Fletcher King Share Discussion Threads

[cockneyrebel] 07/12/2007 08:04

Bouncing nicely Frauddy, you're missing that big yield :-)

CR

[cockneyrebel] 06/12/2007 15:21

It's bottomed Frauddy!

Your 10K buy just now?

You will regret missing this one I promise you - I tried to get you to wait with SUY but would you listen? Don't ignore me this time :-) Tho I think you are already buying as you've gone quiet! :-)

CR

[ydderf] 26/11/2007 17:02

crookney, i think you have had a very good run over the past four years, floating on the liquidty lake on small caps, but be a sensible lad now and go into cash while you can - this will be the really clever move. Most of these illiquid shares will have no market soon, much of their trading advances has come from the same source as the price rise - liquidity and cheap liquidity at that, it will likely all end in tears soon - unless you are getting the kind of value obtaining in suy right now, there is no point in investing in anything less or riskier!

[cockneyrebel] 26/11/2007 13:29

Frauddy, again you are letting the city scribblers dictate your investing.

Read what the recruiters are saying, there is no lack of of recruitment or demand for it, we are not seeing wholsale redundancies. Markets over react - up and down. I was shorting the house builders way above here before the problems manifested - it's the late for the party brigade that are shorting now.

CR.

[8trader] 26/11/2007 11:27

"crookernee"


LOL !

[ydderf] 26/11/2007 11:26

a property co with 100m of props and 70m of borrowings = 30m nav. let the value of the assets fall 25% and what to do you have? = 5m nav. all prop cos are geared my friend, even a 10% fall will reduce the nav in the example above by 33%. many cos are more highly geared because of off balance sheet naughties - you will get slaughtered if you enter at this stage of the cycle imho. much of the demand for occupancy has come from financial companies, noe failing, cutting or fleeing, crookney this is one which you WILL get wrong due to lack of experience and hubris!

[ydderf] 26/11/2007 10:58

not as cheap as SCS though crookernee, I was a substantial holder of FLK some years ago, bought at the bottom - 16-18p - when the cycle was at its low.....problem is, the commercial property cycle downturn has only just begun, what would reverse it by next June my friend?

[cockneyrebel] 23/11/2007 20:45

Well I spoke with the FD last week. Obviously he can't tell me anything that is not public domain. But he agreed that while the investment side feels the pinch in markets like this they are still doing and expect to do strong business in surveying, valuation and management.

To be honest I give up talking about it. A stock that made £700K in H2 (130% growth Half over half)last year, mkt cap £5.5m, £3m cash, as near as dammit guaranteed 8% yield. Punters can ignore it if they like, my wallet will do the talking here next week.

Trouble is everyone is brave and buying at 120p - they lost money. Everyone is scared at 60p - they won't make money.

I'll have a little bet - By June next year the commercial property sector is 20%-40% higher than today. Just like builders - in March everyone was a bull, supply demand - we'd allways need houses because of the population growth, lack of land, blah, blah. Today even the hairdresser's daughter is shorting builders, they are all going bust, market's going to fall 20-30% blah blah! Spring gets here, a few sunny days, birds singing, easter holidays and everyone is house hunting the bargains, interst rates are falling etc - 'wish I'd bought the builder shares last Christmas'.

The one thing I've learned is when there's 200 posts a day on a thread on ADVFN then get out of that stock. When nobody is interested and a thread is near dead then it's a buy.

CR

[gsands] 23/11/2007 19:35

CR,

Thanks for the reply. I've just been looking at the website.

Have you looked closely at the numbers to see how robust the companies earnings would be in a severe turndown?

I could see virtually all their departments hitting hard times, with the exception of asset management which should no be affected. Buildings will always need to be managed, come rain or shine. Maybe the landlord/tenant dept will be ok too.

But the others:


Fund management
Construction consultancy
Valuation and rating
Letting, buying, selling and developing.

could all see business tailing off drastically in the next few years.

What are your thoughts?

[cockneyrebel] 23/11/2007 19:10

No, they do all three.

But the management side and the surveying side is a big part and will remain strong.


On the investment side they will obviously make less money but it isn't anything like all their business.




Apart from Investment where they obviously do feel it they have

Fund management
Asset management
Landlord & tenant
Construction consultancy
Valuation and rating
Letting, buying, selling and developing.

If the valuaton on prooerty co's is bottoming, as looks like in SHB then any weakness in the investment side is probably at it's worst or near it imo.

These made nearly £700K pbt in H2 compared to £308K in H1. That was over 5p eps in H2. Even if that level of business halved for the coming year they are on a PE of 11 with an 8% yield.

CR

[gsands] 23/11/2007 18:52

CR,

If they manage property rather than buy it, why the last sentence:

The investment market has entered a period of uncertainty and property is being repriced. Transaction volumes are always low during the summer months, as a result of which, new price levels are not yet established. We expect prime property to remain at or very close to previous levels but secondary property is seeing values falling. We expect to see some good buying opportunities in the coming months."

[supersturrock] 23/11/2007 15:28

CR - just topped up with a few. Feel this is too conservative outfit to get into serious trouble. Yield is crazy.

[cockneyrebel] 23/11/2007 15:26

moving up on L2 on minimal size trades

CR

[johnv] 23/11/2007 14:37

Bought 5k this morning, not shown up then discovered it on plus markets with a load more trades

[deadly] 23/11/2007 13:39

My 10k buy seems to have done the trick. Now we need a few more like that.

[barn owl] 23/11/2007 13:27

Bought a tiny 1000 holding for a long-term punt. I like the divi yield and small cap valuation.
Good luck all.

[cockneyrebel] 23/11/2007 10:08

ticking up - the watchers are going to miss a rapid rally here at some point.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 21/11/2007 15:23

No trades to speak of day after day - so illiquid it now presents you with an 8.3% yield which is very safe with the £3m cash the co has. I've spokent to the company and they take maintaining the divi very seriously I've been told.

An ISAable 8.3% yield - £3m cash, mkt cap £5.25m

"INTERIM MANAGEMENT STATEMENT

Fletcher King Plc is today publishing its Interim Management Statement relating to the period 1 May to 31 July 2007.

The Company's strong performance seen in the last financial year has continued into the current year. All sectors of the business are performing in line with expectation.

Our balance sheet remains strong and there has been no significant change in the financial position during the period.

The volatility of the financial markets has had, thus far, little affect on the Company's transaction business.

The investment market has entered a period of uncertainty and property is being repriced. Transaction volumes are always low during the summer months, as a result of which, new price levels are not yet established. We expect prime property to remain at or very close to previous levels but secondary property is seeing values falling. We expect to see some good buying opportunities in the coming months."

-----------------

Very illiquid - if it only takes a few small sells to hitit then a few small buys have the reverse effect.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 19/11/2007 17:06

Cheers johnv - the yield is now 7.42%, market cap £5.9m. PE 8.7 historic, fabulous growth too.


Punters that have been selling should read that article imo:

"However, on closer inspection, it operates a broad range of property related activities that should continue to grow at a healthy pace whether or not the property market is going up, down or sideways."



CR

[churchill2] 19/11/2007 16:07

The problem with this Company see post 339.

In my opinion whether the company is doing well or not so well shareholders will come way behind management's share of the pot.

After saying that its looks very close to reigniting my interest.

[johnv] 19/11/2007 14:42

I notice it appeared here,

[cockneyrebel] 19/11/2007 13:37

7% yield, £3m cash - earnings up 44% this year.

These don't own the property - they manage it.

Hideously cheap - your average property co that has been smashed wasn't growing earnings at 40%.

"11 September 2007

FLETCHER KING PLC

INTERIM MANAGEMENT STATEMENT

Fletcher King Plc is today publishing its Interim Management Statement relating to the period 1 May to 31 July 2007.

The Company's strong performance seen in the last financial year has continued into the current year. All sectors of the business are performing in line with expectation.

Our balance sheet remains strong and there has been no significant change in the financial position during the period.

The volatility of the financial markets has had, thus far, little affect on the Company's transaction business.

The investment market has entered a period of uncertainty and property is being repriced. Transaction volumes are always low during the summer months, as a result of which, new price levels are not yet established. We expect prime property to remain at or very close to previous levels but secondary property is seeing values falling. We expect to see some good buying opportunities in the coming months.

The new year has started well and we expect this to continue."


------------------

Hardly disaterous lol :-)

CR

[battlebus] 16/11/2007 14:54

Yep will top again when bottom is reached.Surely getting close to that level now.

[lord gnome] 16/11/2007 11:59

CR - this is on next year's ISA shortlist. I just hope these price levels last until April. Perhaps even a tad cheaper :)