Fox Marble Share Discussion Threads

[exbroker] 08/12/2017 12:06

Andy
You are such a clever man you have seen through me I am realy Chris Gilbert and this is a giant Ponzi scheme.

[andy] 08/12/2017 11:44

Rj,

Good post, and I agree.


It's the obfuscation here that annoys me, this is the only company I have ever known that announces an "order", but it is not actually a sale!


And some of the "orders" never seem to come to much, Banyan, Eboracum etc. etc.


I recently passed through York station and they have Eboracum Security guards on the platform there! I wonder if Scott runs the company?

[andy] 08/12/2017 11:40

Exbroker,


I notice you don't answer my question about broker notes being "marketing tools", which, if you really are an ex broker, you will know is true!


Of course the notes are run past the company, which is where the bias occurs!


You can calculate the margin, by using current orders and using the fixed costs, then if a new order arrives, adjust for that order. It's not rocket science.


And yes, let's be blunt, you come on here claiming to be close to the company, have visited the site etc. yet when the hard questions are asked you either fail to answer or disappear.

You have set yourself up as the FOX expert, so therefore it's surely reasonable for you to answer lucid questions, then perhas I would perhaps give you less of a hard time!


Your never see anything negative about FOX, again another red flag for me, you seem to be the promoter here, rather than an ex broker.

[rjmahan] 08/12/2017 08:56

Sell side notes generally have some value, why else would buy side pay for them? This co is hard to look at. She’ll cos and dodgy orders but probably some real assets too...

[exbroker] 08/12/2017 08:54

Andy
As I am an exbroker I also know that the notes are run past the company to correct any howlers, its not for the company to check every tiny detail that’s the analyst’s skill to get as close to the eventual result as possible. Given the high fixed cost and low variable cost of extracting blocks Fox is highly operationally geared therefore it is hard to forecast margins as a small change in extracted volumes, product mix, or processed sales could alter the numbers.
Also let’s be blunt do you honestly think that even if I knew what the margins are going to be I would share it with some random who seems to want to give me a hard time on a board, get real!!
As to being an exbroker what do the other contributors to this board think, am I or am I not, and is anyone interested if I contribute or not?

[andy] 08/12/2017 08:29

Ex broker,

"they estimate that it cost 90 euros to extract a block and it sells for 180 euros,"


Estimate??? Don't they know?


My point was that if you really are an ex broker, you must realise that broker notes are marketing tools to generate buying, and commissions for the broker concerned!

There is, therefore, a bias in that the note has to be written to excite the client enough for him to want to trade!


You must know that if you really are an ex broker!

[exbroker] 08/12/2017 08:24

Pug
You may be right but its still a 100% margin.

[pugugly] 08/12/2017 08:05

Exbroker - I think you will find those are prices per tonne and not per block. Also for 2017 estimate 95% of sales in blocks - Though need to read the Beaufort note in detail - Especially page 9 funding -

[exbroker] 08/12/2017 00:08

Andy
Look at page 10 of the Beaufort note, in the numbers for 2017 they estimate that it cost 90 euros to extract a block and it sells for 180 euros, that the sort of low margin I like.
How long ago was that presentation, 3 years or 4?
If you doubt that I am an exbroker check some of my other posts on various takeover situations for the technical content. As an analyst you can’t prostitute yourself too much or your research will be ignored by your target audience and you won’t have a job!

[andy] 07/12/2017 22:41

Exbroker,


We both know such notes are written to stimulate trading, and are always on the optimistic side, don't we? If you don't know that you are clearly not an ex-broker at all, because everyone knows how broker 'notes' work.


I know someone who works for another entity, (Not Beaufort) who had to spend a weekend reworking his figures because a client wanted a higher valuation!


It's funny you can never answer the question about margins when I ask it, yet you always dispute it when I say raw blocks are "low margin"! If you don't know the margins, how can you make an authoritative statement that margins are not "low"?


I'm actually repeating CG's words from his original presentation.......

[czar] 07/12/2017 10:59

This thread is weird, a few people seem to want to put negative spin on everything. The recent note was extremely comprehensive and answered any questions on margins etc. The 24p fair value is well reasined and if anything looks a bit low. The best reason for taking a director loan at very low interest is because it is far better than the dilution of issuing stock around this level. If this company came to market today it would ipo at 3x this price imho. Andy I assume you are short and just want to find negatives in everything? The one thing missing on the recent note was Stone Alliance, it may be a few years away but Fox's stake could well be worth many time the current market cap.

[exbroker] 07/12/2017 09:02

Andy
I am sure the analyst at Beaufort took considerable time and effort to produce his research on Fox, it seemed detailed to me.
I go by what the RNS said and what was in the interims.
From today
These funds will be used to purchase additional equipment in order to accommodate the increasing demand for the Company's marble products.
If you have excess stock, you don’t need to buy extra equipment to quarry even more excess stock.
As I have said before and can be seen from the Beaufort note blocks are lower margin not low margin, there is import duty on slabs to India, so all processing is done in the country.
Time will tell which of us is correct.

[andy] 07/12/2017 08:33

exbroker,


Beaufort might be ever so slightly biased don't you think?


And you're the first person to suggest they are selling so much marble they can't cope! :-)


My perception is the opposite!


They said from their early days that cut and polished is where the real profits are made, not in selling raw blocks that are low margin!


Thus far they have been proved right, they are principally selling raw blocks and they are losing money.

[exbroker] 07/12/2017 08:28

Pug
I think that if you sell enough blocks then you can be profitable, look at the Beaufort note.
The bit I like is this.
"This facility, which falls outside our normal operating budget, will allow us to provide the quarries with additional essential equipment and it will give us the ability to increase production substantially, in order to meet the current and growing, global demand for our material."
It looks like they have more demand than they can cope with given the equipment they have now which is good news. I guess this is the sort of stuff that you can’t buy at Homebase or B&Q, and therefore must have a lead time hence getting the cash now, so the equipment is there for when they resume quarrying in March.
From the Fox website this is what it says about Roy Harrison OBE
Non-Executive Director,
A former Chief Executive of Tarmac Plc, Roy completed the sale of Tarmac to the Anglo American Mining Group in 2000. He is currently the Chairman of Renew Holdings Plc, following the corporate rescue of the Montpelier Group in 2004 and also acts as a consultant to Arriven, a private partnership, advising and investing in the UK building materials sector. Previously, he was a Senior Independent Director of the BSS Group Plc.
Given the above he should know something about the industry and how the company is doing.

[phowdo] 07/12/2017 08:03

The NED must be confident.
It does say the loan is unsecured in the RNS.

[andy] 07/12/2017 08:01

rj,


How do you know know he doesn't have security against the loan on company assets?


The whole point of being listed on AIM is to raise capital through equity, a director loan looks a bit odd to me.

[rjmahan] 07/12/2017 07:58

If they did and failed why would a director (likely) waste 500k?

[andy] 07/12/2017 07:56

pug,


Looks like they are running low on funds again, and interesting they didn't try the more obvious route and raise more equity!


Or did they, and failed?

[pugugly] 07/12/2017 07:49

£500K director loan to the company at 5% - Interesting - but still need traction in cut and polished stone rather than lower margin block before becoming EBIT profitable (imo)

[kaos3] 29/11/2017 20:50

lolol they are probably shipping company for bondsteel base. lololol

how stupid the business model of shipping uncut stones arounnd the world is?

and weather. as a factor at this moment lolololololo

[pugugly] 29/11/2017 15:35

gnnmartin:> Thanks - Has moved the price but some selling - Stale bulls or short term traders who bought lower down ??

[gnnmartin] 29/11/2017 14:00

Beaufort Securities, at

[pugugly] 29/11/2017 11:28

Buying action today Lots of small PI purchases suggests tipped somewhere - Anyone able to advise ?