Fevertree Drinks Share Discussion Threads

[christh] 23/6/2017 14:55

£18 in 2 weeks time....

Th star of the AIM market.

Going to £20 by Xmas.

[apad] 23/6/2017 14:43

Folks,
I'm not sure speculation about takeovers is the main issue.
I'm looking to growth rates UK/EU/US.
At the moment UK is outstanding and the EU is good. T'werly for the US.
Interims July is the next milestone.
apad

[christh] 23/6/2017 14:39

Villarich,
Think I'll filter too.

who gives a toss....
My posts are not meant for you but the investors.
You are shorters, which is not the same.
You gamble away your money, your life.
Sad people.

[villarich] 23/6/2017 14:34

Disco I'm guessing you've got Christh on filter. Probably a good thing given his latest post about you.Yes banks sell life insurance but its thru partnerships and white labelling. They don't own the life insurer e.g. Santander sell 'Santander Life Insurance' but it's actually an Aviva product and once you're on risk you're an Aviva customer. I concede that as an example it's a bit different to Diageo and Fevertree.I still don't buy Christh's logic. Think I'll filter too

[christh] 23/6/2017 14:20

Fever-Tree’s share price has soared as the company has consistently exceeded market expectations. It announced earlier this month that its 2017 results would be “comfortably” ahead of City forecasts.

[timw3] 23/6/2017 14:19

o/t UKOG massive OIL hit!!!!

More news next week by the looks of it. Weekend press will be all over this,

Politcally stable, funded, oil seeping out, Whats not to like.

Can see 3-4p easy next week imo

[discodave4] 23/6/2017 13:44

Villa,"It'd be like a bank buying a life insurer. Just because they both deal in financial products, doesn't make them complementary."Bit at odds with that logic tbh, most (if not all) mainstream banks offer life insurance and probably own some insurance companies as well.........because they are complementary IMO.Anyway, guess the resident ramper has posted something about Diageo being interested in Fevertree - tbh why not?, in 2010 Diageo joined forces with Coca Cola in a spirits and mixers campaign and now Diageo are keen to tap into the market for zero proof beverages.............so seems a reasonable prospect to me, although my bet is on Coca Cola!.DD

[christh] 23/6/2017 13:38

Last IC View
Hold
The last IC recommendation on Fevertree Drinks PLC shares was Hold at 1,699 on
09 Jun 2017


Insitutional investors scoop up Fevertree

The popularity of Fevertree 's (FEVR) shares have yet to wane, so much so that that one of the drinks makers founders decided to sell nearly twice as many shares in the company as originally intended. On 24 May 2017 the company stated that Charles Rolls, co-founder and non-executive deputy chairman, intended to sell 2.5m ordinary shares through an accelerated bookbuild placing to institutional investors.
But demand from institutional investors was greater than anticipated, and so Mr Rolls ended up selling 4.5m ordinary shares.

Anybody can explain to me why did the institutional investors buy the 4.5m ordinary shares?

Because the growth is great and it has mileage to go, they expect and know that the shares will go higher

[villarich] 23/6/2017 12:58

Diageo don't own any sundry goods brands which is what a mixer is classified as. So if they were to buy fevertree then it would be a first for them. Not sure why they would diversify when they don't need to.It'd be like a bank buying a life insurer. Just because they both deal in financial products, doesn't make them complementary.More collaborations and more likely. Any other insight you wish to provide Christh that doesn't involve wild speculation?

[villarich] 23/6/2017 12:53

Christh, is there an emoji for grasping at straws? Comparing Kraft purchase of Cadburys doesn't work for me.

[sogoesit] 23/6/2017 12:51

Schweppes Premium Mixers (haven't seen them anywhere in UK supermarkets):

[martywidget] 23/6/2017 11:40

Hi folks.

Current Diageo brands:



There has been collaboration between Fever Tree and Diageo in past.

i.e. Back in 2013, Charles Rolls was quoted:

...Funny you should ask. Cola is a big mixer, and while we have resisted the call to bring out our own version for some time, we are launching a product with Diageo in Spain as we speak...



5th November, 2015
..Fever-Tree’s co-founder Tim Warrillow, who told the drinks business it has been working with Diageo’s premium dark spirits in Spain..



Tanqueray gin with Fever-Tree tonic:

“The spirit companies were quite quick to say that they couldn’t believe they hadn’t really focused on this area before,” says Warrillow, who adds that 95 per cent of drinkers participating in a taste test run by Diageo preferred its Tanqueray gin with Fever-Tree tonic over the leading competitor.



"The business has also developed strong relationships with global spirits companies such as Bacardi, Diageo and Pernod Ricard.



Just a recap on competitors looking back:

19 November 2015
Fever-Tree to lift spirits
Premium carbonated mixers marvel’s growth more than justifies frothy rating
Competitive threats

...Next, I want to explore the risks facing Fever-Tree, starting with any competitive threat. Given the traction the brand is enjoying, has it provoked a reaction from Schweppes, I ask?

‘Schweppes is owned by ten different companies around the world,’ reasons Warrillow. These include Dr Pepper Snapple (DPS:NYSE) in America, Suntory Beverage & Food (2587:T) in Europe and Coca-Cola (KO:NYSE). ‘And it is going to be very hard for them to mount a coordinated global strategy against us. Keep in mind these are big businesses, the mixer category is small and the premium end of the mixer category at the moment is relatively speaking, very niche. So it is a long way from their current focus in the majority of these cases.’

He concedes ‘the only exception to that is Suntory in Europe, which has launched a premium Schweppes to compete with us’, though Fever-Tree’s growth hasn’t been affected as of yet, ‘despite the fact they’ve thrown a lot of time and money at it. We’ve also seen small local competitors come to market, but none of them are achieving any great scale and so they are already starting to disappear again.’

I push back. What about the risks associated with raw material availability? ‘Obviously, there’s the quinine and the DRC is often cited as a potential risk,’ concedes Branchflower, ‘but we’ve been importing quinine for ten years without any problems. Quinine lasts for five years and we’re able to hold over six months of quinine stocks here in the UK as well, which gives us flexibility.’

Warrillow has the final word: ‘We’re now in fifty four countries around the world and one of the reasons for that is we wanted to ensure we planted our first mover flag as audibly as we could in these markets. That is very important in the drinks industry, but also ensures that as different trends develop, you are well positioned to make the most of it. Despite the fact we are a relatively small business, we have diversified as broadly as we can in terms of geography, channel and now increasingly, in terms of our product range.’

[christh] 23/6/2017 11:38

Villarich,
Diageo sells any drinks that will make money.
Diageo will be after Fevertree in the future.
When?
Wait and see the results when they come out in July.

It makes good business sense for Diageo.

The same could have been said for Cadbury's when it was bought by Craft.

[panic investor] 23/6/2017 10:46

Villa, exactly what I was thinking !

[villarich] 23/6/2017 10:43

Christh I'm struggling to link Diageo's purchase of a premium US tequila brand to them putting a bid in for a mixer company? And why would a spirits company buy a mixer company? If we are to see a bid it's more likely to come from either a large drinks or food company who want a piece of the mixer market.

[discodave4] 23/6/2017 08:25

Thanks Sogoesit for your views and explanation, much appreciated. bamboo thanks too.GLDD

[bamboo2] 23/6/2017 07:54

Good post Sogoesit.

I also view the daily chart using chart patterns formed by trend-lines. These are forward looking. Indicators are backward looking, lagging price action, but are sometimes used to help confirm trades.

I'd generally rather be buying FEVR when MACD and RSI are lower than higher, hence the increased interest.

[sogoesit] 23/6/2017 06:04

Ah, apologies, DD.
I think bamboo trades on shorter time frames/scales so you will need to ask him.

However, on a daily chart I have applied the MACD to my price view (I don't usually use MACD anymore) and can see that the MACD line is, today, just below zero.
The "problem" with the FEVR share price chart is that it has been high momentum continuously for a while and so the last time the MACD line went "significantly" below the zero line was in November 2015. It has approached and dipped below zero in February and August 2016 (less than -10).
So, relatively, it is fairly weak now, like Feb and August 2016. I say, relatively, because it is still not showing weak momentum in broad terms, -30 to -80, compared to other stocks.
However, if bamboo is trading on 15 minute time scale intervals, for example, he will see a different picture.

The MACD does not give an indication of "support". The zero line is neutral, neither excess strengthening momentum nor excess weakening. So concluding anything "imminent" would be incorrect imv. You would need to watch for it to develop, to at least around the -10 level imv in FEVR's case. Maybe that's why bamboo said it has become "interesting", on a relative basis for FEVR. Since November 2015 this has been, and continues to be, a very strong performer MACD momentum wise. There is only mild relative weakness starting now... since August 2016. It could easily turn around and head-up as well... and maybe it does on a shorter time scale. However, August last year is coincident so maybe there is summer and/or mid term (seasonal) weakness not fundamental weakness. However, there was a quick reversal last September on the MACD. The "sell in May" principle. But, as a contrarian, I usually do my accumulating during the summer and do my selling in December or March.

Only my views. I'm an amateur and don't "trade" any more on a short term basis but use TA for entry & exit decisions. The critical issue to ask bamboo is what term he is trading on. But term view is the basic element you should ask anyone that is involved in a market.
That said, if I were accumulating here I would be waiting for further weakness (as discussed on the Chart thread companion to this thread post 595).
Ciao! Must head-off work-wise!

[discodave4] 22/6/2017 23:55

Thanks Sogoesit, Sorry but I know the theory but not too certain on their current interpretation - bamboo mentioned, on the other thread I think, that they (MACD and RSI) were looking interesting.I guessed and posted the following in the hope someone more expert would put me right (trying to learn a bit): The MACD appears to have found support around zero, although there has been downwards momentum it looks like a convergence is imminent - so hopefully a crossover and upwards momentum (just guessing really). RSI doesn't seem that interesting to the lay man (me)!.As you seem to know TA any views would be truly appreciated.ThanksDD

[discodave4] 22/6/2017 21:31

Thanks PI, that's what I thought but no TA expert.

[sogoesit] 22/6/2017 21:31

DD, the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) is a plot of moving averages.
One, the MACD, is the difference between two MAs, usually exponential MAs of different periods and the second line is another MA, of a different period MA. They give a measure of momentum (change in strength of the sp) and when the MACD converges with the signal line this indicates a change in momentum, weakening above the mid-line & strengthening below.
MACD watchers are looking for the MACD line to cross-over the signal line, when below the mid-line, and rising indicating a low and return to bullishness. When the cross-over is above the mid-line, trending downwards, this indicates an overbought position trending downwards.

The RSI just shows relative strength or weakness. Or overbought when high and oversold when low. It is a Ratio of closing high prices to closing low prices over a chosen period.

(A long time ago I used to tabulate and plot these using an HP calculator. Until I got an IBM phosphorescent PC to program! Lol.)