First Property Share Discussion Threads

[oregano] 23/9/2016 09:29

i went along to the AGM, along with 40 others.

The CEO stated that every cent decline in the Euro rate gives them an extra £80k of profit. they used 1.36 last year, currently 1.16. i make that a £1.6m boost to profit, a circa 20% upgrade.

He also stated they will have invested all the ship builders pension fund by the year end. that's another £40m of assets invested.

And they are close to winning mandates and investing another £70m of assets. He said the source of the cash is a well known investor, which would endorse their investment strategy. He described this as a step up for the business. He was very bullish.

So hopefully a bit more newsflow to come on the next few months. The interims will force the analyst to upgrade on currency.

[catsick] 23/9/2016 01:11

Not a lot said at the agm statement things going well and aum ticking up, I wonder if the chat after got some investors in a bullish mood seems to have supported the shares

[oregano] 20/9/2016 16:02

Pardon me - AGM statement Thursday.

[oregano] 20/9/2016 13:55

there is surely going to be a positive trading statement tomorrow. mechanical FX upgrades are a certainty and Ben wants property volatility to invest their funds.

[tyranosaurus] 20/9/2016 13:28

I don`t love FPO at the moment as it`s going down.

[dorset64] 03/8/2016 20:40

You gotta love FPO, making money whether in recession, currency challenges either home or abroad.

[jimmywilson612] 03/8/2016 19:04

hxxp://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/128914/brexit-holds-no-fear-for-first-property-boss-habib-128914.html

"If the exchange rate hangs around the current levels, we will be about a million a year better off in sterling terms," he told Proactive.

The time is now ripe to buy UK property, which, with current market volatility and prices under pressure, is a "compelling" opportunity, says Habib.

[catsick] 06/7/2016 05:17

The nav is 43p now off a much higher gbp , income and nav will be much higher with the pound thrashed, These are good value after this puke to 37p , I am sure the market in the uk will throw up some interesting opportunities, ben has proven himself to be an excellent judge of timing the market, he holds no uk assets for the funds own book and has plenty of dry powder to do deals with distressed sellers ...

[oregano] 05/7/2016 11:46

i was surprised to get my stock away JW! I agree with the management quality. As Ben said at the last results, Brexit will provide opportunities.

i owned this through the last credit crunch - i think the shares were 12 - 14p, well sub NAV, it wouldn't surprise me if they get sub NAV again. There is alot of speculative puff in UK commercial property, and i don't really like the long term trends in retail parks.

[jimmywilson612] 05/7/2016 11:13

Seems like you timed your sell well Oregano!

I am holding for now - I like the management and see no reason not to doubt them. Sectors will go up and down due to macro environments so is important to diversify your investments in the right companies in each segment.

I agree that property is going to find it hard but I also believe FPO is the best holding for me within this sector.

[oregano] 05/7/2016 09:58

you might be right. but the Zlotty is under pressure also. And UK asset values will fall. The newsflow on property is going to remain negative for some time, so whilst this looks cheap, it could get cheaper as it has been in the past. Much as I like this company, I have bailed.

[catsick] 28/6/2016 04:06

Huge profits and nav rise in the pipeline after those brexit fx moves..

[hlp_4u] 24/6/2016 08:55

This is a super big winner from Bre it and MKT volatility....

[oregano] 20/6/2016 11:15

Any ideas what is pushing these on today?

[catsick] 16/6/2016 12:21

Amazing that they financed the romanian lidl stores yielding 11% with six year fixed debt at 0.18% staggering !

[catsick] 16/6/2016 08:49

There is a nice new presentation on the companies website, the company is doing a great job raising assets in a year where a contract that used to be 80 pct of assets expired they still increased aum, this asset management business is an excellent business and essentially free !!

[speedsgh] 10/6/2016 16:55

Video interview with CEO Ben Habib...

First Property chief sees “great opportunity” if BREXIT occurs -

Ben Habib, chief executive of First Property Group PLC (LON:FPO) says he is very confident that, “short of a seismic commercial event” the company should be able to maintain and even increase its dividend.

Property fund manager First Property saw the value of the directly owned portfolio rise by 6% in its latest trading year, as it upped its dividend by 11.5% to 1.115p.

Habib also touches on the BREXIT debate, noting he would be “very gung-ho” should the UK vote to leave the EU.

“If we get a vote for BREXIT and if the commentators are right that sterling will weaken and the markets will go into a degree of volatility, we’ll be looking at that as a really great opportunity to buy assets in the UK,” he says.

[oregano] 10/6/2016 09:24

these are 44.3 bid in size. nothing available on the offer.

[catsick] 09/6/2016 18:03

To be honest I think I had some huge fx profit calculated somehow so a little under the nav increase I had penciled in ...I guess I am an idiot and will have to wait 6 months for the nav to catch up with my plan ....

[oregano] 09/6/2016 17:26

not a bad performance, the 43.5 held even when the offer came back to 43.75. it feels like we have a buyer, rather than new pistola dumping consistently. here's hoping anyway.

[jimmywilson612] 09/6/2016 14:00

Oregano, no mention if the additional capex spending will result in any higher rent.

No idea tomps, just dialled in and listening, nothing stopping anyone connecting.

[tomps2] 09/6/2016 11:54

Many thanks JW612, that's helpful. I thought it was an analyst's call only, not access for the PI?

I'm waiting for the recording on their website. All I can find so far is the ShareRadio interview this morning:

audioboom.com/boos/4673100-revenue-up-18-6-for-first-property-group-ceo-ben-habib-discussed-the-numbers

Helpful to hear views on Brexit.

[oregano] 09/6/2016 11:53

Thanks.

Interesting point on the capex, presumably more of a feature now they have directly owned properties rather than running funds. Did they mention whether it was expansionary (ie would result in improved rental) or maintenance?

[jimmywilson612] 09/6/2016 11:13

I typed this up when on the conference call - feel free to ask any questions on my notes - i was typing while listening so might be hard to read

Revenue up because owned properties.

Profit down - due to non-recurring profits (mostly turning offices to houses) + weaken euro throughout the year. Underlying profit 2015 £4M , this year £6.7M. So big improvement YoY.

Visibility/security of earnings - much improved on the year - group much better in position. (94% visibilty on earnings)

EPS - up if you strip out one off tax.

Good performance results in 11% divid increase.

Net Assets - 20% up YoY - 43p per share and end of year Euro stengthing so this improved (even though this

Cash Balances 26% down YoY - Due to investments in Rom/Poland - 3M euros. Also leant £6.5M euros to Romanian group to by properties.

Cash has now been paid back so Cash Balances is up.

Net Assets 8% up YoY (inc funds). Very happy with this as USS contract used to have 80% of the company so question markets were raised on this .

Avg fund contract now 6 years, 6 months., last year 2 years 2 months - signals happy investors.

Profit from group property increasing and has been able to minimise risk for USS fund.

51% Assets in Poland but much greater % of profit is derive from Poland

Rent from direct properties up £8M per year. They are bringing their debt down, paying £7M of debt this year(£4M last year).

Capex £4M Euros next year as they invest in the shopping centre in Poland. (1.94 Capex this year)

Currently generating 10% Yield from direct properties. Ben feels maintaining yield they wont have a problem in paying down debt further. Achieving very high rate of turn and ring fence the debt to each property - no Guarantees offered by the group to and debt held.

Romanian properties fixed interest loan at 0.18% for 6 years on recent property purchase.

Vacancy rate of 1% now (2.4% year end - 4.1% last year). top 10 tenants which accounts for 72% of rental income are all blue-chip.

Dividend has been maintained or increased YoY since 2003.

Poland market is strong - very good macro environment. Over development of offices/retail units but they are aware of that. Target is for retail units in Poland. Risk is from new Government , elected in 2015, and downgrade in credit rating.

Romania shares alot of positives as Poland on macro level - very low government debt. Only drawback from Romania is decreasing population, feels Single market is having an adverse effect in Romania and could risk future GDP.

Poland/Romania very anti-migrant and swings to the right in politics. Want to grow their own population. Ben feels single market in Europe is bad for some countries as they can't compete with economies like Germany. Ben feels Brexit will be good for the UK - feels any volatility will be welcomed by Fprop in the markets after Brexit- and short term sterling decrease will increase profits abroad.

Looking forward - £14M Cash pile to invest, interest rates low, can buy high yielding assets - very excited about the future opportunities.


Questions:
How do value Romania? - very hard to value due to low liquidity in the market. Ben feels high office vacancy rate and can be dangerous. can build easy with plenty of land and relaxed planning.

Ben wants to buy retail properties - higher spending by the consumers will result in secure and increasing rents.

Population is shifting and this is a big risk they are considering when buying properties. VAT in Romania on food dropped 24% to 9% which was a big draw for Lidl purchases (yield 11+)