Fevertree Drinks Share Discussion Threads

[johndoe23] 13/3/2020 09:01

Dead cat bounce

[trt] 13/3/2020 08:37

Could see this drop to £5 if we breach the £10 level.

[growthpotential] 12/3/2020 13:30

One years write off is not worth 80% of the value of the company dude you just have wishful hoping because you're not in

[greenelf] 12/3/2020 12:42

The PE ratio is slowly becoming more realistic. Nearly there..

[dround87] 12/3/2020 11:09

I would have been very mildly surprised to see this at 10 pre-covid as I argued on the way down. But this is fever!

[llama1978] 12/3/2020 10:22

This isn’t going anywhere in 2020 I agree but in 2021/2 it will and if US and other international markets does well it could easily be back to £35+. That makes £10 an attractive buying price. If it goes any lower someone will surely buy it for its long term potential.

[llama1978] 12/3/2020 10:02

Hopefully Queens Fever Tree Tennis tournament won’t get cancelled. A lot of others are.

[bargainbob] 12/3/2020 08:09

No growth , no events in USA , this is going nowhere for at least a year . Target £6.50.

[dround87] 11/3/2020 22:11

Porsche is a shorter who doesn't own shares. Same act all over the place. That's harsh though growth! Maybe try hedging the rest of this with a shorting etf? We're nowhere near done.

[growthpotential] 11/3/2020 19:56

I'm down 20% on the whole portfolio in 3 weeks, that's in line with the market movement. FEVR down even more but I'm holding these names till retirement in 30 years time, I don't care what they're trading at now

[growthpotential] 11/3/2020 19:54

Keep dreaming

[dround87] 11/3/2020 19:45

Monty "copy and paste" Hedge. Boring.

[sogoesit] 11/3/2020 17:17

fuji, some thoughts (albeit 1savvy and savagedstock have the gist of the issues):

Let's say they invest this year and next in the US business. It takes longer to get growth but they get there. Then we could be looking at 50p EPS upcoming on 24 March for FY 2019. Move forward a year and they see revenue growth in the low teens for FY 2020 but having more investment resulting in static EPS growth so about 50p'ish again or a slight decline.
In my view the issues are, as savagaged says, what is fair value on this (with the multiple contraction) and, as 1savvy says, will it overshoot (most likely).

As to a fair value multiple in line with peers then I would give it 20x (in a normal market) including a premium for its "premium" business model. That's £10'ish.
If it overshoots, pick your support. Say 725p?
NB the "normal market" proviso.

A lot will depend on the forward guidance on the 24th Prelims.

(I have no position at present having left a while back but am looking at a long term re-entry. Long term for me is 5+ years so am happy to be patient and wait for the price action to develop.)

Good luck.

[montyhedge] 11/3/2020 16:57

Still expensive p.e 20 for an ex growth stock.

[savagedstock] 11/3/2020 14:11

I wrote well before this decline...this has little to do with covid-19 and everything to dowith multiple contraction on a declining top line company.....at the time i thought 15X was probably fair, and generous, so still looking for about £7.50 before re-visiting

[1savvyinvestor] 11/3/2020 13:49

So hard to say . Fever tree rose on enthusiasm above true value and could fall on negativity to below true value!!!

[fuji99] 11/3/2020 13:32

Sogoiest - "Reasonable value probably approaching. But not yet" - In your opinion, what is a fair share price value when to start looking at it ?

[porsche1945] 11/3/2020 12:02

Im down 16k on these and I thought I had bought cheap!! Looking bad.

[sogoesit] 11/3/2020 10:01

Reasonable value probably approaching. But not yet,
But PEG of 0.6 is based on 35% EPS growth; whereas....

"Despite the softer trading than expected in the final months of the year, we have continued to invest behind the brand for the longer term, most notably in our growth regions. As a result, margins have ended the year behind our expectations and we expect earnings to decline by c.5% when compared to 2018."
(Ex TU of 20 January).

[wetdream] 11/3/2020 09:54

PEG Factor drops to 0.6.

[trt] 11/3/2020 09:51

Going to drop below £10 very soon.

[dround87] 11/3/2020 09:44

Maybe. I'm putting a very small amount of these in the long term bin though. Slip under a 9 quid and I lose 200ish quid. Head back to the top and I make 3 grand. Fair gamble. I reckon it kind of wants to be on a higher valuation around 20-25 PE in the 10-14 range once covid passes given that it has a moderate rate of growth in the US giving it about 3-4 years before it's level with the UK market and is in no immediate danger sitting on plenty of cash.

[ny boy] 11/3/2020 08:42

Way to early to buy here, the fizz has gone
My fav stocks for growth are PPS, ABDP & AOR