Fevertree Drinks Share Discussion Threads

[panic investor] 22/6/2017 18:31

If I'm correct MACD is around zero and the RSI about to go North of 50 on the daily chart - a good sign imho

[discodave4] 22/6/2017 17:54

SogoesitMust agree, only the first point holds any merit in terms of risk IMO. The other two points are feeble at best.You seem to be a TA person, still curious as to what bamboo meant yesterday about the MACD and RSI looking interesting - can you shed any light?......always keen to learn.ThanksDD

[sogoesit] 22/6/2017 17:43

Sometimes (usually?) i don't get this kind of (speculative) journalism. Example from Item 3:

"... we've heard talk" that's hearsay that anyone can dream up.
"... there are no plans at present." hearsay denied.

Why speculate anymore?

If a company considers going to the main market, at a future time, there will be a reason for it. Maybe something to do with size? Maybe owners selling-out? Maybe to raise capital? We don't know but we will have a good idea when it comes around.

It's the Andrew Marr kind of journalism (where he says in interviews "I bumped into this man in the pub who said ...")!!

[sogoesit] 22/6/2017 17:07

The article excerpt referred to in post 1013:

"Fevertree (FEVR:AIM) £16.05

Current market status: LOVED

Fevertree’s tonic water is increasingly the gin lover’s mixer of choice as it is considered a high quality product.

The company has succeeded in getting its products stocked in a wide range of places, from supermarkets and restaurants to airlines and pubs.

Fevertree has an asset-light, outsourced production model that means it is very cash generative and able to pay a progressive dividend.

Its share price has risen 12-fold in value since joining the stock market in 2014. It has developed a reputation for providing conservative earnings guidance to analysts and subsequently over-delivering when financial numbers are reported. That has led to a continuous stream of earnings upgrades which have fuelled significant share price gains.

FEVR - Comparison Line Chart (Rebased to first)

WHAT ARE THE NEGATIVE POINTS FOR THE INVESTMENT CASE?

1. Could struggle to crack dark spirit market

It is betting on a repeat of its tonic water success in the dark spirit mixers category. We think that’s a tall order. The market could punish the share price if the company cannot crack this market to same degree as it has done with light spirit mixers.

Gin (a light spirit) and tonic is a refreshing drink where consumers clearly want high quality from both the spirit and the mixer, hence why Fevertree has done so well. However, dark spirits tend to be drunk neat, such as brandy, bourbon and whisky, so no need for fancy mixers.

A mixer could cover up the true taste of whisky, for example, which defeats the object of enjoying that type of spirit. Water or ice would be acceptable mixers for whisky, but you don’t need a Fevertree-branded product.

As for something like whisky and cola, surely that is the preferred drink of someone who is going after quantity over quality?

Fevertree is now selling Madagascan Cola, which it claims to enhance ‘the complex flavours’ of the finest rums, whiskies and bourbons. Convincing shophisticated whisky drinkers to start adding cola to their favourite tipple will be a hard sell, in our opinion.

2. Is the business really worth £1.8bn?

We note that Charles Rolls, one of the company’s founders and deputy chairman, last month sold £73.1m worth of shares. He cashed in £17.3m worth of shares when the company floated three years ago, plus earned £648,000 from Fevertree in pay and bonuses in 2016 alone – so hardly short of cash. Selling a large chunk now sends a negative signal to the market about the company’s future prospects.

3. Main Market plans

We’ve heard talk that Fevertree is going to move to London’s Main Market. The company’s advisers say there are no plans at present, but we see this as a short-term risk to the share price if it does happen. The stock is a popular choice for investors wanting AIM shares that qualify for inheritance tax benefits. IHT portfolio managers would be forced to sell if Fevertree went to the Main Market as the shares would no longer qualify for the tax benefits."

[sogoesit] 22/6/2017 16:40

"If I buy stocks on Smith’s tip I must sell those same stocks on Smith’s tip. I am depending on him. Suppose Smith is away on a holiday when the selling time comes around?
A man must believe in himself and his judgement if he expects to make a living at this game. That is why I don’t believe in tips."
Jesse Livermore

[martywidget] 22/6/2017 16:04

For any subscribers, Fever-Tree features in Shares magazine.

New @sharesmag today looks at bear points for Vodafone, Fevertree & bull points for Carillion & Pets at Home + more


The contrarian investor
Why it can pay to take the opposite view from the market
22 June 2017

[wetdream] 21/6/2017 21:43

Diageo on the acquisition trail:

[ccr1958] 21/6/2017 17:37

ok marty , I looked at trades as my monitor down :).. bad call ccr . ;)

[martywidget] 21/6/2017 17:34

Closing price: 1,668.00 -0.12% (Down -2.00)

Fevertree could not have had a blue finish today, or else my harmonic [back test] system would have failed!

Jesting, perhaps. Or perhaps not.

[ccr1958] 21/6/2017 17:17

Good call ccr , LOL!!!

[ccr1958] 21/6/2017 16:12

DD and bamboo , I know it was a reaction to price guessing , BLUE FINISH ..:))

[wetdream] 21/6/2017 09:01

Don't forget it's Royal Ascot-so a lot of the FEVR action will shift to Berkshire!
;-)

[sogoesit] 20/6/2017 22:56

Thanks for the comparison site bamboo.

Yes, the triangle formation is still there and setting up well. Stochastics are basing but I think it a bit early yet; the share price has bounced off the 63d MA (I use this as a match on FEVR to the conventional 50d) which, coincidentally, appears to be support at 1600/1615.
I say too early because the apex is still a few weeks off, near to 25 July, and I think the 1600/1615 support should be tested at least once again.
So, waiting is the current order of the day amongst the summer doldrums.
A bit short of cash and my long position here is about 10% but may be tempted with some long CFDs around 1615.
Look forward to your views.

PS Also thanks MartyW for the bottlers. Will check it out.

[discodave4] 20/6/2017 21:51

bambooNo expert, but the MACD appears to have found support around zero, although there has been downwards momentum it looks like a convergence is imminent - so hopefully a crossover and upwards momentum (just guessing really).RSI doesn't seem that interesting to the lay man (me)!, so go on please enlighten us mere mortals!.TaDD

[discodave4] 20/6/2017 21:23

ccrAs bamboo has posted, was in reference to idiots constantly posting finger in the air end of day prices."Book talker" - what you on about, I'm long but not a serial ramper, but if the cap fits!.DD

[bamboo2] 20/6/2017 20:25

Sogo, MACD and RSI starting to look interesting.

[bamboo2] 20/6/2017 20:24

Sogo, Compare Fevertree prices and stock lines in up to 15 different stores from the comfort of your armchair.

[bamboo2] 20/6/2017 20:18

ccr, DD was reffering to an earlier post by christ.

[ccr1958] 20/6/2017 19:53

Full moon on my mum`s 80Th Birthday ... She`ll be on Fevertree and Gin !!

[ccr1958] 20/6/2017 19:51

Disco you know about as much as anybody else on here !! Book talker !!

[martywidget] 20/6/2017 17:08

Day high 1,708.00
Day low 1,661.00
Close 1,670.00

Worth just noting, a current year all-time high was 1,798.10 on 15/05/2017

[Also, moon-phase watchers - Third Quarter 17 June 2017 12:32, Full Moon 24 June 2017 03:30]

[discodave4] 20/6/2017 16:44

Oh look, closed at 1720, or is it 1730?, muppets.Apologies regular LTH's, couldn't resist :)

[martywidget] 20/6/2017 15:19

Sogoesit, just for info. - in the UK, the Coca-Cola European Partners Coca Cola manufacturing sites are here:



Perhaps if you're nearby to one visit one, and see what they manufacture - I only ever saw Coca Cola lorries and Schweppes lorries coming out of one of the facilites over years.

Many years ago, in the '70's, they used to have Cresta - 'It's frothy man' [when they also made Schweppes & Shandy at the facility]. {I'd have loads of cheap drinks, as I knew someone that worked there}