|The IC is useful for identifying shares to research further but I wouldn't take much notice of their recommendations. Last year, whoever's behind the Bearbull column in the IC basically rubbished Fevertree and couldn't even get Charles Rolls surname correct! I remember reading it and thinking the research and thought that's gone into this amounts to 10mins max. Fevertree haven't done too badly since.|
|For my sins i take a copy of IC each week, just as an insurance policy against missing an interesting financial report, not to read the platitudinous drivel that's served up week in, week out. Today's comments about FEVR in their AIM 100 survey appear disingenuous:
'Last year was branded "exceptional" by the company, somewhat acceptably, given the growth ...' No it wasn't. The source document actually states: "2016 was another exceptional year of growth ... " which has totally different meaning. It is noteworthy that the 2015, 2016, 2017 preliminary result's outlook were all but identical. Do the Math.
The idiot who wrote the article couldn't even be bothered to check the dividend,FFS.|
|FCF Cash Conversion:
FEVR : 81%
BOO : 21%
FCF before Capex, Interest & Dividends Conversion:
FEVR : 99.65%
BOO : 97.68%
BOO is investing more - £30.675m vs FEVR's £0.823m|
|Totally agreed plus FEVR pay dividends.|
|Sgi ... well argued. Worth noting a stock's FCF generation ability:
Last 2 fiscal years ...
BOO : ~£4m (£9m in past 3 years)
FEVR : ~£30m
BOO is also the odd man out as it never had first mover advantage.
|I think it's a timing issue, staverly, that is misleading you. I.e. In the progression of growth from inception.
BOO generates about £295m for a net pass through to the bottom line of 10%.
FEVR is generating £100m for a net pass through of 27% to the bottom line, one third of BOO's.
BOO is growing top line at 50% but FEVR is at 73%.
They trade on similar P/E's (70-80) but same PEGs approx.
There will come a time, if growth rates remain constant in each case, that FEVR's top line will be the same as BOO's, and approaching that when the higher FEVR profitability will generate higher earnings, but between here and there no one is going to pay for that prospect now, given the risks. In time, maybe yes.
Next year's forecast revenue for BOO looks like £435m and FEVR's £175m netting at £43m and £47m respectively or 4p/share and 40p/share respectively. Market caps therefore forecast at £3.60bn and £2.75bn respectively.
They are simply different sizes at this point in time and for the next few years.
I hold both but don't see any reason to pay more now for FEVR than BOO as the risk/reward ratios "stack-up" reasonably for both; even less for FEVR imv.|
|Admittedly it's a judgement call, but for some time it has struck me as crackers that Boohoo can justify a market value (or EV) similar to Fever-tree. Yesterday's FY results further reinforces that view. Fever-tree has to be worth at least double.|
|Ssh, keep quiet about Distil please!
There might be some that have made so much here they could probably buy out Distil themselves!|
|Sold half here to switch to DIS where the story is just unfolding. Now I have Gin and Tonic.
Heh, maybe Fevr will snap up DIS to complement it. It would be peanuts to them 15m for a 2Bn co, ;)|
|For what it's worth every place I go it's only FEVR tonic - all kicked Schweppes out ages ago - and I sold at 1250 :-(Might buy back in tbh|
|May have asked it before...but why does it take (for example) 17 separate ATs to buy 2100 shares? Some in single figures-4,6, etc
Guess I should know, but hey-ho....|
|SP seems to be soaking up the sells and still has upward momentum.
Perhaps RBC's £17 forecast will prove to be achievable.
Onwards & upwards! ;-)|
|Sogoesit, Near term tp, and the reason for adding, based on an expected eod close above 1616 is tp 1717. The INVH&S adds 101 above the neckline, hence the twinned figures!
Longer term is still 1800|
The first holdings RNS appears.
let's not forget that these c.45k sells are about £800k each!
Onwards & upwards. ;-)|
|I wish, bamboo ;-)
Now full-up to 12% of my portfolio on this one.
Close to intermediate target met, 1625p, next, longer term, 2000p, awaited by end year.
What's your trading target on this now?
|Added earlier. :)|
The majority of shares in FEVR are held by institutions-according to the website-so I'd be surprised if such a report would have any influence, either up or down.
Steady buying at c.£15.60 means that we'll be getting a new holder base.
|I have a small sb account, and they send out a daily report of 3 shares that have either buy or sell signals, usually buy ones. On Friday one was FEVR and it was a sell.Now I have no idea re TA,for all I know they work on the one potato two potato method.What I do know was that a few weeks ago they sent out the same report on FEVR to sell, and about 3 or 4 days later the share tanked by around a quid.I just mention this in case anyone is thinking of buying more, it may be worth holding fire for a few days or maybe relook at your stops.Im in this for the long haul and I have great faith in the company.Even if it did drop Im sure it will recover, as it did a few weeks a go.As always DYOR, DSTM,loose lips cost lives, etc etc|
It's just the 500ml bottles in the Tesco Express as well - presume it's the most effective approach for these convenience store formats given the space constraints. The only Schweppes option was, and is, the 1 litre bottles.|
|A quote from the web-site about water and bubble design:
"FROM THE ELMHURST SPRING
We use the very best quality natural spring water from a source in rural Staffordshire. With a low mineral content, this water is very soft, thus ensuring that our drinks are subtle in their taste and clean in their finish. High carbonation is a vital component of any mixed drink which is why we carbonate our products to an exceptionally high level. By using small, perfect bubbles we have been able to create an even smoother finish to our drinks. The smaller bubbles, combined with the viscosity created by using natural sugars, means that all of our drinks stay carbonated for longer - crucial when you are mixing them with spirits."
Well, what more can i say ;-)?|
|Not Tesco Express but Sainsbury have a similar 7am-11pm store called Convenience near me.
Two weeks ago they started stocking Indian Tonic and Naturally Light Tonic 2 wide each in 500ml bottles.
I have asked for Madagascan Cola but still not available. Must go to the large Sainsbury a few minutes drive away for that. In this one the stocking is still the same as last several months: 3 x Tonics (Indian, Light, Elderflower); 2 x Ginger Beer (Ordinary & Light); Sicilian Lemonade AND, just this week, Aromatic Tonic. All these in 500ml bottles.
They have some cans but they're hidden away on a bottom shelf albeit depleted.
Best range availability nearby is Waitrose (almost full range in bottles and cans). But they still don't have Madagascan Cola.
Haven't checked-out Tesco yet as that's allocated to my spouse!|
|I have a small Tesco Express nearby - they have just started stocking the basic Fevertree tonic and the Naturally Light tonic having previously only stocked Schweppes.
Have other Tesco Express stores stocked it for a while or is this new across the country - anyone know?
If it is new in Tesco Express stores across the country it could be quite significant..... I believe there are around 2,000 of them.|
They quote a co. called IRI in their annual report:
'Fever-Tree contributed 68% of the value growth in the tonic category at retail from a base of 5% value share (IRI). This performance is in turn helping to drive further penetration into the Off-Trade channel, with notable distribution increases achieved in 2016 across the Safeway/Albertsons estate, as well as a significant new listing at Target in September 2016.'
But that info's probably for subscribers/clients only.|
|My local ASDA (superstore) is now selling the Ginger Beer, presumably the Madagascan Cola will follow shortly. All the local (Devon) off-trade outlets that i supervise are introducing/expanding FEVR shelf space. It's a real head-scratcher how any of the sell-side equity analysts have forecast FY17 revenue around £120m, let alone all six of them.
Conservatively assuming FY17 overseas sales repeat their *FY16 revenue growth performance based on a constant currency basis, suggests GBP78m of export revenue. Thereby requiring UK to produce FY17 revenue of just GBP42m to meet the SSEA targets. That's several million LESS than last year. Which ever way you model the FY17 revenue these expectations look crackers.
*FY16 revenue GBP m:
US 21.2 ... +36% CC
Europe 31.1 ... +24% CC
ROW 5.1 ... +88% CC
UK 44.6 ... +118% (H2: +124%)