Fevertree Drinks Share Discussion Threads

[davidosh] 27/9/2020 16:48

Fevertree is one of the companies to be reviewed in the Stockwatch analyst session tomorrow evening at Mello Monday with hundreds of investors attending virtually of course..



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[llama1978] 24/9/2020 13:18

Infection rate going up exponentially. Shutting the pubs an hour early not really going to stop that! I would expect more strict lockdown within a month. How will the market respond to that?? I would assume negatively.

[bamboo2] 23/9/2020 16:08

Hi Sogo, wait for the gap fill imo.
Then throw in everything you've got!

next turn I have is 28-29/9/2020 then 1/10/2020

[sogoesit] 23/9/2020 15:25

That inverse Head&Shoulders looks mighty tempting to go long... again!
Maybe a 'flu season lockdown will do the trick?

[llama1978] 18/9/2020 08:29

Biggest threat to share price at the moment is massive Europe wide / global lockdown and new stock market panic I would say. Already talks about circuit breakers etc in U.K. (whilst leaving schools open, hmmmm). Anyway. Enjoy your freedom whilst you can, responsibly of course.

[skinny] 17/9/2020 10:36

I'd agree - that gap is potentially a worry.

RSI looking peeky.

A busy area going back to last June @£24-26.

[bamboo2] 17/9/2020 09:36

Good posts CT and APAD

From a TA pov the new gap dated 15/9/2020 is a problem
Measures 2091-2104

From a pattern pov chart is making a bullish flag, capped by historical resistance.
Will revisit this evening for a closer look.

Gla

ps any thoughts skinny?

[apad] 16/9/2020 19:02

In my view the recent FEVR results said three things of significance.

1. The surprising way in which the off-trade was making up for the lapse of the on-trade is continuing.

2. Their US market approach is really working AND rolling out. Remember the US is 50 countries and they have just hired 5 new employees.

3. They are maintaining their dominance over competitors.

Post the results this was not reflected in the share price performance.

I opine that their strength is becoming realised and that the share price will easily return to the post £30 level. Simply because the easy criticisms have been demolished.

apad

[apad] 16/9/2020 18:49

CT
FEVR is 10 years
BVXP is 22
AFX is 14
BOO is 2.8
Interestingly HLMA and SPX are 7

However, on my definition of Cap/Prft(EBITDA - Investing).
FEVR is 35 years
BOO is 42
BVXP is 30
AFX is 36

One number does not paint a picture.
They are not crazy valuations if these companies are creating a major change.

According to your number, HLMA and SPX at 7 are the real crazy ones because they are established businesses.

apad

[castleford tiger] 16/9/2020 18:38

did 27 m up from 19m which was a good result.

However a valuation of 20x earnings is plenty.

here we have 10 years of sales.

Much depends on if market share stays stable in the uk/Europe.

How big can America become 300 m per year sales?
Tiger

[newtona2] 16/9/2020 17:59

The US potential is driving the price, for sure.

[castleford tiger] 16/9/2020 17:50

I never get these crazy valuations right.

So market cap is over 10 years worth of sales after stripping the cash from market cap.

EPS this year may well be 40p if they get lucky so 60x earnings.
In a normal year this may fall to 45/50x earnings.

Its been a great day with the shares up 10%.

Sales in the USA in recent results were well up but from a low starting point.

In the trade there seems to be more brands about all chasing for the same premium market.

You do not want to be last to get off the bus.

good luck tiger

[edwardt] 16/9/2020 14:40

i am no chartist but that looks like a breakout from the 3yr downtrend?

[buoycat] 16/9/2020 14:36

Strongly tipped in The Times today

[aimingupward2] 16/9/2020 14:27

Berenberg raise their tp to £25 today.

[llama1978] 16/9/2020 14:05

Up £2 in a day, that’s not bad. Any idea why? Sales data? Rumours?

[aimingupward2] 16/9/2020 09:41

Looks like very good timing, so far anyway, by the non exec dir.

[thewheeliedealer] 14/9/2020 21:03

Hi all,

My mate Peter @Conkers3 and myself did a ‘Twin Petes Investing’ Podcast a few days ago and part of our discussion covers FEVR which I hold, and its recent Trading Update. We also chatted about loads of other Stocks and the outlook for Markets as we move to what can often be a rocky time of the year.

Anyway, if you use Apple, Audioboom, Overcast or Spotify you can find it under the 'Conkers Corner' Channel (you want TPI Podcast 31) and you can find it on Soundcloud at the link below.

I hope you enjoy it and find it useful,

Cheers, WD
@wheeliedealer

[llama1978] 11/9/2020 17:05

One of the non exec directors just bought £330,000 of shares at just over £20. Sign of confidence I would say.

[llama1978] 08/9/2020 12:26

Overvalued based on what? This is a growth company globally, 40% growth in US in lockdown, expect 60% in 2nd half. Germany expansion plans, global expansion plans. Staff and marketing spend up to get things moving. Shorters always come in on results days with their scaremongery. The question is, what will they do with their cash mountain? Hopefully invest for #1 in all European markets plus others.

[hodhasharon] 08/9/2020 11:55

25% overvalued according to the quants. Time for a breather. Expect £16 before £30.

[bamboo2] 08/9/2020 11:39

I am about 90% certain of the low turn. Shorters without a trade plan would be wise to cover asap

[trying2getrichquick] 08/9/2020 11:15

So many shorters about, fair value £30 which will come within 12 months

[trying2getrichquick] 08/9/2020 11:12

Superb Q&A and the future looks extremely bright for Fevertree