Fevertree Drinks Share Discussion Threads

[growthpotential] 02/4/2021 21:57

Cheers, at what time does it discuss FEVR(?)

[thewheeliedealer] 31/3/2021 20:50

Hi all,

My mate Peter @Conkers3 and myself did a ‘Twin Petes Investing’ Podcast last week and FEVR was one of the Stocks we discussed and I hold it myself and am very keen on it. Also in this episode we have a Special Guest Star in the form of Tim Rogers, who was the former CEO at ABDP. He gives loads of insights into the likely future for the Car Market and also gives some background etc. around ABDP.

As always we also chatted about loads of other Stocks and Ideas for research and a fair bit of educational stuff with regards to Investing and Portfolio Management. Sadly we didn’t get time to chat about Tim’s classic motorcycle collection !!

Anyway, if you use Youtube, Apple, Audioboom, Overcast, Google+ or Spotify you can find it under the 'Conkers Corner' Channel (you want Podcast TPI 45) and you can find it on Soundcloud at the link below.

I hope you enjoy it and find it useful, we try to keep them light and they are totally unscripted, with the intent being that it is like you are eavesdropping on us having a chat down the local boozer (we can dream !!).

Cheers, WD
@wheeliedealer

[castleford tiger] 31/3/2021 16:57

no price increase this year So FAR

[eca04bpm1] 31/3/2021 16:00

Games workshop?

[apad] 31/3/2021 13:27

Mmmm. My view is that the current position is a hiatus.
I am very surprised that the company has managed to survive the loss of its on-trade as well as it has.
The key question is whether it can return to international growth when the on-trade returns. The tintins will immediately upgrade if this happens.
My net cost is 569p and FEVR is 20% of my portfolio. I have increased my holdings twice yesterday and twice today. So, I guess this shows that I am anticipating a return to growth.
The acquisition of the German distributor I don't see as changing the story - simply as another method of brand promotion. Tristel have done this very effectively.
I am somewhat surprised that the UK market can support the high prices charged for the mixers.

apad

[rampmeister] 31/3/2021 11:44

Have to agree with Anderson and increased my holding by 25% the other day. Show me a better low capex high margin high growth global company.

RM

[anderson3] 31/3/2021 11:13

Kin, I disagree with growth opportunities in America and Europe, actually all over the world,this will be back over £30.00 within a year

[kinwah] 31/3/2021 10:44

The fall yesterday was due to a downgrade by RBC's analyst who admittedly doesn't have a good record in calling this one. The chart looks to me as if it is rolling over. I remain short on the basis that it is on a very high earnings multiple with unspectacular growth prospects, the UK market is mature and you have a founder, Charles Rolls possibly continuing to reduce his shareholding. The move into the distribution of other drinks in Germany may also be viewed negatively by some as those earnings are regarded as lower quality. I haven't examined it closely but the high tax charge in the last results means reported earnings were below expectations. I'm expecting the shares to test the £20 level early into the new tax year.

[growthpotential] 31/3/2021 09:31

Natural volatility (?)

[gswredland] 25/3/2021 17:00

Lower , lows now so perhaps we could see 2500 in next month

[llama1978] 25/3/2021 14:32

I would ignore all targets. Waste of valuable reading time. They serve their own interests. Nice bounce back from the artificial dip. Made a few quid.

[aimingupward2] 23/3/2021 11:21

I would ignore Goldman. I’ve known them them be way lower than others before - and turn out to be wrong and to have to revise upwards.

[philanderer] 23/3/2021 11:14

fwiw.........


UBS CUTS FEVERTREE DRINKS PRICE TARGET TO 2,650 (2,750) PENCE - 'BUY'

GOLDMAN CUTS FEVERTREE DRINKS PRICE TARGET TO 1,700 (1,800) PENCE - 'SELL'

[apad] 19/3/2021 15:31

My value metrics include 9 years of revenue to buy the whole company.
This is far from overvalued for an international brand that will be returning to significant growth.
Some comparisons.
BVXP 21
Tristel 9
SPX 7
DOTD 10
TM17 11
AFX 11
QTX 9.

apad

[castleford tiger] 19/3/2021 15:24

I think they are overvalued too...............but I bought a few thousand as we are a strategic partner with them distributing to 120 off licences and the general public.
We are hoping to get some restaurant trade back by early summer.

tiger

[anderson3] 19/3/2021 15:19

Could also be a takeover target?

[redartbmud] 19/3/2021 14:26

CT

I wouldn't put you off at that price. Unfortunatly missed the opportunity myself.
Personally I hope that the forward guidance is conservative and that the next set of results shows greater improvement. As economies open up there will be good opportunities and the greater footprint that they are creating abroad will add revenue and profits and maybe improve margins from greater economies of scale.

Results couldn't have come at a worse time, with institutions squaring year end books. That may well have added short-term volatility. The odd 50p - £1 daily movement has been the case so far. That should only be short-term.
I am brushing this off as a blip and looking to the long term.

phil
G'day.
Good luck. Great product and great company.

red

red

[castleford tiger] 19/3/2021 14:06

just had a few at 20.51 as a long term hold

tiger

[philanderer] 19/3/2021 13:59

Afternoon red, just on my watchlist at the moment.

[redartbmud] 19/3/2021 12:24

Phil

Thanks.
DB & Numis must be smokin' some good stuff, and Citi looking through rose coloured specs.
Company forward growth projection would put 2021 profits well below 2019, even on the most optimistic numbers.
Looking for £20 - £20.50 entry point personally.
See what the scribblers say on Sunday.

red

[philanderer] 19/3/2021 11:37

FWIW

19th march Citigroup neutral tp 2250p
19th march Deutsche hold tp 2550p
18th march Numis add tp 2800p


18th march ++++ Results ++++

[growthpotential] 18/3/2021 19:45

Clearly a resilient business well positioned for growth when lockdown ends

[castleford tiger] 18/3/2021 17:56

cant argue with any of that

[energeticbacker] 18/3/2021 16:14

Investor's Champion covered in their latest update.
"The shares have held up well over recent months but fell 10% on the day of the results to 2275p as watchers were probably spooked by the underwhelming EBITDA forecast....Hardly cheap but an exciting addition to many AIM IHT portfolios and one of the few (only?) truly world class businesses on AIM."

[philanderer] 18/3/2021 14:20

Warrillow told the Standard: "We are now the market leader by value in the mixer category by 40.1%, with Schweppes around 33%. We are now in more households than any other mixer brand for the first time ever - and that is pretty unique as a premium product.

"What excites me about these results is that there isn't just a US growth opportunity - it's all around the world. We grew 108% in Australia.

"This business to date has been largely built on gin and tonic, but we have been developing our range proactively over the last few years and to deliberately target different spirits categories."

Warrillow, who launched the business 15 years ago when Britain’s craft gin trend was just getting started, said that the tequila growth in the US "continues to be phenomenal" and that he "can imagine tequila catching a similar wave in the UK".

Shares fell by nearly 10% in early trading. William Ryder, equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: "The market reaction may have disappointed some investors this morning, but this just goes to show how high expectations are and the risks of a demanding valuation.

“From a business perspective we think Fever Tree has coped reasonably well over the last year.”