Fox Marble Share Discussion Threads

[haroldthegreat] 27/4/2017 12:59

We will just have to wait and see the next set of figures.

[discusser] 27/4/2017 11:27

Re "this figure is never quoted", see
hxxp://www.shareprophets.com/views/28259/video-chris-gilbert-ceo-of-fox-marble-speaks-at-uk-investor-show-2017
where about 16 minutes in, Chris Gilbert quotes figures as follows:
about 120 euros/m3 to extract
plus about 10 euros/m2 to cut and polish,

getting 12 m2 per tonne
or 36 m2 per m3.

He is open about the fact that the factory has been delayed, but all equipment is there and paid for and a few days left to complete commissioning. I expect that after that there will be early teething troubles with training and so on.

Kosovo labour rates are very low, so up until now any polishing, being done by others, will have been more expensive - but will have been worth it to get some really prestigious installations out there.
When I was in the toy trade I recall no-one bought anything from any company until it had established itself for a few years.

A slow start but all to play for is my view. Obviously there are risks.

[andy] 27/4/2017 09:25

harold,

Exactly, Euro45,000, but what's the profit margin?

Unless it is jumping out of the ground by itself, there must be a cost involved, but this figure is never quoted, even by those that claim to be close to the company.

So it's fine to quote a headline sales figure, but without knowing the costs involved, how can anyone make an informed judgment of its value to Fox?

In CG's first ever presentation he stated that the big bucks were in selling cut and polished marble, and that's why they were pushing to complete the factory. That was in 2012!

Years later and they are still selling blocks, rather than cut and polished.

I wonder why?

[discusser] 27/4/2017 09:24

It will not have been made at a loss. From Chris Gilbert's presentation at the UK Investor show, the ratio of sale price to production cost of those blocks could be somewhere around between 2 and 5. I suggest that the real situation is that sales are beginning to emerge, the factory and equipment is fully in place and paid for and the Kosovo government are fully behind Chris and his company, prestigious installations have set the scene, and this looks like a ground floor opportunity.
If the Turkish company polish slabs and installations of those follow, they too will be advertising the possibility you can get if you are (for example) a London company and want to buy polished slabs from Fox.
Patience is a virtue.

[haroldthegreat] 27/4/2017 00:54

Andy at least it is a sale with cash in The bank. You just have to hope it wasn't made at a loss !..

[haroldthegreat] 27/4/2017 00:51

So we have been paid approx e45k. We just have to hope they come back for more and the full order gets converted into sales. I would like to see the share price get back to what I paid for them . thank you for the information ex broker .were you at nex last week?

[andy] 26/4/2017 16:37

Exbroker,

And what's the profit margin on that?

Nobody can ever answer this question, yet it's so pertinent.

[exbroker] 26/4/2017 14:18

Each block in this first shipment is 13.2 tons average, I think the total tonnage will be just under 4000 so 121 e ton a bit toppy but I am not exactly sure what the mix of the 2 stones is, Sivec is a lot more expensive.

[haroldthegreat] 26/4/2017 13:43

So 28 blocks weigh 13.2 tons and have a value of approx 1600 euros or that's the value of each block? Then the value of these shipments becomes 45000 euros approximately

[exbroker] 26/4/2017 13:05

The Agreement was finalised following the satisfactory delivery and completion of a sample order of three blocks of Illirico Selene, which was paid for and shipped to Simsekler in February 2017. Simsekler returned to the quarry in April 2017 and selected and paid for a further 21 blocks of Illirico Selene as well as 4 blocks of Sivec from the Company's Macedonian quarries together totalling 330 tons which are being shipped to Turkey this month.
So at 400k euros that’s about 121 e per ton. Each block will be a different size as it depends on how they cut them from the quarry, this order averages 13.2 tons which is normal, much above 20 tons they are harder to handle and transport. See the video
hxxps://www.foxmarble.net/photos-and-videos/

[leperky] 26/4/2017 11:56

Investors aren't exactly piling in today despite the 'good news', and that speaks volumes. CG is losing credibility although it's a testament to him to get this far. Interesting that someone mentioned that marble is a cartel. I've been wondering whether corruption/poor law enforcemnt could be at the root of a lot of the underlying issues here. Albania is not far away and it's one of the most corrupt countries. Lot's of firearms in the balkans too, not a good combination... Only a thought, but it would explain why the polishing line took so long (is it actually running yet??) and the sale of only unprocessed blocks. This is pure speculation, who really knows? Not for me yet i'm afraid.

[haroldthegreat] 26/4/2017 11:31

They have paid for 31 blocks. That's good ! How much do they weigh ? Exbroker perhaps you can answer that.

[andy] 26/4/2017 11:04

Exbroker,

Whilst any sale is clearly good as it should generate some profit, the point is that once again Fox have sold raw blocks with a much lower margin than polished.

They have now (apparently) completed their factory, so able to cut and polish their own product to receive the much greater margin, yet orders are still for raw blocks, can you see my point?

[exbroker] 26/4/2017 09:36

Andy
It states that the Turks have 9 quarries and 3 factories, they would always do the cutting and polishing themselves. The sivec quarry is almost as close to Turkey as it is to the Fox factory so why would Fox get to process the stone. Transport costs and the distance will stop the stone going back to the Balkans, and the Greeks won’t buy from the Turks if they can help it! Note that they paid for the stone in advance, and selected the blocks so this will have come from stock and frees up working capital.

[andy] 26/4/2017 09:23

Discusser,

Bu the good margin is in the supply of polished marble, not raw blocks as CG has previously stated, yet again an order is for raw blocks!

At the UK Investor Show did CG mention what percentage of the current order book figure is attributed to Banyan and Eboracum?

And if so, what was it please?

[discusser] 26/4/2017 08:57

This is entirely in line with Chris's presentation at UK Investor show. Some orders will be for blocks, some polished, and some bespoke. No worries. Everything takes longer than you think. DYOR.

[nashwan123] 26/4/2017 08:48

Good news is that FOX are generating revenue, but not as much as could be re finished stone.It is also a concern the Turks could finish the stone and sell into our market.Hopefully this wouldn't happen on the basis they couldn't compete on price with FOX. The positive is that this stone is desirable and clearly the Indians and Turks have a market for it;presumably domestically. IMHO FOX still looks cheap and well under the market radar.

[andy] 26/4/2017 08:09

Pugugly,

Agreed, more sale of raw blocks, where CG originally said these are low margin.

What's the point of setting up a finishing factory if you're only selling raw blocks?


What it is crucial to know is, Of the Euro 4.4 million order book, how much of that relates to Eboracum and Banyan?

[pugugly] 26/4/2017 08:01

Not what we wanted to hear - Another deal for what could be low margin blocks not the higher margin finished product from the all singing and dancing factory. Are we just going to turn into a raw commodity supplier ? Could this be a change of the business plan ?

[czar] 26/4/2017 07:49

Another nice deal from a very large industry player. I think deals will continue now an this is still option money at 11p, it will be a ten bagger for sure imho.

[andy] 21/4/2017 07:24

Discusser,

Everything does take longer as you correctly say, and that's not a problem, but if you state in 2012 you aim to have the factory completed in " a few months", it cannot be correct to say in 2016 "we are only one year late"!

This does not help their cause.

Then they announced a large contract with Banyan, a company only registered (In Gibraltar!) a few days earlier, and how much have they delivered to them since? Is that contract still included in their order book figures?

Then a 2 million contract with Eboracum, how much of that order has been delivered?

Is the remainder of that order still showing in the order book?

In 2012 when I heard his first presentation, the investment case looked compelling.

After that presentation someone mentioned to me that marble was a cartel, and they would struggle to find customers because of that. I always remembered that comment, and thus far it seems to be true.

CG said that night that the big bucks are when you beneficiate your own marble and sell finished product, and that does not seem to be proving easy.

The recent Indian order is for raw blocks, mush less margin on that.

I remain cynical.

[discusser] 21/4/2017 00:47

Effortless Cool: I see no reason not to trust Chris Gilbert. I've met him several times.

Everything takes longer than we think it will, but FOX has some prestigious sales and is beginning to show momentum; the main FOX risk I see is political. Kosovo's existence is guaranteed internationally (UN Protectorate, guaranteed by the EU, see Wikipedia), but events as they say can happen. If Kosovo remains independent, I expect FOX to do very well.

[glennborthwick] 06/4/2017 13:22

strong day - will it hold this time.

[andy] 06/4/2017 07:14

Harold,

I would like to think so but who knows in an uncertain world? :-)

If I have to wait around for CG to tell me, I may well become a centenarian first!

[haroldthegreat] 05/4/2017 22:22

Having just watched the presentation I agree it was impressive. The problem is that I was impressed with his original presentations which is why I purchased the shares ! We will just have to wait to see what happens. We of course now have the prospect of our stake in the new giant company with 40 quarries and have US approval. WOW !!! He says 5 years for that but if that means 20 I will not be around to see it. Andy do you think you will be around to see it ?