Fidelity China Special S... Share Discussion Threads

[essentialinvestor] 04/10/2011 12:49

Very interesting that both Buffett and Bolton appear to have been
very bullish on 2012 prospects - two of the greatest allocators of capital
and stock pickers of the last 50 years.

I am 100% in cash currently and very bearish on China over the next 2/3
years - their views made me think twice but luckily stuck with my own view.

[tyranosaurus] 04/10/2011 10:53

Anthony Bolton's China Special Situations fund has raised £460m making it the largest investment trust IPO in 16 years. Bolton is convinced that China is "the investment opportunity of the next decade".

I think he may be right.
This could be the right investment for the next decade, ie 2020 to 2029.

Certainly ain`t right for the current decade.

[spacecake] 04/10/2011 09:18

In the current climate I don't see this turning around with any great conviction, at some point it has to stop falling but may then bump along the bottom for years with occasional rallies.

The 1930's depression took decades to sort its self out - why should it be any different this time. Just like buses and profit warnings the bad news comes in three's - Sub Prime Crisis, European Debt Crisis, .....

[roman2325] 04/10/2011 08:18

Halfpenny - wake up. have you not read the headlines today?

[warala] 03/10/2011 22:41

Sell what you have first thing in the morning and have something left or watch it fall like a stone.Anthony Bolton has a lot of explaining to do.

[halfpenny] 03/10/2011 13:50

guess bottom about this level, but it is difficult to guess...... cant fall much further for the risk reward these are great prices.....give away prices with rapid gains probably in the pipeline and yes these will move up quickly so dont miss out...like me put some in stages....

Its only the Greeks holding the market down so lets wait for the Greek Gods to place a helping hand.....could be soon...

[halfpenny] 03/10/2011 13:47

i agree bounce to be huge as China middle class growing rapidly and buying..... topping up at these give away prices....looking very cheap....

[jonwig] 03/10/2011 09:29

Mas - to me it's just a bit too opaque: the share price is now at a 7% discount to the NAV of 29/09, but I suspect the share price is behind the curve of a falling NAV.

And they seem to be employing some derivatives - fine, so long as the counterparty is OK, which is a worry in these markets.

[masurenguy] 03/10/2011 09:14

Wow - the price here is going to hell in a handcart. The potential bounce could be quite tremendous after it hits the bottom. The question is - where is the bottom !

[spacecake] 28/9/2011 15:09

interview with Lansdown Hargreaves...

[roman2325] 27/9/2011 14:48

NAV of 73p - this puppy's trading at a premium!!

[roman2325] 23/9/2011 13:48

Spot on there Mas

[masurenguy] 23/9/2011 13:16

Masurenguy - 13 Jun'11 - 442: Took profits and sold half my original holding in September and then the balance early in January. Now looking for a suitable re-entry point again.

Masurenguy - 16 Jun'11 - 448: Still watching and looking for a re-entry point. Stiil not tempted yet !

Masurenguy - 8 Aug'11 - 506: Well the fall here has been quite dramatic - begining to look interesting again but I would like to see some real indications of the broader market bottoming out first before jumping back in again !

Still watching and waiting - never believed that it would go this low but if the global markets continue to fall then we could see even lower prices here - so it is too soon to consider any re-entry yet !

[roman2325] 23/9/2011 12:57

Whizzy: no need to be a hero in this market. Best of luck

[whizzy1] 23/9/2011 04:48

Bought another £5K at 2ish yesterday (4.30 AM now)@76.9 NAV 84.

Roman - Ahhh i'm doing it wrong? wait until they get higher then buy? as in buy high sell low? Got'cha now thanks.

[roman2325] 22/9/2011 12:16

Whizzy - where's your next level

[roman2325] 22/9/2011 09:29

Nice post spob

[spob] 19/9/2011 19:14

China growth fears boost Hendry's fund


Last updated: September 19, 2011 4:02 pm

By Sam Jones, Hedge Fund Correspondent

FT


A hedge fund designed to profit from a slowdown in the Chinese economy, run by the London hedge fund manager Hugh Hendry, has soared in value over the past two months as global markets have plummeted and industry peers have suffered damaging losses.

Mr Hendry – a former Odey Asset Management trader – is one of only a handful of hedge fund managers positioned against Chinese growth and therefore pitted against heavyweight investors such as Anthony Bolton.

More
On this story
Lex China property
Bulls and bears battle over China's 'miracle'
In depth Hedge funds
Japan hurts computer-driven hedge funds
Hendry plots path to go short on China


Mr Hendry's Eclectica Credit Fund is constructed from a portfolio of short positions against highly cyclical Japanese corporate credits that have high exposure to Chinese demand.

The fund, which raised a modest $150m from a handful of London investors when it launched late last year, is up 38.65 per cent so far this year, having returned 22.5 per cent in August – the hedge fund industry's worst month since the collapse of Lehman Brothers three years ago.

The news comes as concerns of a Chinese slowdown gather speed. Wu Xiaoling, the former deputy central bank governor and vice director of the finance and economy committee of the National People's Congress, said the economy would cool next year and efforts to spur growth would be constrained by inflation, in an article published on Monday by the Chinese central bank's official newspaper.

Mr Hendry's fund is up a further 11 per cent for September, according to an investor. Mr Hendry declined to comment.

In comparison, the average hedge fund has lost money this year, data from Hedge Fund Research show. The HFRI composite index, which tracks performance numbers from across the industry, is down 1.47 per cent since January.

Mr Hendry, a noted contrarian, began raising concerns about a Chinese slowdown in 2009 – even uploading a homemade video on to the popular video sharing site YouTube based on a visit to deserted Chinese real estate developments.

His flagship Eclectica fund has had a short position against Japanese corporate credit for some time, but the strategy was only broken out as a separate specialist fund 12 months ago.

Japan was the most industrially exposed economy to China, Mr Hendry told the Financial Times then. The "slightest sneeze" in south-east Asia "will give me so much... bang for my buck," he said.

The fund bought up cheap credit protection on companies such as Nippon Steel or JFE Holdings for as little as 50 basis points annually, expecting spreads between to widen following an export-led slowdown.

Japanese companies were highly exposed to China but such risks were currently underpriced, he said. The cost of CDS protection on US Steel, for example, was at the time about 500 basis points annually.

Very few hedge fund managers share Mr Hendry's pessimism. Only James Chanos – the noted short seller who correctly highlighted corruption at Enron – has also launched a dedicated 'short China' fund, which bets against the Chinese property market through Hong Kong-listed entities.

China bulls have had a rough ride so far this year, however. Mr Bolton, one of the most notable, raised $743m for his Fidelity China fund in 2010, but was forced to admit in June that returns for his fund had been "disappointing".

[edwardt] 15/9/2011 17:46

market goes up = these go down. obviously retail punters fleeing (probably at the wrong time) - china should be geared to any recovery, so am tempted to re-enter here... Bolton appears to be in high beta stocks, except his curiously large short on the south korea market.

[atflores] 14/9/2011 15:04

The de facto dilution of the shares was a serious mistake.

[tyranosaurus] 14/9/2011 13:45

Still glad I got out of these.
Not interested in getting back in.
AB doesn`t seem to know what he`s doing.
Invests all the money in stocks and then does nothing, except raking in his fees.
How about shorting, or selling the duffers, or holding more cash when the markets look dodgy. These concepts appear to be beyond him.

He should go now and say sorry to all the investors.