Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Fevertree Drinks LSE:FEVR London Ordinary Share GB00BRJ9BJ26 ORD 0.25P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -128.00p -4.38% 2,796.00p 400,427 16:35:22
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
2,808.00p 2,812.00p 2,973.00p 2,804.00p 2,973.00p
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Beverages 170.17 56.43 39.48 70.8 3,246.5

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Date Time Title Posts
12/11/201816:25Fevertree Drinks PLC (Fever-Tree)1,808
05/11/201823:50Fevertree30
04/11/201810:49FEVER TREE with chart4,052
23/10/201809:54Fevertree - private investor44
22/7/201802:28Fevertree Drinks (FEVR) One to Watch on Monday -

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DateSubject
12/11/2018
08:20
Fevertree Daily Update: Fevertree Drinks is listed in the Beverages sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker FEVR. The last closing price for Fevertree was 2,924p.
Fevertree Drinks has a 4 week average price of 2,630p and a 12 week average price of 2,463p.
The 1 year high share price is 4,120p while the 1 year low share price is currently 1,866p.
There are currently 116,111,983 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 408,246 shares. The market capitalisation of Fevertree Drinks is £3,246,491,044.68.
01/11/2018
09:16
kpmgaccountant: Could today be the day the market decides to correct Fever Tree share price to its correct level? 15x earnings ok but at these levels the share price is crazy
31/10/2018
11:16
devalpha: Focus on the business, not short term share price movements. Interesting to note that during Monster Beverage's 100X share price increase in 9.5 years, there were 3 months during which the price dropped by 40%.
14/10/2018
00:24
sogoesit: Excerpt from the 12 October Phil Oakley article re FEVR that i mentioned in my previous post: "Let’s see how Fevertree measures up against these tests. Fevertree cash conversion: 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Adjusted operating profit 5.0 9.2 17.3 34.4 56.4 Adjusted Ebitda 5.6 10.0 18.2 35.8 58.7 Cash generated from operations -0.5 6.2 12.9 25.0 43.4 Exceptional cash items 2.3 1.1 Adjusted cash generated from operations 1.8 7.3 12.9 25.0 43.4 Op cash as % of op profit 36.3% 79.2% 74.6% 72.6% 76.9% Op cash as % of Ebitda 32.4% 72.9% 70.9% 69.7% 73.9% Free cash flow -2.9 3.1 9.7 19.0 32.7 Exceptional cash items 2.3 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Adjusted free cash flow -0.5 4.3 9.7 19.0 32.7 Adjusted profit after tax 7.4 13.9 28.0 46.1 Free cash flow as % of profit after tax 57% 70% 68% 71% Not great seems to be the answer. Its operating and free cash flows are significantly lower than its profits. So what is going on here? Are investors to think that Fevertree’s profits are not as high as it says they are? Fevertree working capital cash flows (£m) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Change in trade and other receivables -3.3 -2.4 -8.4 -13.6 -26.4 Change in inventories -1.0 -1.8 -2.0 -4.1 -2.7 Change in trade and other payables 0.4 1.5 5.1 7.6 13.8 working capital cash flow -3.8 -2.7 -5.3 -10.2 -15.3 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Trade & other receivables 6.0 8.4 16.8 30.4 55.6 Revenue 20.6 34.7 59.3 102.2 170.2 % of revenue 29.1% 24.2% 28.3% 29.7% 32.7% Going back and looking at the cash flow statement, the reason for Fevertree’s poor cash conversion is due to significant cash outflows from working capital – mainly an increase in receivables; invoices unpaid at the end of the year. These receivables represent sales – and the profits from them – that have been booked in the income statement but where the cash has not been received from customers. Fevertree is a very fast-growing business where it is quite normal to offer customers credit terms in order to grow sales. The question is whether the company is becoming too reliant on credit in order to grow and meet the expectations of investors. The company is clearly not overtrading – this is when the increases in sales are too fast and put a strain on the company’s finances – but the growth in receivables has been growing faster than sales and now accounts for nearly a third of sales, which is higher than other quoted soft drinks companies (Vimto owner Nichols is the next highest with receivables at 26 per cent of sales). As long as these receivables turn into cash – and bad debts are not a problem for Fevertree – there is no reason to question Fevertree’s profits in my opinion. That said, for me, it is something that needs watching as extending credit can only go so far in driving a company’s sales growth. How much is a company investing? Fevertree capex ratios 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Capex 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.2 Depreciation & Amortisation 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.1 Operating cash flow -0.5 6.2 12.9 25.0 43.4 Capex/Depreciation 28.5% 33.4% 42.9% 84.9% 110.0% Capex as % of operating cash flow -33.4% 4.3% 2.8% 3.3% 2.9% Most companies need to invest in their assets in order to keep their business running smoothly. There are two checks on how much or how little a company is investing that can be worked out from a cash flow statement. The first one is comparing capex with depreciation. Investing less than depreciation for a period of time can be a sign of underinvestment in a business that will eventually damage its sales and profits. In rarer cases, it can also be a sign of very prudent depreciation policies – and conservatively stated profits. Fevertree’s investment levels are about in line with its depreciation expense. Given its low investment needs, this is nothing to worry about. The other measure of investment rate is looking at capex as a percentage of operating cash flow – how much money is reinvested as a percentage of the cash generated from trading. Fevertree has a very low investment rate. One of the reasons why Fevertree has been such a good investment in recent years is because it hasn’t needed to spend a lot of money on new assets in order to grow. Looking for growing companies with low ongoing investment requirements can be a happy hunting ground for investors. A check on dividend safety The biggest reason for a dividend to be cut is a lack of free cash flow to pay it. A very quick and powerful test of dividend safety is comparing a company’s free cash flow with the cost of its annual dividend – known as free cash flow dividend cover. Cover of less than one for a prolonged period of time could be a sign of a company borrowing to pay its dividend, which can’t go on indefinitely. Fevertree free cash dividend cover (times) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Free cash flow -2.9 3.1 9.7 19.0 32.7 Dividends paid 0.0 0.0 -1.2 -4.4 -8.9 Free cash dividend cover (times) n/a n/a 7.8 4.3 3.7 Fevertree’s current dividend looks very safe and has scope to grow If you come across a share with a very high dividend yield (say more than 6 per cent) it might be a good idea to check out the free cash dividend cover. High yields usually occur because there are lots of doubts as to whether the dividend can be maintained. If there isn’t enough free cash flow to pay it you might be better off investing your money elsewhere. Using cash flow to measure financial performance Fevertree free cash flow margin: 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Revenue 20.6 34.7 59.3 102.2 170.2 Free cash flow -2.9 3.1 9.7 19.0 32.7 Free cash flow margin -14.0% 9.0% 16.4% 18.6% 19.2% A free cash flow margin shows the percentage of a company’s revenues that turns into free cash flow. Fevertree is impressive on this measure with a high and growing free cash flow margin. Anything consistently higher than 15 per cent should be seen as a sign of a very good business. Another option of calculating cash returns that doesn’t come entirely from numbers in a cash flow statement is something known as the cash return on cash capital invested (CROCCI). It compares a company’s Ebitda with the cash capital invested in the business. It can be used as an alternative to calculating return on capital employed (ROCE), which uses operating profits and capital employed that have both been reduced by a non-cash depreciation expense. The calculation for Fevertree is shown in the table below. On this basis, its financial performance is very impressive indeed. Fevertree CROCCI 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Adj Ebitda 5.6 10.0 18.2 35.8 58.7 Total assets 57.4 67.3 85.3 118.2 171.8 Accumulated depreciation & amortisation 0.6 1.4 2.8 3.2 4.3 Less: Non-interest-bearing current liabilities (NIBCL) -3.7 -5.0 -11.2 -20.9 -35.6 Cash capital invested 54.3 63.6 76.9 100.5 140.5 CROCCI 10.4% 15.7% 23.6% 35.7% 41.8% NIBCL is calculated by taking current liabilities from the balance sheet and taking away any short-term borrowing in that number. The sources and uses of cash This isn’t used much, but is a useful way of understanding where a company gets its cash from and what it does with it. It is just another way of looking at cash flows and involves rejigging the cash flow statement. The difference between cash coming in and going out shows the change in the cash during the year. Fevertree sources & uses of cash (£m) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Sources of cash: Cash from operations -0.5 6.2 12.9 25.7 43.4 Interest received 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 New loans 50.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 New equity 0.5 53.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 Total cash in 50.0 59.6 12.9 25.8 43.6 Uses of cash: Income taxes paid -0.7 -1.3 -2.5 -5.0 -9.4 Capex -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.8 -1.2 Acquisitions -44.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Interest paid -1.5 -1.5 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 Loans repaid -0.2 -50.3 -0.4 0.0 0.0 Share repurchases Dividends paid -1.2 -4.4 -8.9 Other Total cash out -46.7 -53.4 -4.9 -10.4 -19.6 Change in cash 3.4 6.2 8.1 15.3 24.0 We can see that since 2013 Fevertree has moved from being a company that got most of its cash from loans and spent it on buying a company to one that gets most of its cash from selling products and using it to pay taxes and dividends. Using free cash flow to value shares The free cash flow yield is often used as a way of measuring how cheap or expensive a share is. High yields are seen as a sign of cheapness and vice versa. You can calculate it by comparing the free cash flow with the company’s market capitalisation or by calculating the free cash flow share and dividing that number by the current share price. Fevertree free cash flow yield 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F FCF per share(p) 28.2 37.8 48.3 57 Share price(p) 2954 2954 2954 2954 Free cash flow yield 0.95% 1.28% 1.64% 1.93% Source: SharePad High quality, fast-growing businesses such as Fevertree are rarely available for a cheap price. Yet, even after a significant share price fall over the past few weeks, Fevertree shares look very expensive on the basis of their current and expected free cash flow yield. Free cash flow per share is expected to double between 2017 and 2020, but the shares still only offer a free cash flow yield of less than 2 per cent based on 2020 forecasts. In a world of rising interest rates on bonds, that doesn’t look great value unless free cash flow forecasts increase significantly as they have done in the past. Free cash flow yield is also a popular way of screening for undervalued takeover targets. A free cash flow yield of 10 per cent or more might attract the attention of bargain hunters, providing the free cash flow is sustainable."
13/10/2018
08:42
christh: Growth stock A growth stock is a share in a company that is anticipated to grow at a rate significantly above the average for the market. These stocks generally do not pay dividends, as the companies usually want to reinvest any earnings in order to accelerate growth in the short term. What defines a growth stock? In finance, a growth stock is a stock of a company that generates substantial and sustainable positive cash flow and whose revenues and earnings are expected to increase at a faster rate than the average company within the same industry. How do growth stocks work? Income, Value, and Growth Stocks. Investors who buy stocks typically do so for one of two reasons: They believe that the price will rise and allow them to sell the stock at a profit, or they intend to collect the dividends paid on the stock as investment income. What is growth and value stock? Growth and value are two fundamental approaches in stock and stock mutual fund investing. Many growth stock mutual fund managers look for stocks of companies that they believe offer strong earnings growth potential, while value fund managers look for stocks that appear undervalued by the marketplace. Why do growth stocks have high PE? Growth stocks tend to grow faster than the share price and have a higher P/E than that of the share price Unlike value investors, growth investors look for stocks with high growth potential. They often buy stocks with high P/E ratios or even negative earnings. What does PE ratio tell you? The P/E ratio helps investors determine the market value of a stock as compared to the company's earnings. ... A higher P/E ratio shows that investors are willing to pay a higher share price today because of growth expectations in the future. What is growth investing strategy? Growth investing is an investment style and strategy that is focused on the growth of an investor's capital. Growth investors typically invest in growth stocks or companies whose earnings are expected to grow at an above-average rate compared to its industry or the overall market. What is a growth company? A growth company is any company whose business generates significant positive cash flows or earnings, which increase at significantly faster rates than the overall economy. A growth company tends to have very profitable reinvestment opportunities for its own retained earnings. What is a good growth rate for a company? The acceptable rate of growth is what you accept until you have bosses or owners or investors that establish something else. Industry overall grows about the same rate as the economy, which is 2-3% in a good year. How do you calculate a company's growth rate? These numbers can all be found at the top of the company's income statement, reported quarterly and annually. Next, divide that difference by the revenue number from the prior period. Multiply that by 100, and you'll have the percentage growth rate of total revenue between the two periods. How do you calculate growth rate? Apply the growth rate formula. Simply insert your past and present values into the following formula: (Present) - (Past) / (Past) . You'll get a fraction as an answer - divide this fraction to get a decimal value. Express your decimal answer as a percentage. How do you calculate growth over last year? Here's how to calculate the year-over-year growth rate. Subtract 130.021 million from 131.017 million. The difference is 0.996 million or 996,000. Divide 0.996 million by 130.021 million, last year's employment number. The answer is 0.00766 or 0.766 percent. That's the year-over-year growth rate.
12/10/2018
19:01
christh: 5 Top AIM Stocks Held by Fund Managers ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fevertree, ASOS and boohoo.com have been just three AIM success stories in recent years. Here are the companies that top UK smaller company fund managers like right now David Brenchley 7 February, 2018 | 8:52AM Fevertree tonic mixer, gin, top AIM stocks, fund managers While they come with plenty of risk, smaller companies can offer investors better growth opportunities than their larger counterparts. The better performing funds of 2017 had growth mandates, meaning the UK funds that did best were looking for opportunities in indices with smaller constituents than the blue-chip FTSE 100. The Alternative Investment Market (AIM) was launched in 1995, as a place for smaller UK companies to float on. It offers investors willing to take on an extra level of risk in return for the potential of greater returns some cracking companies. The likes of ASOS (ASC), boohoo.com (BOO) and FeverTree (FEVR) all have market capitalisations of over £2 billion – more than some FTSE 250 firms. Despite their high profiles, they are still happily holding onto their AIM listing. They, and many others, have helped the AIM All-Share outpace the FTSE 100 fivefold and the FTSE 250 by two times over the past three years. We screened the five funds in the Investment Association UK Smaller Companies sector that are rated Gold or Silver by Morningstar analysts to check out which stocks they are holding using the Morningstar X-Ray Tool. Fevertree Unsurprisingly, Fevertree is top of the pops among smaller company funds given its stellar success and accounts for a good amount of three of the five portfolios. Old Mutual UK Smaller Companies, the only Gold-rated fund in our list, has a position of more than 4%. Old Mutual is the largest institutional holder of the stock, owning almost 10% and second only to Charles Rolls, who founded the company with Tim Warrillow. It floated on the stock market back in November 2014 and has surged 1,770% since to trade at a shade over £25 today. The firm makes premium carbonated mixers for alcoholic beverages, including tonic water for use with gin – a fast-growing drink for Britons. While the valuation has run away with itself, both revenues and sales have grown consistently by around 70% year-on-year since 2014. Fevertree said in a trading update 12 days ago that results for full-year 2017, due out in March, will be “comfortably ahead of market expectations”, so expect some further juice in the share price in the short term. SLI UK Smaller Companies has 3% of its portfolio in Fevertree, while River & Mercantile UK Equity Smaller Companies has 2.5%. ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Smart Metering Systems (SMS) Another “ten-bagger”, Smart Metering Systems floated in 2011 at 60p per share. It currently trades hands at 740p – growth of 1,133%. The market cap stands at £669 million. This time, Old Mutual is the largest shareholder, having got in at the initial public offering and Dan Nickols’ fund has recently upped its stake. It currently represents 2.88% of his portfolio, 4.23% of the River & Mercantile fund and 2.29% of the Standard Life offering. The Glasgow-based company owns and operates gas and electricity meters on behalf of major energy companies like Centrica, E.ON, Gazprom and SSE. Results for the six months to June 30 2017 saw SMS increase revenue by 14% to £36.8 million with a slight improvement in pre-tax profits but decrease in earnings per share of 10%. ------------------------------------------------------------------------- First Derivatives (FDP) Capitalised at just over £1 billion, First Derivatives is a more seasoned listed company. Its share price has doubled since the start of 2017 and is the largest holding in the Standard Life fund at 5% of assets. The Old Mutual offering has a small position. It’s not widely owned by institutions, with chief executive and founder Brian Conlon still hanging on to around a third of shares. It’s also the second largest holding in the Bronze-rated Slater Growth Fund. First Derivatives provides software products and consulting services to institutions in the finance, technology and energy sectors. It also supplies technology to enable the Red Bull racing team to analyse data during Formula 1 Grand Prix races. Its results for the six months to 31 August 2017 showed revenue up 21% and adjusted pre-tax profits up 13%. Chairman Seamus Keating said full-year performance is expected to be ahead of the board’s expectations. ------------------------------------------------------------------------- GB Group (GBG) Cyber security firm GB Group has been a listed company for more than 25 years, but moved to AIM in August 2010. Then trading at 25p, it’s now up to 429p. GB provides identity verification services to prevent fraud to blue-chip names such as carmaker Ford, apparel seller Nike and global banking giant HSBC. The share price had a wobble late last year, falling 40% in the space five weeks to trade at 210p after the election of Donald Trump as President of the United States in November. It’s bounced back since, though, more than doubling. GB is highly cash generative with an experienced and incentivised management team, according to sellside broker finnCap. It has seen long-term double-digit organic growth and has recurring revenue streams. A forecast yield of 1% for 2018 is decent for a growing company, especially considering the dividend is growing at 10%-plus every year and is well covered by earnings. ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Octopus Investments, a provider of venture capital trusts, is the largest shareholder at over 10% with Standard Life Aberdeen and Canaccord Genuity next. The SLI fund has a 2.5% position in GB and Artemis UK Smaller Companies has 1.3%. ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Blue Prism (PRSM) Blue Prism is another success story for AIM’s tech sector. The company provides robotics software that enables large companies to automate many mundane back-office tasks, freeing their employees to carry out more important activities. The firm debuted on AIM in March 2016 at 78p. In almost two years, its share price has shot up over 1,500% to £13 today. But with that stellar share price growth comes questions over valuations, and some fund managers have recently taken profits on their holdings in Blue Prism. One of those is James Baker, manager of Chelverton UK Growth. Baker told Morningstar recently that he exited his position in mid-2017 at around 800p – “much too early” despite having made eight times his money. His reasoning, though, was that Blue Prism’s “market capitalisation to sales ratio was becoming unsustainable fast”. Although some board members have been taking profits in recent months, management still own significant portions of the stock. Old Mutual owns a fifth of the company and Nickols’ fund has 2.58% of its assets invested. hTtp://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/164887/5-top-aim-stocks-held-by-fund-managers.aspx/
09/10/2018
21:17
wetdream: For those who don't see The Times: ------------------------------ Fevertree investors feeling sick amid slowdown fears The Times9 October 2018Louisa Clarence-Smith Market report Stock market punters who were betting on a takeover of Fevertree Drinks may have been reaching for something stronger last night. The rumour mill had it that Pepsico might be running a slide rule over the posh tonic maker, but the fizz went out of the stock yesterday as the share price slumped by 332p, or 10.3 per cent, to £28.90. While the fall should be viewed in the context of the wider market selloff, some of the damage appeared to have been inflicted by a research note from Jefferies in turn citing industry data pointing to a slowdown in Fevertree’s British growth. Ironically, the note suggested that the recent weakness in the share price was a “rare buying opportunity . . . concerns look overdone”, yet then went on to heighten those concerns. Jefferies quoted Nielsen data showing Fevertree’s growth in the UK slowing from 75.2 per cent in the four weeks to August 12 to 37.7 per cent in the subsequent four-week period. However, the broker pointed out that the slowdown, which affected the whole fizzy drinks market, could be attributable to “a degree of normalisation” after the summer heat. It concluded: “We do not view Fevertree’s slowdown as representing the beginning of a material slowdown in UK growth.” It went on to describe the mixers group as “a unique asset that offers a leveraged play on premiumisation trends in spirits”, adding that the company’s actions in America, where it has installed its own management operation, also held promise. Despite a chunky valuation, it rated the shares a “buy”.
08/10/2018
13:58
christh: Email the company and received this While I understand your frustration with the share price fall, this has not been confined to Fever-Tree. A number of other high growth stocks - Blue Prism being one such example – have seen very similar share price falls over the last 3 days linked to the wider market sell off. As is often the case in these scenarios, it is unfortunately the high growth stocks that get impacted the most in the short term.
10/8/2018
14:42
martywidget: 07 August 2018 ...Despite the rapid share price rise, analysts at Jefferies said there is still an investment case for investors to take a look at the stock. Equity analyst Ed Mundy noted that expansion into the US – a relatively untapped market for the company – could be a game changer. “The US is the largest growth opportunity for Fever-Tree over the medium term given premiumisation trends in spirits and culture of long drink mixability,” he said. While in the UK premium mixers account for around 39 per cent of the market, in the US it is just 5 per cent. “Assuming that the current premium mixer market can grow from current 5 per cent to 20 per cent, this represents a potential £167m incremental opportunity versus 2017 group sales of £170m. This implies that if the US is successful, Fever-Tree’s group sales could double,” Mundy noted. Meanwhile, non-tonic sales, which currently account for 25 per cent of the business, could be more lucrative, with the firm launching a dark spirits range. “We estimate that the premium dark spirits market (e.g. whiskey, brandy and rum) is 10x the size of the premium gin market,” the analyst said. However, there are risks for the business. Indeed, competitor Schweppes remains the market leader in tonic water with a market share of 37 per cent in the UK. Although the premium gin recovery is expected to grow over the next few years, changes in consumer choices or lifestyle could also negatively impact sales. Overall, he said the underlying core business has a valuation of around 3,300p per share assuming average group revenue growth of 23 per cent between 2018 and 2021. However, if an integration to the US is successful it could add another 3,000p of value per share. Currently the stock has a share price of 3,586p per share. Https://www.trustnet.com/news/829885/jefferies-three-under-the-radar-uk-stocks-for-active-investors/
23/2/2018
07:47
sogoesit: Danny, as Villa says, it seemed a pretty odd question (for an accountant) but referring to gainer/loser lists share price (amount) movements are based on the underlying pence, or monetary, absolute change. Share price percentage gainers/losers reduce the share price movements to ranking them based on their movements as a percentage of their own share price. In general terms absolute price is not meaningful to rank gainers/losers... what matters is how much in proportional terms they have changed and also how much this change has been compared against an index or market. (Note Villa’s point about spreadbetting which is based on monetary absolutes... making high monetary numbered shares more interesting..)... ... if I’m right otherwise I better stick to the Great Wall! (But always beware, the market can make fools of us all and certainly has done in my case on numerous occasions ;-) )
24/1/2018
14:24
villarich: I've done some really rough analysis based on the limited financial information given in today's update to see where the share price might go over the next year or so. They are really rough figures with roundings but hopefully it all makes sense. I'll revisit when the full results are released. Last years reported Post-Tax Profit was £27.5m from revenues of £102m (roughly 27% of revenue was turned into PTP). Using that percentage on today's reported revenue figure, I'm getting £45.6m in profit which gives us EPS of 39.6p. I've rounded this to 40p for ease. I get a current multiple of 104 based on 24p EPS. If we applied 104 to 40p EPS we get a share price of £41. It would be wrong though to apply 104 to this EPS because the current multiple has that growth factored in. If we apply a multiple of 60 (this time last year the multiple was around 60) to 40p EPS we get £24. Right where we are now. If EPS does come in at 40p then EPS growth is 66%. Let's assume growth continues at a similar, albeit slightly lower pace of 50% this year. That gives us an EPS of 60p in 2018. Applying a multiple of 60 to that gives us a share price of £35.64. Again it's probably wrong to apply the same multiple again so a multiple of 50 gives us an share price of £29.70 (18% up from now). As I said there's loads of assumptions in here but I'd be interested to see the EPS in the full results and will revisit my thoughts. Overall, I won't be selling any time soon. Then again I wont be topping up either. It's a hold for me.
Fevertree share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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