Flutter Entertainment Share Discussion Threads

[vraetorian] 18/11/2022 17:01

An interesting perspective on the topic of reuniting Fox & News Crop
(A tangent that we've discussed in the past, regarding the implications of Fox's Fandual options)

www.nasdaq.com/articles/murdoch-deal-will-struggle-to-be-fair-and-balanced-0

[the white house] 18/11/2022 15:24

NED buy of 40k. Makes a change. NotedJP Morgan raises to GBP 148Maryland goes live next WedsThis is FanDuel

[pughman] 18/11/2022 10:33

There is a fed tax of 0.25% on handle.

[mip55] 18/11/2022 10:21

The tax is 51% of Gross Gaming Revenue

[the white house] 18/11/2022 08:56

Michigan numbers for Oct show Sports @ 21m and igaming @ 23m both highs for the calendar years with the monster sports hold likely good news across all statesSeparately apple download data show for the first time in 3 years FanDuel now running ahead of DraftKings since the start of gridiron season 1 Oct to date.

[pughman] 18/11/2022 08:55

With fed and state taxes of 55% in NY, plus first year promotions, adding up to circa 75-80% of FD revenue, then adding on other taxes and costs, FD isn't making much money, but it's the only operator with a sniff of making a return.
NY w/e 13.11, handle $339.9m, revenue $31.3m. FD $140.1m(41.2%), $17.3m(55.5%). DK $111.1m(32.7%), $7.9m(25.4%).Caesars $43.7m(12.9%),$3.2m(10.1%). MGM $24.7m(7.3%), $1.8m(5.8%).
At the CMD, Howe said FD had 42% of the sports online betting market, with DK and MGM having a combined 39%. That stands up in NY this past week with DK and MGM having a joint handle share of 40% and revenue 31.2%.

[solarman2013] 18/11/2022 08:00

The tax is on income . They are fine

[mip55] 18/11/2022 07:37

Interesting figures released by the CFO at the investor day regarding costs of sales averaging between 47-52 percent of Net Gaming Revenue. New York tax rate is 51 percent . Do the math as our American cousins say before trying to tell us how well we are doing in the State ?

[ahmedt1810] 17/11/2022 23:49

@Terry - great points, personally I’m only interested in long term and will continue adding to my position if I see opportunity to average cost down. I think long term the price will be much higher. My favorite other long term investment is Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB).

[ahmedt1810] 17/11/2022 23:42

@trictrac - agree that using ebita for future valuation is a better measure given expected maturity, albeit California and Texas would still be in early stages by then. Your assumptions are more realistic. That said, I think we can all agree on the massive upside. Agree that the investor presentation was excellent; I remember when DK did an investor day and the stock tanked over 10% b/c it did more harm than good. While some view the analyst price targets as irrelevant when positive, I’m sure the feeling would be different if they all downgraded the stock and lowered their targets. It was good to see they had a positive reaction after investor day.

@vrae - thanks for clarifying and no need to apologize; I enjoy sarcasm, it was just hard to tell :). Appreciate this board, it certainly beats others that are out there and much more informative.

[terrydevlin1] 17/11/2022 23:25

Some good posts there. Firstly I do agree with vraetorian’s share price forecasts. I feel at present there is downward pressure on the share price and it will only swing once it’s hit a price which looks tempting to buy back into and will get some support.
Djderry, I agree with what you say, if you are looking long term then buying at this price makes sense, I believe Flutter are in a growing market and have an amazing global business, they will definitely grow and be more and more profitable. But… if you are looking short term then it’s important to buy in at the right price and look to make short term gains. If one is talking about a long term share price of £170, it’s only a 51% ROI from where we are at, it’s not that great for a long term gain on shares. If you can make 10% ROI by trading between £109 to £120 five times you’ll make over 50% ROI.
What other shares are people here keen on?

[trictrac66] 17/11/2022 21:32

Ahmedt - thank you for your recent posts. Good to see a little more activity on this board, and a lot of good points made.

I dont think you can use a revenue multiple to value a relatively mature business in 2030. The steer from the presentation yesterday is that EBITDA margin of 25%-30% is achievable for a scale business by then. So taking 30% of $15b gives a 2030 EBITDA of $4.5 billion. Using my favourite EBITDA multiple of 10 points to a valuation of $45 billion by 2030.

The $20 billion valuation used to arbitrate the Fox dispute is now an outdated and irrelevant benchmark. I would consider a current valuation of FD to be in the $10b-$15b range. (As an aside, that makes the Fox option at $22 billion useless at the current time. Ironically, Fox would have been able to exercise the option now for a lot less than $4b had they not gone to arbitration.)

Clearly, there is a lot of upside if FD and Flutter continue to deliver on the promise. The presentation was excellent yesterday in my view, and set out a very compelling investor case.

[vraetorian] 17/11/2022 21:08

When all is said and done, its true that this board has little value.
While most are here to share information, a few friendly jabs, there is nothing being said that can't be acquired by simple research.

This board, like most stockboards, are merely entertainment.
Take from it what you will. It will never be a secret source of information just simple camaraderie between stockholders to help the time pass... and maybe a nugget of information here and there...

[djderry] 17/11/2022 20:35

This is certainly not my largest investment by a long shot,but it's still a six-figure one.I don't understand all the focus around shareprice targets.I never set one.The shareprice can do anything it wants to.It often bears little,if any,relation to the business.I focus on the business and its direction.I usually cut my companies some slack.I don't expect them to get every decision right.I want them to get the big ones right and have a process in place to mitigate their bad decisions.(A little like my own investment process) It amazes me to see,not particularly on this board,investors ( punters?)getting worked up over 1,2 3% moves in one direction or another and then ( always afterwards) why it happened.None of that stuff matters.( It's called volatility).All that matters is,when I invested,did I make the right call.

[vraetorian] 17/11/2022 20:13

Hi Ahmedt,
Ah my apologies. I thought I was laying it on kind of thick. Sometimes sarcasm doesn't translate too well over written text.

To be clear, I have been fully invested since before the Stars merger.
I'm not currently adding to my position nor am subtracting from it at this time.
Thats something to be considered a few years down the road

While, my short-term pricetargets, i believe, are accurate within reason.. I also agree with the long-term forecasts made by some of the other financial institutes.

My personal forecasts
Long-term = 163
Mid-term = 127-136
but first a sideways consolidation from here all the way down to a potential 106 is possible and shouldn't be that surprising.

Regardless, I do favor the bullish sentiment and have seen no reason to disagree with the profitability of 2023 or future metrics.

I'll keep the funny business to a minimum here. Sorry for any confusion guys.

[ahmedt1810] 17/11/2022 19:59

Vrae - I’m a bit surprised on your reaction, would like to better understand your perspective if you don’t mind sharing.

FD current metrics:
Valuation: $22B (based on Fox ruling)
Annual Revenue: $3B
Valuation Revenue Multiple: 7.3

FD future metrics by 2030:
Annual Revenue: $15B (investor day)
Valuation Revenue Multiple: 7.3 (assume same as current multiple)
Implied Valuation: $110B

The above represents massive upside to current/future valuation and stock price. Perhaps I am missing something, interested for hear your perspective if you would kindly share. Thanks.

[vraetorian] 17/11/2022 16:23

Nope, everyone should sell.. especially in that range. I promise i won't buy any of those shares (Evil Grin)

[solarman2013] 17/11/2022 14:50

Vrae, who cares? DK DROPPED hugely on earnings, Flutter has not. Give it some time and we’ll see a vast improvement in valuation.

[vraetorian] 17/11/2022 14:22

£106-£109

[blue59] 17/11/2022 13:35

I think history tells us how irrelevant THAT is!

[ahmedt1810] 17/11/2022 11:43

JPMorgan raises Flutter Entertainment price target to 14,800 (13,600) pence - 'overweight' today

[pughman] 17/11/2022 08:33

Watched the first hour, didn't hear any nuggets, switched over for the Ronaldo interview. The hour I saw was polished, and the numbers encouraging, but I knew that anyway.

[solarman2013] 17/11/2022 08:25

Isn’t it always that you get a dip on news? Sellers get out figuring they have ridden the wave.

[blue59] 17/11/2022 08:18

Then you’ll have missed it!

[terrydevlin1] 17/11/2022 06:49

I am still really struggling to know where the share price is heading right now. Would seem that the recent surge in share price and optimism of the share has cooled after the recent quarter trading update. I’ll just sit and wait for the time being before buying back in.