Fd Technologies Public Share Discussion Threads

[badger36] 04/11/2020 09:50

Thought one aspect of management and BOD duties is to maximise shareholder value. They sure have failed since the TW hit piece to set the record straight if TW was talking BS

[swiss paul] 01/11/2020 21:03

Small write up in the IC this week - has it as a hold.

[swiss paul] 29/10/2020 19:33

Asagi - your discounting the bear raid and the rise from that.

[asagi] 29/10/2020 10:29

Sorry if I'm boring you all but it appears that new forecasts, issued in the aftermath of these results, are now hitting the data aggregation services.

We now have

Year to Mar 2021 EPS: 59.1p
Year to Mar 2022 EPS: 76.7p

so that's a decline in EPS forecast for the current year, followed by a similar percentage increase as was long forecast (albeit to a lower target).

If the 2021 forecast is delivered that would give delivered (normalised) EPS for three years of:

2019: 59.3p
2020: 60.1p
2021: 59.1p

for this (and no dividend) we are being asked to pay 51 times 2021 earnings and 39.4 times the 2022 forecast. What of that 2022 EPS forecast of 76.7p? This time last year it was 107p per share.

Yet the shares are up around 35% in the last 12 months.

Asagi (short FDP)

[glavey] 28/10/2020 06:05

It was always that FDP runs up and then falls at results. The divi is insignificant and it's sensible not to declare one at this time.

[badger36] 27/10/2020 15:42

Hope they do not restore div. for marginal tax payers CGT is less

[badger36] 27/10/2020 14:47

Big dump in US too. Down 8.6%. Incredible the low volume and against twilio having hit over 300 from 30 two years ago

[asagi] 27/10/2020 13:49

Growth at First Derivatives was stalling before the pandemic.

The year to March 2020 saw 10% revenue growth, 13% net profit growth and just 1.3% normalised EPS growth. Respectable, but not what we require from such a highly rated company.

I'd suggest taking a look at Craneware (CRW) as a comparison. Hard to conclude anything other than First Derivatives being expensive at today's price.

Asagi (short FDP)

-- edit: thanks for discussing fairly, I'm not trying to panic people into selling for my own benefit, just with a different view on the stock

[moreearl] 27/10/2020 13:14

Asagi - you highlight an interesting point - which is how are they defining 'medium term'. I do agree with you - that P/E ratio could look heady depending on how we view this medium term.

For me, its more about replicating the investment banking penetration into other sectors which would make MY medium term look very exciting (assuming FDP aren't bought out).

I could easily see one of the big consultancies thinking about the cross-sell and customer acquisition advantages of buying FDP outright and drooling...

[swiss paul] 27/10/2020 12:51

Asagi,
good try - but this little pandemic that's been affecting the world was to quote that master of understatements (Donald Rumsfeld) generally an 'known unknown'. No one fully understood how it would all pan out. So the 'guidance' given out 12 or 6 months ago can be taken in context of the overall world

Am happy to forgo my divi as in this current climate I think it might be an unwise thing to do, but hey lets look beyond the cloud to the silver lining, debt down by approx half - what not to like about that!
b/w
Swiss
PS in case it slipped you by - they put some Red X in the tanks

Release of version 4.0 of Kx to further advance our performance lead, representing a major upgrade with performance gains of 5x over the prior version

[mach100] 27/10/2020 12:23

Asagi Dividend will be revisited at year end. I expect it to be reinstated. So the divi is imo only postponed. Debt being paid down substantially gives more wriggle room.

[asagi] 27/10/2020 12:15

very fair points being made here.

Let's look at last year's interim results statement:
confidence in the achievement of full year results in line with consensus forecasts

this morning:
outcome for the full year remains uncertain, with a wider range of possible outcomes than is typical

my reading: 'we might end up making a lot less than you all currently think'

anticipate our high level of repeat and recurring revenue will underpin our performance for the full year

my reading: 'it won't be a complete disaster but we likely won't see growth either, or we'd be suggesting so'

excited by the growth opportunities in the medium term

my reading: 'it could be awhile yet before we are able to report growth'

While today's statement isn't a profit warning it is a clear steer that there is little probability of earnings growth in the short term.

How does that square with current forecasts? Today we have been told that EPS for the first 6 months of the year is down 10%. For the full year, EPS is forecast to rise 2%. Does today's statement on current trading give you confidence that the shortfall can be made up?

The following year, a 30% increase in EPS is forecast but there is absolutely nothing in today's statement that I could find to help me understand where this increase might come from.

This time last year, consensus EPS forecast for 2021 was 97p per share. Today it is 61p per share. In that time, the 2022 forecast has declined from 107p to 80p. These are substantial falls. The rating is way over the top here.

Still no dividend.

Asagi (short FDP)

[moreearl] 27/10/2020 10:51

The current trading and outlook looks reasonable to me. What companies can predict with accuracy their forward looking results in the middle of a global pandemic and economic shock?

In truth i'd be more worried if they narrowed it down to one surefire scenario.

We've rebudgeted our topline 6 times where I work for 2020/2021 and the comment on the lengthening sales cycles is repeated globally as investment purchase decisions will naturally be postponed (certainly until clarity on a vaccine hits likely 2021).

The hires and upgrades to KX indicate a confident push gearing upto growth. With reduced debt medium term possibilities look optimistic and i'm still unaware of anyone's platform/solution/software even touching KX yet. They've basically wrapped up investment banking and are concentrating on different sectors to push penetration.

My biggest fear is actually they'll get bought way before potential unfolds

[aa29] 27/10/2020 10:40

I think you'd be a lot better off if FDP did have a record of over delivery.

[swiss paul] 27/10/2020 10:17

Asagi - yes but its always under promise and over deliver.
The reduced debt was quite good and and that is a one positive. Unfortunately I could not attend the webex and am hoping that its been recorded.

Still long!

[asagi] 27/10/2020 09:52

did anyone think that this statement:

"Current trading and outlook

We delivered a resilient performance in H1 2021, taking into account the macroeconomic effects of COVID-19 which saw lengthening sales cycles across the Group. The outcome for the full year remains uncertain, with a wider range of possible outcomes than is typical. Despite this uncertainty, we anticipate our high level of repeat and recurring revenue will underpin our performance for the full year. We are confident in our strategy and excited by the growth opportunities in the medium term and will continue to invest to maximise our market position."

was a bit short on content regarding current trading?

Asagi (short FDP)

[sspurt] 27/10/2020 08:55

Nothing in the figs to move the dial. Cash conversion was a positive but short on specific news on Kx wins. Glad to see they have restarted graduate recruitment.

[badger36] 27/10/2020 08:28

Pretty solidhttps://firstderivatives.com/news/first-derivatives-announces-interim-results-2020/?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Socials&utm_campaign=Interim%20Results

[sspurt] 26/10/2020 12:59

Figs tomorrow. I think it is too early to see an acceleration in Kx sales on the back of the increased sales resource and new appointments but I would like there to be optimistic noises about sales pipeline and/or new partnerships. I am expecting CV19 to continue to hold back business on the managed services and consulting side.
We shall see.

[badger36] 20/10/2020 13:46

I've owner thinly traded stocks but FD must be a record An expensive listing in NY and hardly ever trades. Surely it would save cash to delist from USBTW twlo has hit over 340 bucks Can fdp follow ?

[moorsie2] 09/10/2020 09:27

Tata group flagship firm Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) on Thursday became the most-valuable information technology (IT) company globally, surpassing rival Accenture for the first time.  At the last closing price of Rs 2,825, TCS was valued at $144.73 billion (Rs 10.6 trillion). Accenture is currently valued at $142.4 billion, while IBM’s market cap is $110.5 billion.  TCS now is much more richly-valued with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 34x compared to Accenture’s


Interesting re partnership with FDP /Kx

[asagi] 28/9/2020 14:31

EPS +1% last year.
EPS forecast to rise 5.4% this year (2021)

then 21% the year after.

Trades on 42 times 2022 number. Has debt. Dividend cancelled.

Asagi (short FDP)

[badger36] 25/9/2020 15:56

Must be very naive those new Board members?Perhaps they should have checked with you first Easy be posting after the fact

[wiseacre] 25/9/2020 12:01

Hear now this, O foolish people, and without understanding; which have eyes, and see not; which have ears, and hear not. There are none so blind as those who will not see.
You have been warned. If you want to see my record look at the BB of Arrow Global where I started shorting the price at 430p. Now 113p. I am confident I will win out here.