Finsbury Food Share Discussion Threads

[woodcutter] 13/9/2012 15:15

Aleman

Can't recall exact numbers but over the last few years it's historically been no more than about 5/6. I think that'll change when we see the divi return and more debt come off the BS.

I think the interesting thing about the debt reduction programme is that if it does come off in sizeable chunks then i would expect the eps figs to rise in a similar fashion so the share price could rise quite substantially when we get a real breakout.

Woody

[aleman] 12/9/2012 12:33

Going to fill that gap to 40p? The prospective p/e would still only be 4.7 there.

[boffster] 12/9/2012 11:59

Exciting price action today

[llef] 12/9/2012 10:16

Perhaps, though it seems to be the thing the chairman was most concerned about as his opening lines in the interims said:

"We are pleased to be reporting further growth across each of the Finsbury businesses. This is particularly noteworthy considering the pressure we are seeing from high commodity and input price inflation".

If he trots this line out again, then I assume you wont be very impressed?

Chickens and cows consume a lot of wheat and corn, so I guess higher prices will have knock on effects on eggs and butter too.

[aleman] 11/9/2012 00:52

Doesn't the cost of wheat come 4th after sugar, eggs and butter, depending on the nature of a cake? If £10 per tonne of wheat adds 0.8p to a loaf of bread that should be about 0.2p per cake. Wheat up £50 per tonne adds 1p to a cake's manufacturing cost. Bread makes up about 1/3rd of profit but they are premium lines where passing on a 5p rise would be easier than for a budget 80p loaf. I'm not saying we shouldn't worry at all but I would have thought there were bigger potential problems.

[llef] 10/9/2012 19:15

ft article discusses impact of rising wheat prices on bakeries here:



snippet below

Britain's three big bakers – privately owned Warburtons; Allied Bakeries, owned by groceries-to-retail conglomerate Associated British Foods; and Hovis, part of UK-listed Premier Foods – are all understood to be locked in talks with retailers.
Given retailers' own financial woes, analysts expect any increases to be at least partly passed on to shoppers.
At £200 a tonne, wheat makes up 25–30 per cent of the manufacturer's selling cost or about 15 per cent of the shelf price of a loaf. Martin Deboo, an analyst at Investec Securities, said every £10 on the wheat price adds 0.8p to the cost of a loaf – about 4p, at £250 a tonne.

[aleman] 06/9/2012 17:25

Another half-page write-up in Shares Mag today, based on the PEG ratio this time. THat's a few times they've been covered now. I presume they'll follow up the results later this month, as they seem to be firmly in the FIF saddle.

[markt] 05/9/2012 10:14

well ..considering the dismal performance of FIF over 10 years.....

so ..."three quaters empty"....Im not surprised

what was the price paid at massive cash raising ....85p...

5 or so years later and share price after such a 'wonderful' acquisition....
(when the chairman sold heavily and soon after ...ran for the hills !)

is 30p !.

If any people who paid 85p in the cash raising were interested enough to post...
..their glass may appear even less full than 3 quarters empty !

...they are the people that paid a lot of the money for the company to be where it is now...

[woodcutter] 04/9/2012 10:06

sicknote

see my comments on the igr thread.

WC

[s34icknote] 04/9/2012 08:48

I sold easily 20k yesterday on a quote deal . Topped up IGR to make it 50/50 IGR / Fif
The rest in pic nxr and sia
Woodcutter which dou think is better value now ? Fif or IGR ?
I solid mlin and moved to sia
Interesting times ahead
I,m happy with all my holdings although nxr is a bit dull but think will be taken out eventually.
Good luck all
Sicknote

[woodcutter] 03/9/2012 12:40

Price rise has stalled for the moment, i guess it had to take a breather sometime. Looking forward to hearing the results now. Some very good and interesting news on igr this morning, topped up my holding, (my other recovery play) would expect to see some movement on the share price there too now.

SGI FIF and IGR are now my biggest and most significant holdings in terms of size.

WC

[aleman] 31/8/2012 10:56

Date:
31 August 2012

On behalf of:
Finsbury Food Group plc ('Finsbury', 'the Company' or 'the Group')

For immediate release

Finsbury Food Group plc

Notice of results

Finsbury Food Group plc (AIM: FIF), a leading manufacturer of cake, bread and gluten free bakery goods, will announce its preliminary results for the year ended 30 June 2012, on Monday 24 September 2012.

An analyst briefing will be held at 0930hrs on the day at Redleaf Polhill, 11-33 St John Street, London EC1M 4AA.

Analysts wishing to attend the briefing should contact Jenny Bahr on 020 7566 6767 or email [e-mail] to register.


ENDS

[aleman] 20/8/2012 09:55

We've been here before in 2010 and worse in 2008. What's the fuss about? There was a lot of scaremongering in 2008 that pushed prices up as loads of speculators entered the market. The price collapsed afterwards. We seem to have similar now. I live in a wheat growing area and the harvest here seems okay although yields will probably be down a bit. I think there are some lower yields and rotting issues down south where heavy rains have floored some crops. In the US they have had a little rain recently but it's a bit late for corn. I suspect the severity is being exaggerated - again - so the usual investment banks can make loads of money out of it. I understand the harvest in the Ukraine, Europe's breadbasket, has been good. The worst of the scaremongering is always at the end so Joe Bloggs is buying as the pros exit. Listen to the distortions the tv and newspapers peddle and you will always lose.

[llef] 19/8/2012 17:17

someone was asking about the impact on FIF re the rise in the price of wheat.
According to this article, the recent rise is equiv to 4p on a large white loaf.

"By my reckoning the recent increase in milling wheat equates to an increase of just 4p on a large sliced loaf of bread - hardly a headline, even if you manage to eat half a loaf a day as my uncle used to."

[woodcutter] 14/8/2012 22:10

markt

sometimes i think my glass is half empty, i follow your posts and i think your glass is three quaters empty with a crack in it.

WC

[woodcutter] 13/8/2012 15:02

Aleman

Once the divi is back you'll see more than 5p a year. Indeed i feel there's probably a bit of a bubble likely across dividend paying stocks over the coming years so it might be time to look in a little more detail at future growth/recovery companies who are not paying a divi at present.

If there's no divi in the next set of results i figure it will fall back again and that'll give us a further buying opportunity. Either way i'm not really concerned, I have enough to sit on and wait and would happily buy more (which i regret not doing when it was 22p) if it falls back.

My other recovery play IGR is a little behind the curve compared to FIF but it will get there too.

WC

post note; boff i think i've been very fortunate in being able to steadily build my stake in the mid to late 20's. The real dilemma will come when we see the divi return and whether it will steadily increase, there might come a point when the growth in earnings and flat lining of the divi will not warrant holding any longer. However i think we're some way off that maybe three years or so.

if it keeps throwing off cash, as i think it will, then we are going to be handsomely rewarded with divi and growth. I don't wish to plug it but i think igr will be similar.

[boffster] 13/8/2012 14:52

I don't think I'd get my hopes up if it had a prescription dose of viagra. Besides I first bought in at about 42p :o)

[aleman] 13/8/2012 14:27

I don't get excited much these days. The moving averages look very positive, though. Golden cross, anyone? 40p looks a reasonable hope, given fundamentals, but I stick with my previous suggestion that the shares would probably bounce off it and head back towards the slowly rising 200-day averages.If that keeps rising at around 5p per year, I'll be happy.

[woodcutter] 13/8/2012 14:10

Aleman, Boff, friends of FIF


I wouldn't want to get your hopes up but i think we're into new territory and i guess we're very much in the money, next stop 40p?

WC

[s34icknote] 10/8/2012 23:07

30.75p and buys at 31.5p
Could we see a breakout next week?
Markets are strong and I feel small companies are starting to claw there way up to realistic values
Interesting week ahead

[aleman] 09/8/2012 17:14

That equals January's closing high of 30.25p, although it peaked intraday at 30.75p, according to ADVFN (which isn't always accurate).

[aleman] 09/8/2012 13:00

If you check historical trade volumes, they spiked a bit for several attempts at 25p and the first couple of attempts at 30p. The very low volume of the rise in recent weeks and lack of selling at 30p, suggests 30p is not a significant resistance any more. The sellers at this level look to be spent. If it was strong resistance it would have bounced back down 2 or 3p in higher volume. Volumes suggest upward movement would see a little resistance at 32-33p then a step up to 40p which should stick a while (the resistance, not the share price which might bounce off), with apparently nothing to stop a jump up to 50p when that goes. We still need good results and a bit more publicity to encourage a rise, though. There should be plenty of supports to the downside, now, should results disappoint but that seems unlikely since we've already been told they are in line. I suppose could come from a disappointing outlook statement, which can never be ruled out. I'd see a return of the dividend (0.5p?) as a big positive but another year's wait as not being that much of a negative, if results are fine, since PG's forecast dropped last year's dividend but has 1p in for the year just started and 2p for next year.

[woodcutter] 09/8/2012 12:43

The total admin and cost of sales for 2011 was roughly £181m the wages/saleries, pension cont etc incld directors of about £51m so that's about £130m everything else incld raw materials etc. Does anyone have any detail on how this is broken down so we can estimate the wheat price impact.

I would assume most of their contracts are covered so they can increase prices to some extent but it would be interesting to be able to evaluate these costs. I suspect they'll also have forward buying and some kind of hedging in place too.

Nice to see it back at 30p, this seems to be strong point of resistance so i guess a good break through here and we could be off. The reinstatement of the divi even at 0.5p now is critical, i think, to make this break through.

WC