Firstgroup Share Discussion Threads

[brownbear3] 16/7/2020 17:04

The 10 analysts offering 12 month price targets for FirstGroup plc have a median target of 75.00, with a high estimate of 124.00 and a low estimate of 50.00. The median estimate represents a 116.89% increase from the last price of 34.58.

[stalker_boy] 16/7/2020 16:23

Super news. Will start to build a position now there is some clarity.

[brownbear3] 16/7/2020 16:04

Coronavirus: Boris Johnson to RELAX train and bus restrictions https://mol.im/a/8529383

[the canadian mounted] 12/7/2020 17:33

Public transport is exactly that
To draw people away from the one car one driver scenario.a six month virus is not going to radically change workers travel habits.come back to me in six months time and tell me everyone is working from home and playing with their children then

[kmreid] 12/7/2020 17:20

Did I say that transport has no purpose? No. However, I think we will see significantly less passenger numbers on main train routes in future.

FGP's trains are going to city centres, carrying primarily white-collar service-sector/finance/tech workers who can afford the exorbitant ticket prices. People who work in other sectors (e.g.: manufacturing, education and agriculture) typically work locally to where they live, or are taking the car/bus to the factory/school where they work.

That's my analysis, and why I'm not invested in FGP.

[the canadian mounted] 12/7/2020 16:53

Nonsense you’re talking purely of office workers and what percentage of the working population is that?there would be a domino effect on employment if everyone stayed at home.its fact transport has always had a purpose in supporting the working population

[kmreid] 12/7/2020 16:34

Lazy people will be lazy in the office or at home. Sitting blabbering in a meeting room isn't "effort". WFH makes employees happier and more productive because they: are less tired, have more money, spend more time with their kids. WFH also saves employers money because they don't have to rent massive expensive office buildings. It's a win-win all round, and technophobe boomer employers have finally realised it. Get on board or get left behind.

[the canadian mounted] 12/7/2020 14:36

Working from home won’t last
You don’t get anywhere near the effort
You would get in a working environment
Undervalued

[waikenchan] 12/7/2020 14:11

Who are they transporting, volumes will pick up, but they will not be anything near pre covid as people work from home. Goverment subsidiaries aren't going to last forever or be as generous.

Depends how you value the assets - future cash flows / returns on their assets are likely to subdued.

[the canadian mounted] 11/7/2020 21:01

It’s fundamentals are it’s ability to
Service the public needs in way of providing transportation.
It’s assets outweigh its debt

[waikenchan] 11/7/2020 17:32

The market doesn't act on fundamentals,only sentiment. Unfortunately for first group it has practically neither going for these days.

[the canadian mounted] 10/7/2020 21:21

Net assets 97p a share once North American
Business disposal.
No brainier really

[the canadian mounted] 10/7/2020 15:49

Definitely value here

[the canadian mounted] 10/7/2020 15:00

Don’t understand this,the American business will almost wipe the debt out once sold.this is way undervalued

[hodhasharon] 09/7/2020 13:55

the classic 'spring'....and up she goes. As I said yesterday, you'll never see these levels again. Once we go, we've gone. 120p by Christmas.

[the canadian mounted] 09/7/2020 07:46

Ridiculous over reaction from the city

[aidanshaw13] 09/7/2020 07:40

Written in today's papersDon't miss the busBlame auditor Deloitte if you like. But what exactly was the market expecting from First Group's full-year results? The shares skidded 23 per cent to 37¾p, spooked by news that "a material uncertainty exists that may cast significant doubt" on the group's "ability to continue as a going concern".Auditors always lay it on thick. And dig a bit deeper and there was something vaguely reassuring about the bus and rail group's £850 million liquidity buffer. Yes, the results were the usual mess: a statutory £300 million loss, hit by the familiar busload of one-offs.This time round? An £187 million impairment for the Greyhound coach wing and a £141 million "American self-insurance provision": a hint that First Group has been over-optimistic about its real insurance costs for some time.And on the face of it there is something alarming about a group now valued at £462 million lugging around £3.28 billion of net debt. Yet most of that's leases for operating assets, including £1.8 billion for UK rolling stock in what for now is an effectively nationalised rail industry.And while chief executive Matthew Gregory warns of potentially hairy covenant tests in September and March, he's got enough fuel in the tank to steer round them. Plus a viable self-help plan.First Group's US business is up for sale, with private equity sniffing around. True, these figures are pre-corona. But in the year to March 31, the yellow student bus business had £388 million ebitda.That could command a high single-digit multiple, so a take-out price of £3 billion-plus. The transit unit, with £63 million ebitda, could easily fetch £400 million. Such deals may take time. But they'd pay off all the debt. The shares are undervalued.

[the canadian mounted] 09/7/2020 07:39

Totally agree with the chairman’s comment about the government advice
They have been over cautious

[lefrene] 08/7/2020 13:41

One wonders if given the current mess we won't end up with a lot of nationalised essential service industries? 'Goodwill' seems to be a large chunk of the balance sheet, I always hate to see something nebulous claiming to have a substantial monetary value.

[golden number] 08/7/2020 12:53

Bankruptcy looms I am afraid.

[spob] 08/7/2020 11:48

Yes in fantasy land, ADJUSTED profit was the same as last year

ROFLMAO


In the real world, it looks like they will have to wave a magic wand to continue servicing their debts

[kmreid] 08/7/2020 11:42

"Excluding the coronavirus impact, the Group's adjusted1 operating profit
performance was broadly comparable to the prior year"

Got to admire the audacity of calling a permanent shift in people's working and travelling habits, a one-off adjusted item. I guess they can't say "we're screwed".

[lefrene] 08/7/2020 11:33

If you had £677 million in your back pocket would you buy this gem?