Flybe Share Discussion Threads

[salpara111] 09/11/2016 17:12

Interesting share price action today....someone building a stake and if so to what end?
I am not invested and the results don't really encourage me to do so.

[dangersimpson2] 09/11/2016 17:05

Nice finish. Hopefully we have now seen the end of the 30's. Low 30's was just too low even with the industry issues and management uncertainty.

[sandoval] 09/11/2016 17:01

So whoever bought 5 million @ 33 yesterday is up about £300k. Good days work imo.

[kumala] 09/11/2016 16:41

Wowza, nice surprise to see this so much in the blue today, great stuff, onwards and upwards.
K

[andrzejs1] 09/11/2016 16:31

Well this is going to go back to the pound level as the revenue is higher and investemnt in germany will be profitable me thinks

[sandoval] 09/11/2016 16:29

And we haven't even got a CEO :)

[s34icknote] 09/11/2016 16:07

What a swing 10 percent down now 10 percent up !!!!!!

[kumala] 09/11/2016 15:48

Market better than i expected today. Lots of blue apearing on my screens.:)K

[s34icknote] 09/11/2016 12:36

Any one that bought this morning good on them !

[dangersimpson2] 09/11/2016 10:50

Results better than I expected. Adds to the mystery of Hammad leaving though - think it must be over future capacity growth strategy. Tone in today's results is more cautious on that front.

They need to show that the routes they have added are maturing and generating higher revenue per seat before any meaningful re-rating will occur IMO. Shouldn't require great heroics though just careful management of the everyday business.

[anony mous] 09/11/2016 09:59

Good numbers. Very good.Hopefully seen the bottom.Rerates etc let's get this back up over a quid.

[phillis] 09/11/2016 07:50

Excellent results from Wizz

[hippo] 09/11/2016 07:39

Not the car crash predicted, everything is going to take a hammering today regardless. Good results given the challenges.

[dahhad] 09/11/2016 07:19

Looks like an even worse year to come IMO. Needs a 2-3 year view!

[sandoval] 08/11/2016 11:00

Seems to look like it with those buys (5 million buys in 4 trades). Not many airlines with 78% monopoly routes, just need more bums on seats

[billiam] 08/11/2016 09:54

Well, we have had two months of falling share price, so hopefully everything has been factored in already, no?

[dahhad] 07/11/2016 16:41

Figures are likely to be grim on Wednesday! If even that good! One to forget about for 12-24 months I think

[sandoval] 07/11/2016 14:24

Link before actual figs on wednesday for long suffering shareholders. No surprises :- capacity growth is elephant in the room; hopefully no fund raising needed.

[dangersimpson2] 04/11/2016 14:03

I agree Flybe is unlikely to be profitable this year. However I'm not sure your other points are valid:

1. While load factor is too low as a sustainable business this is a result of the maturity of routes - adding significant seat capacity as Flybe have done is always going to have a hit of load factor. If Flybe simply do nothing and run the routes then load factor will return to at least 75% level. Flybe should be profitable at this load factor. In retrospect the strategy has been too aggressive (and this is pretty much why Hammad went IMO) but this is only because of post brexit market weakness not management actions.

2. Re: pricing you are quoting Q1 which is a historically weaker quarter. They are unlikely to have that level of defect across all quarters.

3. I think the key thing to remember with Flybe is that the areas they compete with easyjet is very limited and with ryanair almost non-existent. This doesn't mean they are immune to the airline cycle but given their routes they are much more closely tied to the business cycle than leisure.

4. 10 ex republic aircraft will only cost £26m actual cash - rest will be loan financing secured on the aircraft.



They bought 6.8m shares but the average price was 48.58p so actual cash cost was £3.3m not £6.6m.

c£40m cost is a big difference from your £103m. You may want to re-assess your estimate of capital requirements in light of the correct figures.

[walbrock82] 04/11/2016 13:22

Flybe may have made new lows and the shares are tempting at these levels, despite making a profit last year and solving its legacy issues.

However, Flybe will not make money this year, here is some factual interpretation:

1. Its load factor is too low; - Recently, Ryanair gave its breakeven load factor of 72%, while they are achieving 90%.
With Flybe (most recently) has dropped back to 70%, therefore (on average) each flight taking off means the airline is losing money.

2. Flybe aggressive business plan is responsible for the decline in load factor along with a 10% drop in revenue per seat.
It is making £47.95 per seat vs. the cost per seat of £51.52.

3. For Flybe to achieve a successful turnaround you need to assess EasyJet and Ryanair past performance. For instance, EasyJet
manages to increase its efficiency from 80.8% to 84.8% as it saw passenger
numbers jumped from 5.6m to 33m in the period 2000-2006.

4. On Flybe's liquidity, it may surprise you because it needs to raise fresh capital by next year to cover current year losses, spending money on the ownership of aircraft, purchase shares for Flybe's employees (an incentive) and keep financial leverage stable.
On its legacy issue surrounding 14 E195 aircraft, Flybe needs to pay £10m in 2016.
The agreement to take control 10 ex-Republic aircraft will cost it £86m upfront, which replaces the previous leasing agreement.
It has purchased £6.6m worth of shares for its employees in trust schemes.

N.B: Flybe has cash of £150m with debts of £100m.

[sandoval] 04/11/2016 01:14

It gives someone a job I guess. Saad leaving has to be an open invitation for shorters.

[discodave4] 03/11/2016 20:37

On the 31st they sold 1.3m shares and increased lent shares (recalled shorted shares) by 1.15m (total holding 14.895m shares).On the 1st Nov they bought back 689k shares and reduced lent shares by 675k to give a total holding of 14.909m shares, an overall increase of about 14k shares (13,905 to be precise) from the day before. Still slightly down though (about 100k) from the 18th Oct.I think!. Please correct me if I'm wrong, trying to learn.DD

[sandoval] 03/11/2016 11:59

looks like they added 750000 and sold 1.3 million on same day - more worrying is US election results are only a few hours before ours