Fevertree Drinks Investors - FEVR

Fevertree Drinks Investors - FEVR

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Stock Name Stock Symbol Market Stock Type
Fevertree Drinks Plc FEVR London Ordinary Share
  Price Change Price Change % Stock Price Last Trade
5.00 0.19% 2,653.00 15:08:16
Open Price Low Price High Price Close Price Previous Close
2,699.00 2,643.00 2,699.00 2,648.00
more quote information »
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Top Investor Posts

martywidget: Ahh, reminiscences. Fever Tree – a lesson in glamour Knowing when to sell a stock which has been a star performer is a critical skill. Robin Hardy examines Fevetree's rise and fall to provide a lesson for investors October 25, 2021 By Robin Hardy htTPs://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/education/2021/10/25/fever-tree-a-lesson-in-glamour/
kinwah: They've provided very little information on these global logistics cost pressures. The big investors will be asking the questions we would all like the answers to. Is it because of freight costs for all those heavy bottles? Is it worse in some geographic areas? Do shipping costs make some regions in ROW now uneconomic to supply? They've also admitted that in Europe at least there has been restocking by customers which has flattered the revenue figures. In this industry it is very easy to hit your revenue targets by offering incentives. We don't know how well-stocked pubs and supermarket distribution centres are. We will find out more in September with the interims but I'm running my short for now.
philanderer: Warrillow told the Standard: "We are now the market leader by value in the mixer category by 40.1%, with Schweppes around 33%. We are now in more households than any other mixer brand for the first time ever - and that is pretty unique as a premium product. "What excites me about these results is that there isn't just a US growth opportunity - it's all around the world. We grew 108% in Australia. "This business to date has been largely built on gin and tonic, but we have been developing our range proactively over the last few years and to deliberately target different spirits categories." Warrillow, who launched the business 15 years ago when Britain’s craft gin trend was just getting started, said that the tequila growth in the US "continues to be phenomenal" and that he "can imagine tequila catching a similar wave in the UK". Shares fell by nearly 10% in early trading. William Ryder, equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: "The market reaction may have disappointed some investors this morning, but this just goes to show how high expectations are and the risks of a demanding valuation. “From a business perspective we think Fever Tree has coped reasonably well over the last year.” HTTPS://www.standard.co.uk/business/fever-tree-full-year-results-share-price-b924877.html
davidosh: Fevertree is one of the companies to be reviewed in the Stockwatch analyst session tomorrow evening at Mello Monday with hundreds of investors attending virtually of course.. https://melloevents.com All investors welcome and if you use the code MMV5 you will get a half price ticket. Great investor content and entertainment for less than a fiver
growthpotential: True, but if we are long term investors it's all just noise. I agree this strategy may not be consistent with your ADVFN name but hey ho :)
apad: FT "While clearly distribution businesses have different economics from brand-led outsourced mixer-cos, route-to-markets are incredibly important for beverage companies. In our experience, investors and analysts often underappreciate the importance of a strong route-to-market. There are many examples of brewers, in particular, who have significantly improved their inmarket performance when they acquired the agents handling their route-to-consumer. While we believe the German market is healthy for Fever-Tree, we believe this will further strengthen the company’s competitive advantages in the region and enable Fever-Tree to provide better service levels to its customers, thus helping it capture the opportunity ahead." apad
sogoesit: Presumption. Historical announcement dates are transparent to the market (last year Interims were published on 23 July). However, if you go to FEVR's Financial Calendar page, here htTps://fever-tree.com/en_GB/investors-financial-calendar , Interims are stated to be announced in September. Normally a company will give notice of the announcement. Has COVID interfered with this year's timings, noting that Preliminary's were published one month late? Is the market confused? Who knows? AIM is renowned for being "leaky".
sogoesit: On a TA basis we're now above the 200d MA... Being a key metric for some long term investors will the trend continue to be our (long) friend...?
sogoesit: From a new Trader's Column (Michael Taylor) in the CI yesterday: (a couple of charts not copied but sure y'all have those) "The Trader yesterday Fevertree: fizzing up for another move? Michael Taylor Fevertree: fizzing up for another move? To kick this column off, I thought it best to start with a stock everyone knows. Fevertree (FEVR) shows what is possible if one can identify a capital-light business and quality compounder early doors. It isn’t an obscure company that nobody has heard of either – it’s likely many of us were and are regular consumers. Fevertree listed at 180p in late 2014 and hit heights of over 4,000p (albeit just for one day) in October 2018 before gradually trending downwards. It currently trades below 1,350p – not far from 70 per cent off the high. It’s a grim chart for investors. But this is not an investing column. Fevertree is one of many stocks traders use as an instrument of volatility in order to generate profits. There can be no room for sentiment here. Supply is in abundance at Fevertree. Investors and even short-term traders who didn’t cut their losses are looking to sell the rallies. Those who wished they’d sold higher will use rallies to provide a steady stream of stock to the market. There is a reason why the old trading cliché ‘the trend is your friend’ is an oft-repeated mantra. When you go against the trend, you’d better have a good reason. Otherwise, you’re gambling that you’re printing the bottom. We can see in Chart 1 the price action of Fevertree over the course of 2018 before the dump. Two key points are worth noting here. Firstly, the price never once traded below either of the 200 moving averages. Secondly, price tested and bounced off the black line in the chart – the 50 EMA (exponential moving average) – multiple times over the course of several years. Why is this important? It's important because when price does something it hasn’t done before in a long time or ever before, it’s telling us that something is up and the trend may be changing. Fevertree gapped up and sold off heavily on high volume in July 2018 – a sign that perhaps the trend was coming to an end (we looked at gaps in my Mind the Gap article a few weeks ago). The price then came back to test the 50 EMA and snapped right back, showing the price wasn’t ready to break lower just yet. A few months later in September, the price put in a shooting star candle on heavy volume again. This was to be the highest price paid ever in Fevertree, as the stock ran up from just below 3,900p to over 4,100p, only to close red on the day below 3,850p. The shooting star shows willing sellers stepping in and taking control of the direction of the stock. The heavy volume showed that these sellers were out in force. The shooting star was also the second warning that the stock was getting ready for a lurch downwards. Traders should always be on the lookout for signs because when the price does something the market is not expecting volatility increases. Being on the right side of the move can rack up sizeable jumps in profit and loss (P&L). I warned of this on Twitter on 4 October that Fevertree was a market leader and needed to rally otherwise it was going lower. The next day it fell through the significant 50 EMA price support level on heavy volume, dropping over 20 per cent in three trading sessions – high for a stock that would typically move a few per cent on any given day. Markets always follow the leaders, and so Fevertree’s collapse gave other stocks permission to tank too. When popular stocks have unpopular falls, you can be sure there will be many others falling not long after like a domino effect. This can be seen acutely in last week’s Coronavirus panic. Looking ahead to 2020 and Fevertree had its first profit warning. It actually warned on revenue last November, but the price reacted strongly over the trading sessions after. This could’ve been the result of shorts closing, but since then the price is plumbing new 52-week lows. Recently, Nick Train of Lindsell Train has decided to take an opening position in the stock. Mr Train is renowned for his love of stocks with global brands and reach, and so his first salvo has sparked interest. He believes that a brand of ‘global significance’ has been created. In fact, US growth is actually faster than expected. My belief was that The Coca-Cola Company would not allow a small upstart to come to its home turf and instead choke the brand at various points in the distribution and supply chain. Perhaps that could still happen. But Coke snapped up Costa Coffee from Whitbread in 2018 for £3.9bn, and with the Fevertree price falling lower any inroads into the US will surely see the drinks behemoth running the ruler. Whether any takeover bid emerges is a source of constant speculation in the City (my belief is that a seller wants out and so a piece is planted in the press) but we shouldn’t buy the stock in hope. I would not trade Fevertree short here. The move has happened already and as traders we should be one step ahead by identifying key levels and trading from them. But it’s not time to go long yet either. Since last year’s high of just over 3,200p the price has hit the 150 EMA zone thrice and failed to break through. It’s a significant level, and it’s also much higher. I’d want to see volumes increase on up days to show signs up accumulation in the stock first. The trade in Fevertree could be a long trade should the price break through this level, with a stop placed underneath this zone should the price reverse so we cut our losses sharp. It's not an immediate trade. However, as traders, sometimes we need to sit on our hands." You can contact Michael and download his free trading handbook from htTps://shiftingshares.com
christh: Fevertree Drinks shares worth £36 despite sell-off LATEST By Graeme Evans from interactive investor. Slower growth is never good news for highly-rated stocks, but Fevertree still has plenty of fans. Runaway success stories like Fevertree Drinks (LSE:FEVR) don’t come around often, which is why yesterday’s latest slide for the AIM stock should alert investors to a potentially enticing entry point. The sky-high valuation has weakened considerably since early May, with this morning’s 12 per cent decline triggered by the rare thing of a Fevertree update without an upgrade to expectations. Poor summer weather and tough comparatives meant UK growth was a modest 5 per cent in the six months to June 30, although yesterday’s interims were brightened by further evidence of the company’s overseas growth potential in markets including the United States. Hopes that the posh mixers firm can replicate its UK success elsewhere in the world have previously been reflected in a valuation as high as 70 times earnings. And given the company’s record of over-achievement, that’s a level some investors have been prepared to pay. Now the price/earnings (PE) valuation is closer to 40 times, with the projected PE for 2020 at 35 times, following a sharp fall in the share price from close to 4,000p last September to yesterday’s 2,060p, as the stunning sales record of recent years starts to moderate. Source: TradingView Past performance is not a guide to future performance Analysts at Numis Securities are among those in the City who think the recent sell-off has been overdone, particularly given the medium-term growth opportunities outside the UK. They have a price target of 3,600p, adding that the current valuation represented an “excellent entry point to the long-term growth opportunity”. Numis said: “The global trends underpinning simple long mixed drinks continue to support increased penetration by premium mixers. We believe that Fevertree’s leading position in the category and broad portfolio of mixers means it is well placed to capitalise on this opportunity.” This view is shared elsewhere, with Investec Securities holding a target price of 3,650p based on encouraging progress overseas and expectations that growth in the UK will accelerate in the second half of the year. Morgan Stanley has a price target of 3,400p, while Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BoAML) is at 3,660p. In particular, BoAML said half-year growth of 31 per cent in the United States should reassure investors that the company is well placed to seize the opportunity. The country currently accounts for 17 per cent of group sales compared with 51 per cent for the UK and 25 per cent for Europe. The potential for further growth in North America is huge, with Fevertree’s move to wholly-owned operations meaning it now directly manages marketing, sales and distribution. This has already resulted in an agreement with Southern Glazer’s Wine and Spirits to be the group’s exclusive on-trade partner across numerous states. Fevertree believes it has a strong platform for growth in North America due to the premium mixer market being at a relatively early stage. However, it is likely to face fierce competition in a soft drinks market dominated by PepsiCo (NASDAQ:PEP) and Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO). Analysts at Jefferies said the US growth had been slightly weaker than its own expectations for 38 per cent, but added that this still represented a visible step-up in performance. They have a more modest price target of 2,700p, which reflects fears about growth moderating in the UK. They wrote: “Fevertree is an attractive medium-term growth story given the international premium mixer opportunity. There’s a risk of hiatus in the near-term as the UK moderates before the US/international accelerate.” Fevertree joined the stock market in November 2014 at a price of 134p. Since then, it has gained a reputation for strong sales growth and regular upgrades to profit forecasts. In the UK, it has benefited from the popularity of the long-mixed drink, such as gin & tonic, vodka & ginger beer or whiskey & ginger ale. Chief executive Tim Warrillow pointed out yesterday that the trend towards long mixed drinks was gathering momentum and starting to win share from beer and wine. He added: “We are increasingly optimistic about the global opportunity for Fevertree and continue to invest across all our regions, particularly the US and Europe.” These articles are provided for information purposes only. Occasionally, an opinion about whether to buy or sell a specific investment may be provided by third parties. The content is not intended to be a personal recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument or product, or to adopt any investment strategy as it is not provided based on an assessment of your investing knowledge and experience, your financial situation or your investment objectives. The value of your investments, and the income derived from them, may go down as well as up. You may not get back all the money that you invest. The investments referred to in this article may not be suitable for all investors, and if in doubt, an investor should seek advice from a qualified investment adviser.
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