Foresight Share Discussion Threads

[envirovision] 09/11/2010 09:04

Lovely break out.

[nurdin] 09/11/2010 08:47

I reckon we are in for a good day...hard to buy many shares now..:o)

[lomax99] 09/11/2010 08:36

Just topped up again - onwards and upwards.

[bigbigdave] 09/11/2010 08:23

We're off again chaps 8-)

[interceptor2] 08/11/2010 18:27

It sounds like we are all very excited by prospects here, and are looking at future growth potential in the same way.

The EPS forecast for 2012 of 12.2p and like cr said, I could see easily see an increase to 15p after the Interims. Which would give a price of 180p and a per of only 12. I'm sure current forecast only take account of business in the UK and Ireland, once we start to see contract wins from other world regions then the outlook will change very quickly. imo.

It's hard not to become a little carried away by the potential upside from here, but I do believe FSG are are one of those stocks that will become a classic zulu growth stock.

I have brought in twice and will continue to top up into strength all the way up hopefully.

Regards.........

[simon gordon] 08/11/2010 18:26

Great analysis guys, getting educated to boot :-)

[nurdin] 08/11/2010 18:16

I think the rating of a stock is often dictated by the quality of earnings..one of the parameters being the operating margins.FSG have consistently improved their margins over the last 3 years..from 14.3% in 2008 to 22.7% in 2010,helped by a shift in the business mix from direct software sells to software licensing.This trend is accelerating imo and will become more pronounced as their offering is taken up by larger institutions with several hundred ,client facing bums on the seats.With development costs already written off,further increase in revenues will fall straight to the bottom line ,giving a major boost to the margins and indeed earnings

Further evidence of this trend could easily see FSG being rerated to 15-18x earnings imo..even higher if the trend is accompanied by acceleration in revenue growth.

One has to only look at the rating of a company like Autonomy to appreciate what rating a high margin business can achieve,although I admit FSG are not quite in the same league..atleast not yet..:o)

[cockneyrebel] 08/11/2010 17:57

yep, I agree, I did say a PE of 12+ dasv so that inludes higher ratings.

But stocks tend to develop a higher PE rather than just re-rate overnight. Look at JDG, it's trading on a fwd PE of 12. When I bought them 15 months ago they were on a fwd PE of 3.

When you look at FSG they were actually trading on a fwd PE of 4 at 48p back in Sep, albiet the earnings forecasts hadn't been upgraded then. FSG are organing growth compared to JDG and as they are software then the earnings growth to sales are likely to be higher too so I'd expect them to be able to trade on a PE a lot higher than 12 in a years time as they re-rate and keep delivering imo, I was quoting the medium term, say 6 months?

I think if next years forecasts got raised to 15p and these traded on 12 then the shares would be 180p in say 6 months - I'd be very happy with that.

In a years time perhaps the PE might be able to trade on 15+ and the fwd earnings forecast might well be 20p then and you're at £3 a share.

But that takes time imo, and for the patient here the rewards might be stunning over 12 months, especially if they win more banks and contracts in the US.

I think a PE of 12 in 6 months and 15p forecast earnings is pretty realistic imo - and they'll still look a buy then I suspect.

CR

[dasv] 08/11/2010 17:04

The earnings growth justifies a higher PE than 12 imo - but if the market doesn't rate it that high then it's just a matter of waiting an extra year to get the share price appreciation if its valued more on trailing rather than forward PE (i.e. consensus forecast is ignored by the market).

EPS growth march 2011 to march 2012 is going to be 49% according to forecasts which to me suggests the PE ratio is too low: this is now a real growth stock - in the sweet spot of growth.

[cockneyrebel] 08/11/2010 16:54

I don't really have a target but these being a zulu could happily trade on a fwd PE of 12+ and the more news that comes out and the more they deliver the PE could go a lot higher still imo..

With 12.2p eps forecast for next year I think ultimately they will do 15p eps or more as they get upgraded.

15p eps and a PE of 12 nowhere near out of the question over the medium term, especially with all the cash they will have - and if they announce further big contract wins even more imo.

But obviously it's aim, you need to keep it sensible and remember there's many a slip from cup to lip.

I reaaly like this share tho myself.

CR

[cupra kid] 08/11/2010 16:39

What's your target price CR?

[cockneyrebel] 08/11/2010 16:33

Well a cracking day here but still very cheap imo.

the rise feels rather like it was a bit news driven today, especially with that 40K buy in there.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 08/11/2010 15:32

That's a breakout.

Someone cleaned the mm's out of 40K earlier by the look of it.

CR

[cupra kid] 08/11/2010 14:45

Amazing if my iccle 2k top-up moved the price by 2p!

Max buy online was 1k, max sell 25k. Tells the story imo

[bigbigdave] 08/11/2010 14:39

Can buy very few online........

[nurdin] 08/11/2010 14:38

Indeed CR..:o)

[cockneyrebel] 08/11/2010 14:20

About to test that high by the look of things :-)

Last mm on 100p - is this where these say goodbye to sub-£1?

The USA isn't even factored into these yet imo, one or two decent contract wins there and it's showtime imo.

Cr

[interceptor2] 08/11/2010 09:26

Agree - Good to see Mastek highlighting focus:360, and worth remembering that the CEO in a recent interview said, Hong Kong, Israel and South Africa along with the UK are leading the new regulation review. So we could see the next contract win from one of these regions.

Extract from last Full year statement below...


"Moving forward, the contract win with Mastek will help underpin the ambitious
global growth plans we have for the Group over the next financial year. Mastek
will resell focus:360 across North America, Europe and Asia Pacific regions,
and has also become a systems integrator for direct engagements with clients
outside of the UK, providing Focus with scaleable resource capabilities on a
global basis."

[dealit] 07/11/2010 18:46

Good spot CR.

[bigalan3] 02/11/2010 07:00

I am very sure this share will be relatively successful.

[choppa] 31/10/2010 22:01

Banking reform very much on the menu...

[jakleeds] 29/10/2010 10:44

Just added a few more....

[nicedude1976] 28/10/2010 15:46

i'm glad to be in since mid 2008, and i don't intend to involve my relatives even though it may still have potential to grow.