017 12:38

Andy
You are desperate for numbers and, yet you won’t look at the Beaufort note, dismissing it out of hand. Look at it and under lots of the data boxes it says source Fox Marble.
These should give more information, so you can criticize and hate the company from a position of knowledge not ignorance!

[rjmahan] 18/12/2017 21:40

Andy,
How can they get sales without proven capability to produce marble ? Buyers are likely to be very nervous... They can't have info on quantity of sales on a spreadsheet.

How can they know the price they will get without extracting the stuff? This isnt gold or another commodity - price varies significantly depending on exactly what they pull out and how well / if its processed.

So as they don't really know what they will get for it - they can have a stab but they dont know. All they have then is costs - which they will have a better feel for, but it doesnt make an attractive presentation....

[discusser] 18/12/2017 17:49

Andy’s point is of course a good one. Once you have production and sales, margins count. Margins here are likely to be good, as labour is cheaper than the competition, and the (mainly if not entirely private) competition is said to be not contemplating big cost reductions. For 2018 Q1&2 the games seems to be to translate interest and preliminary sales into volume throughout. Only in Q3 or thereabouts will we really know if our speculation has been successful or not. Strategy = to wait until then. Hope = my attitude towards the results! Only my opinion. DYOR - if you do that sort of thing ...

[andy] 18/12/2017 17:32

rj,

"I am sure management have some clue - but they dont KNOW it"


And you still want to invest? I would expect them to know it have all the variables on quantity of sales on a spreadsheet.



"OK then if its so important - why not just put it in some presentation / analysis ? Guys like you who rely on that sort of things will be happy."

Exactly I would! Sadly this information has never been made available in the 5 years the company has been active!

It's not rocket science, you are suggesting they haven't a clue and are running the company by sticking their fingers in the air for metrics such as costs, well I don't believe that. And if they are using fingers in the air, why would you invest?



Mining is simple, you find a resource, dig it up, process it, and move it to where it is needed. Simple.

The important bit is whether you can make any money doing this, and if so, what your margins are.

It's not the size of the resource that's important, it's whether you can make money out of mining it!

[rjmahan] 18/12/2017 17:15

On hope as an investment strategy - lots of things need a leap.

I am sure management have some clue - but they dont KNOW it, it isnt an established fact. Its an estimate - reality may vary wildly. The subset of things anyone truely knows is very very limited.

OK then if its so important - why not just put it in some presentation / analysis ? Guys like you who rely on that sort of things will be happy.

I will look, shrug and say meh - not entirely believing them - too many drivers, too subject to variation - but believing the size of the resource - something much more tangible....

I guess you wouldn't take punts on things like bitcoin too - as you can't know its value - but you miss opportunity by not taking at least some leaps of imagination. Investment books would guide away from things like that - but there is money to be made - albeit at very high risk....

[andy] 18/12/2017 12:33

rj,

wow there's some quotes there you won't find in any investment manuals!


to my comment "hope" is not an investment strategy!"

You replied


"yes it is"


err, no it is't actually, find me one serious book on investment that states it is, just one.




"Management with a decent stake - enough for me."

Out of interest, what price did management pay for their stake?



"If you need to know marginal cost of extraction / profit per block you can never invest at an early stage"


What? Are you serious?



"its just unknowable"


Really? So you're saying management don;t have a clue about their costs of mining/extraction, is that correct?



"and even if you know, likely to fall substantially when the company scales up."

You seem to have shifted position here, from being "unknowable" to "even if you know", so is it "unknowable", or not?



Clearly costs fall as it scales up, as fixed costs remain fixed, but they know their orderbook so they should be able to make a decent fist out of predicting costs and margins, and if orders pour in they can adjust accordingly, a spreadsheet is all that is needed.


Why is it that mining companies put the figure AISC in their presentations?

[discusser] 18/12/2017 10:26

Investment = buy an existing asset
Speculation = bet on future behaviour, presumably after looking at form and factors

My take is that Fox has moved most of the way but not all from speculation toward investment.

There will still risks associated with the investment: management, political, market, and so on.

[rjmahan] 18/12/2017 10:13

Yes it is - you can't know everything on a startup - there has to be an element of hope - logic behind it - cheap country to operate in but close to markets, good marble reserve. Management with a decent stake - enough for me.

If you need to know marginal cost of extraction / profit per block you can never invest at an early stage - its just unknowable - and even if you know, likely to fall substantially when the company scales up.

[andy] 16/12/2017 16:36

rj,


"hope" is not an investment strategy!

[rjmahan] 16/12/2017 14:59

Look at asset base and hope for the rest....

[andy] 15/12/2017 21:48

rj,


"You dont need to know cost base or sale price"

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So how to you make an investment decision without the key data?

[rjmahan] 15/12/2017 11:36

This is a startup doing technically difficult things.

Different rules apply.

You dont need to know cost base or sale price - if you know value of an asset base that can get you a good way to a valuation.

I admit I dont like order discrepancies. Cheap enough to take a punt here.

[pugugly] 12/12/2017 07:27

wolstencroft:> Very fair comment - Should be engraved at the head of every thread - We both have seen too many bubbles and subsequent falling knives !!
Positive cash flow at the bottom line is one of the key criteria and not there yet nor possibly in the next year or so UNLESS processed sales can be ramped up- See latest brokers note.

[wolstencroft] 12/12/2017 07:22

"Andy is making all the classic private investor mistakes"

LOL!

We ALL know here that the classic PI mistakes include

1. Believing directors

2. Not doing proper due diligence

3. Not valuing a company on financial fundamentals including debt

4. Looking at dreams / promises / orders rather than actual cash sales

5. Not being able to value a company because you cannot access their cost base or sale price but investing anyway

6. Reading ""research"" reports, especially from the smaller houses or those which the company paid to write.

7. Ignoring red flags, such as orders that do not transpire from companies set up days previously by bar managers which go dormant, or believing the company's statements which are contrary to its customers' financial statements

8. Believing Tom W

9. Believing anyone on a BB

10. Ignoring profits or sales warnings

11. Believing that promises are simply delayed rather than failed

[hector108] 11/12/2017 17:52

For devotees of the dark art of technical analysis or 'charting', the Fox price is at a critical point. Should it move through the present level on reasonable volume, then 16.5p should be easily attainable.

In any event, the recent Beaufort write up and quite remarkable unsecured loan (especially given the relatively small shareholding of the director involved) both add substantial credibility to the strong buy case.

Keep an eye on the chart!!