Footasylum Share Discussion Threads

[tsmith2] 04/9/2018 08:53

good strength of buying. Tempted but waiting to see directors buying

[costax1654x] 03/9/2018 13:56

Get yr money back buy Sbtx Potential 1-2 baggers this month

[john09] 03/9/2018 12:36

Sorry to say I told you so but

[still waiting] 03/9/2018 12:24

expanding shops and spending on shop fit outs and stock at this point in the cycle seems like folly.

retailers are trying to shed their estate not take on more, very weird when all the reports are of less footfall.. maybe foot think different.

no wonder there was a no show at the AGM.

[barnetpeter] 03/9/2018 12:23

Paul Scotts view today....top award winning commentator. Ignore at your peril! When he suggests a stock is uninvestable I have learnt to stay well away.



My opinion - I always try to establish whether a profit warning is something temporary & fixable (a good profit warning, which might be a buying opportunity), or whether there's something more serious, and structural, going wrong.

It seems obvious to me that FOOT's problems are in the latter category.

We all know that retailing is brutal at the moment. Costs are rising, and business is leaking away online. Meanwhile property leases are like dead weights - with rents fixed too high, there's no way out from a loss-making shop, other than a CVA or pre-pack Admin.

The High Street is entering a period of massive change. Rents have to come down drastically, in order to allow existing retailers to compete & survive. I don't know what lease liabilities FOOT has already signed up to. It appears that management have been wildly over-optimistic in assessing market conditions to date.

Is this business viable? Possibly not, unless it can get its rents down, or somehow stimulate demand & improve margins.

Overall, I think this share is now uninvestable. Things seem to be going badly wrong, and it's difficult to see what will change for the better. Therefore this is one falling knife that I'm keeping well away from.

The bull case is basically hoping that management can turn it around. That may happen, but it's not a very sound basis for investing in anything, unless there's some clear evidence that a turnaround strategy is actually working. The opposite seems to be the case here, at least for now.

I wonder if the business expanded too fast? It's very difficult to manage rapid growth, and lots of new store openings. Systems & people often fall over in rapid roll-outs, and there's some evidence of this here. It looks a bit of a mess overall, with the original bull case of a fast-growing, profitable competitor to JD Sports, now long gone. It's important not to anchor to the old share price, and imagine that it's now cheap.

The fundamentals have deteriorated so badly, that the 74% fall from the float price still doesn't make it cheap in my view. I'm even asking the question whether this share is worth anything? If it could jettison the shops, and operate online only, it might be worth a look. Trouble is, I'm worried that younger people in particular (FOOT's clear target market) are doing things on their smartphones increasingly, so why would the down-trend in High Street performance change for the better?

[johnv] 03/9/2018 12:04

Barnet, your right this will drift down now. Dead money until we have a good update which could be 6 or 9 months away. Personally I would forget these until then. May more in the up.

[barnetpeter] 03/9/2018 11:38

The trouble with this stock is when do you buy it? People on here were saying 80p was a great buying price and it would recover and so on....they have now lost 50%.

So at 42p.....hardly a must buy so I see it drifting now to 30p and there is always the chance it will report further bad news.

At some stage it may be worth a risky punt ...but when?

[fook yu] 03/9/2018 09:23

Another disaster looming for Tsmith, if he buys expect 20p.


Yours

F.U

[typo56] 03/9/2018 09:16

deltalo, what's the store like-for-like?

[deltalo] 03/9/2018 09:13

Way oversold, this will bounce back over 50.Sales in store and online are up year on year. Online sales up 28 percent in a year.

[barnetpeter] 03/9/2018 09:06

Have a look at CWD. Different business but same type of price action. Struggle at around 50p before rights at 10

[tsmith2] 03/9/2018 08:59

Some nice buying coming through

[tsmith2] 03/9/2018 08:47

Would only be tempted if we saw material/decent buying from management etc

[tsmith2] 03/9/2018 08:45

but now v cheap. won't buy, as they can't be asked to answer my Qs

[podgyted] 03/9/2018 08:43

Looks like some willing to buy at 41.

[clocktower] 03/9/2018 08:37

The boots on the other FOOT now, is there any hope that the downward spiral can be reversed, or will this be booted into touch?

[mammyoko] 03/9/2018 08:30

NAV of 40p includes 19p of F&F (leasehold improvements)now looking to be a liability rather than an asset

[typo56] 03/9/2018 08:30

Why no like-for-like numbers? Have stores/store area really not changed in 12 months?

[barnetpeter] 03/9/2018 08:27

Inevitable as I warned above. Heavily shorted and a pile of dross. Need to stop all expenditure before they need a rescue rights at 10 pence

[tsmith2] 03/9/2018 08:27

fortunate I sold out a month or so ago If they can't be bothered to reply to investor questions

[eentweedrie] 03/9/2018 08:17

completely overpriced imo. i got out at 91p on the day of the first profits warningthey are nothing to JD.